Well that was exciting, wasnt it? I feel like I watched one of those classic Stanley Cup Playoff multi-OT games given how late we all were up watching that fantastic game between Kansas State and Xavier. The classic theater thats become the 2010 NCAA Tournament gave us another killer act last night, with another favorite to win it all eliminated by a mid-major upstart, a battle of culture contrasts that I couldnt take my eyes off despite the seemingly lopsided score and, of course, the KSU/Xavier game, narrated by the inimitable Gus Johnson, which, frankly, was one of the best games I’ve seen in a few years. Through it all, the JCB didnt make any money, however. A great, great pick with Butler over Sryacuse, but my other two unit play on Xavier was just a push. And by losing both single unit plays, we ended with a 1-2-1 record and a loss of 0.20 Units. Sigh. But, it was worth it. I love college basketball. And I love seeing it the topic of such intense water cooler discussion the following day. It’s been quite a fun ride.
The second set of Sweet 16 games tonight promises more intrigue. Can St. Mary’s and Northern Iowas continue to buck the establishment? Can Duke carry the torch for #1 seeds? Can Ohio State and Tennessee match their 2007 Sweet 16 game, perhaps the best tournament game in recent years until last night happened? And, for me, can the Big 10 team get at least one win? I have a juicy wager on the conference going Over 7.5 wins. Through two rounds, they have 7. Tonight, with Michigan State, Purdue and Ohio State, I have three chances to get one win. I am so keyed up about this play, that I might not pick any other games. I wonder how many folks out there believe me when I say that? I dont know if I even believe it myself. Anyway, here’s a quick look, with links, on all four games tonights. Picks may or may not follow.
#2 OHIO STATE VS #6 TENNESSEE. LINES, OSU -5, O/U 134
These teams are more than familiar with one another after having played three times in the last four season. Those games were settled by a combined eight points. Three years ago, in the Oden/Conley year in Columbus, these teams played a Sweet 16 classic. The Vols lept out to a 17-point lead, but a furious Buckeye rally eventually caught and passed the Vols en route to a 85-84 win. It paved the way for the Final Four for OSU. For the Vols, it was a bitter defeat, ending what some felt was their best team and Final Four chance in years. The only way to ease the pain of that stining defeat for the Vols would be to extract some revenge tonight and beat the Buckeyes.
This will be a battle of Ohio State’s starting five versus the depth of the Vols. OSU rarely uses bench minutes. The Vols play 11 guys who catch double digit minutes. However, this is not your prototypical Bruce Pearl team that uses it bodies and athletes to press, press, press all day. This teams’s bones have been made this winter by playing stifling half court defense and using size matchup advantages on the inside to make it hard to shoot against. Pearl may press some, as a way of throwing wrinkles at the Bucks, but I would be surprised if they went away from what has been so positive for them over the last couple of months. Look for the Vols to go big with Wayne Chisolm and Brian Williams playing a lot of minutes together in an attempt to stfile OSU’s offense and get them in foul trouble by trying to check that size. Ohio State is 7th in the KenPom ratings in offensive efficiency and 4th in eFG%. The Vols are 8th in defensive efficiency and 29th in eFG% defense. Cue the something has got to give cliches.
For Ohio State, its really all about the man, the legend, the Villian Evan Turner. Can he carry the load tonight? I feel the Vols can do a decent enough job on the ancillary OSU weapons like Diebler, Bufuord and Lighty. They’re 10th in the country in 3-point FG% D, forcing foes into less than 30-percent shooting from behind the arc. If they can keep Deibler and Buford from going off from behind the arc, they will put a major crimp into OSU’s offense. But, can they contain Turner in the scoring and rebounding department? Thats the question. Can they harass him into a big turnover game. He does have a flaw of committing too many turnovers. Even though they wont press a ton tonight, the Vols still are really active in the passing lanes, with quick defensive hands. They will force TOs get steals and easy transition buckets. Can they showcase the one weakness in Turner’s game when he’s brining the ball up the floor or trying to work inside against the UT bigs?
#4 MICHIGAN STATE VS #9 NORTHERN IOWA. LINES, PICK ‘EM, O/U 122
The buzz around this contest is how do the Spartans adjust to life without Kailon Lucas. It’s going to be a big challenge for the Spartans. Michigan State is not lackig in talent, but they’re playing one of the best defenses in the land tonight without arugably their top and most clutch gun. Much has been made about how Cinderellas typically fail to advance once they arrive in the Sweet 16 land, but thats not necessarily the case when it comes to the 8/9 seeds that survive the subregional round. Those teams are actually 12-5 in the Sweet 16. History suggests that Northern Iowa will win this game, unlike the double digit seeds who advance this far. Some have gone as far as comparing them to the 2006 George Mason team that made the Final Four. The Panthers still have a lot of work to do before that, however.
As stated many times on this blog, Northern Iowa has an elite defense. They hold teams to 0.89 points per possession. They’re the 2nd ranked scoring defense in the nation. They’re a bear to shoot against. And, they’re one of the top defensive rebounding teams in the nation. Going up against MSU’s relentless work on the offensive glass will be the stat matchup to watch tonight. If UNI closes out on the one-and-dones like Butler did against the Cuse last night, then UNI will at least have tempo and pace control of this game. If MSU is cashing in on second chance points from the get go, you’d have to wonder if the Panthers have enough firepower, Ali Farokhmanesh dagger shooting heroics aside, on offense to match those points.
We had some great interior matchups in this one as well. The Panthers throw Jordan Egleeder and Adam Koch, statistically their two best players, on the floor as 70foot, 6/9 bookends in the front court. Of course, MSU always has big, physical bodies to bang with. Raymar Morgan, Draymond Green and Delvin Roe might not be a large as either Kock or Eglseder, but they’re more athletic and very capable of winning the battle up front. There are indications that UNI may go smaller, limit Eglseder’s minute’s in favor of the more athletic, scrappy forward Lucas O’Rear who had some key defensive stops in the second half upset of Kansas.
Can Farokhmanesh keep dazzling us with bold three points shots? Can Chris Allen shake off his own injury and help make up for the loss of Lucas? Both teams had signature, emotional wins in the second round? Does Korrie Lucious have any more hero left in him? Who wins the battle and stays out of of foul trouble up front, Morgan or Koch? Who will be more powered up and recharged in this one? A 9-seed is bascially a pick ‘em in the Sweet 16. Interesting.
#1 DUKE VS #4 PURDUE. LINES, DUKE -8.5, O/U 127
This would be the game of the night if Purdue was at full strenghth. With Robbie Hummell in tow, they are a better team than Duke. Without him, it has been a fight to maintain any semblance of a decent-looking offense. That’s not good heading into a matchup with one of the best defensive outfits in the land. It’s the only Sweet 16 matchup in which the seeds held serve during opening weekend. Yet, it’s the biggest point spread on the board. I dont know what that means, other than somebody feels the betting public wont touch Purdue unless they a large head start. Boiler guard Chris Kramer has a history of making big plays, was the star that advanced them into this round and probably needs a repeat performance to get the Boilers though this one. Boilers fans have a message for their chrages: just keep fighting. That was the mantra they took last weekend and its the same chip they will carry on thir shoulders tonight as big dogs against the Dukies. Even though I am an IU Alum, I pull for the Boilers in March. I mean, some of my best friends are Boilers. I like to help them with their reading skills and cheer for their team when we are together. Besides, beating Duke is something worth supporting your rival. I just dont know if they can muster the offense to pull this off. Even if they show the same grit as they had against Texas A/M, it might only be enough to keep them in range of the Blue Devils. Purdue will have to play their A+ defensive game to steal this one. A bigtime double double and no foul trouble from JaJuan Johnson would help as well.
And, well, we are running out of time. I was swamped today at the real job. I cant offer much on the Baylor/St. Mary’s game, other than the best one-on-one matchup tonight is between Bear pivot Epke Udoh and the Gaels big man Omar Sanham. Both are 25 points, 13 rebounds in their sleep. Can either shut the other down. If so, it will the trump card that gets either through the next round. so, with first tip fast approaching, let’s move on to the picks
UNI +2 over MSU, 2 Units……this line is what it is because people love Izzo and dont think he will lose to a mid major with time to prepare. I am staking these units on what I have been saying for a month now. The Panthers are an elite defense. They will make MSU look terrible tonight without Lucas. They have the bigs and proven ability to nuetralize Sparty on the offensive glass. In time, the Spartans can become good without Lucas. I just think this is not the D you want to go up against without the heart of your offense. They held the Jawhawks 20 points below their season average. They make MSU look ugly tonight.
St. Mary’s +5 over Baylor, 2 Units…..I will keep riding the Gaels. ODU’s size was ok against Udoh, but they didnt have much a perimeter game. The Gaels do. Samhan and Udoh will be fascinating. But, I like this Gael backcourt and think they shoot themselves into a game thats closer than the experts think.
Purdue +8.5 over Duke, 1 Unit……caveat emptor on this one. I get crushed when I go against Duke. But, I think folks are underrating the Boilers. Defensively, they are still very good and can contain Duke. I also thinking of putting a unit on the Under 127 as well. Still weighing that option. Weighing no longer. I put a unit on the Under in this game and the UNI/MSU. Duke Uner is 127. UNI/MSU Under is 122. Two Units on the Duke Under, a single unit on the MSU/UNI total.
Vols +5 (-115) over OSU, 1 Unit…..I just cant help myself. I dont know if following my lead on this one or the Purdue game is good e-vice
