Bracket News: Final Four Saturday

We’ve finally reached Final Four Saturday.  I happen to think its a great doubleheader of hoops.

We get two March Maestros in Izzo and Coach K. Love them or hate them, any unbiased basketball fan has to enjoy watching these coaches pull all the right strings in guiding their teams on Final Four runs. They’ve only met once in the NCAA Tournament, 11 years ago in the 1999 Final Four. That was Izzo’s first and a year before he broke through a won a national title. We’re a win by each away from having a titanic coaching matchup in the championship game. In a sport thats still driven in large part by the man on the sidelines, that’s juicy. Personally, I want both or none. If Sparty wins the opener, the basketball fan in me will be pulling a bit more for Duke so we get the Izzo/Krzyzewski chess match. I dont want one without the other, so a Butler win might squash whatever fandom I could muster up for Duke. Although Butler beating both Izzo and Krzyzewski en route to a championship would validate this awesome Bulldog run even more. I could handle the tournament ending with a Butler win over Duke. The adopted Hoosier in me might go as far as even relishing it a bit.

There are more than enough sentimental reasons to pull for West Virginia as well. It would be an historic national title for them as well.  A Butler/WVA final would be a battle between programs looking for their first ever national championship. I like those matches better than when one is going for their first against a power with a full trophy case. There’s less lazy stories about the intangible edge of experience. But, I am pulling for WVA because I have enjoyed the Bob Huggins Renaissance. And I really like a lot of players on this team. They’re fun to watch. I think you can make a case this is the most talented team remaining in the field, guru approved recruiting classes in East Lansing and Durham be damned.

But getting back to Huggy Bear. I know I would have laughed at you had you told me in 1992 that it would take 18 years for Huggy to reach another Final Four. Back in the spring of 1992, Huggins nearly reached the pinnacle of the sport with his rebuil Bearcat program. When he arried at Cincy, the Bearcats hadnt even made the tournament in well oer a decade. One of their starters was a walk-on from the football team. But behind the dynamic inside/outside duo of Herb Jones and Nick Van Exel, Cincy broke their NCAA drought in Year 3 of Huggins tenure and adanced all the way to the Final Four. They lost in the national semifinals in back and forth nailbiter, 76-72, to the Fab Five Freshmen of Michigan. In retrospect, it remains the most underrated win in the history of Fab Five.

Cincinnati was clearly a program on the rise. Bob Huggins was creating a national power. But not only did he never get back to the Final Four, he only made three Sweet 16s the rest of the time in Cincy. The farthest he got was the very next season, with many of the same players from the year before still chipping in,when  the Bearcats advanced into the Elite 8 before losing to eventual champ North Carolina in overtime. They had another Elite Eight run in 1996 when the Danny Forston-led club fell to Mississipi State in the regional finals.  Otherwise, Huggy’s time was marked by March underachievement. Six times in an eight year stretch, including four times in a row, the Bearcats and Huggy couldnt survive the first weekend of the tournament despite being given a top-4 seed in the region. Of course, the other trend with Cincy involved their ugly style of play on the court and brutish behavior off it. His players started getting in trouble, questions arose over the graduation rates and when he himself got picked up on DUI charges, the university canned him after the 2005 season, which ended in, what else, a second round NCAA tournament loss.

Some are bothered by that checkered resume. I am not so much. Huggins has helped a whole lot more kids than harm. And he deserves a second chance at coaching. I have enjoyed this West Virginia Renaissance of his. He was a walking profanity at Cincy. Almost as much the show as anything else. He’s mellower on the WVA sideline. Beyond that, its just how his teams have played in the three seasons he’s been there. Those Bearcat teams were brutes and they played a collegiate style of Bad Boy/Detroit Piston style. But, once Van Exel left they never had any dynamic scorers that had you on the edge of your seat. Just defensive beatdowns. It was boring, ugly hoops. This Mountaineer team is beginning to show off a mean defensive edge like those squads, but with so much more offensive elegance and effeicieny that I sometimes have to remind myself I’m watching a Huggins coached team. So, I’ve been fascinated with this team all year. Its only fitting they’re still around the final weekend. And I’m happy for Huggins. He was too good a coach to be remembered as a March underachiever.

So, we have two March coaching legends, the Huggy Renaissance and, of course, the exciting, mid-major march of Butler. We might not have the sexiest quartet of teams vying for the final prize this weekend, but it doesnt make the emotion or the storylines behind these teams any less dramatic.

This first game has me in knots. I wont lie. I have been stuck in rut most of the tournament. I’ve still had a great season betting college hoops, but the tournament has been nothing but a taffy pull. One thing that’s worked has been betting on Butler. Both times last week. And, in their opener against UTEP. They have stood out as the only reliable thing I’ve done the last two weeks. So, Let It Ride on the Bulldogs, right? You have to dance with what brought ya, correct?

Not so fast my friend. Have you seen who is in other corner? Its that March behometh Michigan State. And, frankly, a jamie mac moneymaker the whole time. My first year gambling was 2000. The Flintsones treated me very, very well, thank you very much. Thats started a March lover affair thats burned this whole time. Save for the occassional lapse, like that first round collapse against Nevada in 2004, Sparty has always made more cash for me, than lost during this pursuit. Last year’s four game run from the second round to the Final Four was the second most money I had won backing a single team after the 2003 Syracuse club. Even 13 days ago, I won a nice, big bet in that classic game against Maryland. Then, rather inexplicably, I ditched them. Without Lucas, I thought they would lose to the elite D of Northern Iowa. And, then to the more athletic Vols. As it turns out, the Sparty’s old reliable March reputation carried the day. My money was better served as logs for the fire. I learned a lesson the hard way: Dont fade Izzo in March coin flips.

So, here I am, looking a team that has been awesome to me this March. Playing a team that’s been killing me. One of my favorite experts in the desert loves State. Should I follow that lead? In the end, I just cant. I cant shake my initial belief that Butler has enough to get this game. With Lucas out, I think Butler is the better team. The defensive guard tandem of Veasley and Nored will be better than anything State has seen out of the Big 10. This is going to be a tough defensive chore for MSU. Many feel the Spartans can just win this game by dominating the boards, but Butler is an awesome defensive rebounding team. They will more than nuetralize MSU on the glass. This is the best team the Spartans will have played so far in the tournament. It wont be for Butler. They faced bigger matchup and talent disadvantages last week, but still dispatched Syracuse and Kansas State. Many think Butler will shrink in the Final Four moment, but I dont think so. Not in front of their home crowd. Not with the ton of experience they have. Not after taking out two of the best teams in the country last weekend. I wont go big on this game, nor do I have as much confidence in it as I did with their games last week, but I am sticking on the Butler Bandwagon.

Why was everyone pining for a Kentucky/Kansas matchup in the Final Four? The assumption was they were the best two teams in the land, with everyone else playing for runners-up prizes. Well, not according to the KenPom rankings. Duke is the top team. West Virginia is #5. These teams have been that high in his rankings most of the season. This is a legit Final Four game between a pair of clubs who have been performing as well and as efficient as anybody else since the first tip-off the season. Since it lacks a second historial brand name, its not billed as such. But, in the vacuum of the 2010 season, this is a game between two of the elite clubs in the land.

Who will win? I say West Virginia. And I am taking those 2.5 points. I think WVA has more talent, they are as well coached, play a mean 1-3-1 zone, and has enough big game, star power to rise to the moment. I thought Baylor had Duke on the ropes a few times because they were dominant athletically. The same thing will happen tonight, but WVA is a more efficient, better team than Baylor. That combination will be enough to do in the Blue Devils. I feel the Mountaineers are the most talented team remaining of the four. Everyone on the floor can be an offensive option in a pinch. They’ve got this far, even though they have yet to get an A-game from their best player DeSean Butler. I have a feeling we get his best game tonight. And, I doubted how effective Mazzula could be as an option on offense, but, well, last week silenced those questions. I think Huggy Bear’s redpemtive March continues for at least another game.

But those are just my picks. I do much better in college hoops finding a few winners on a board with over 100 games like any Saturday during the regular season. I wouldnt worry if you look at the games and think something different. These games are tossups.

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