I wont lie: I am a little drained. Next March, I may have to pace myself better if I’m too throw myself into double and triple posts a day during the month of March. I needed a short break as everything was blending together. There were pleny of pundits out there chronicling after the fact the crazy first weekend of the tournament, so I bowed out for a few days, caught up a bit on my real job and visited this place in town they call the ‘gym’ to decompress from the 24/7 that college basketball had become for me and this blog the second March 1 rolled around.
We are sitting hours away from the beginning of what I feel is the most compelling Sweet 16 in years. The bounty of mid-majors, upstarts and Cinderellas makes it so, but so too does their added strength in play compared to their brethern in past tournaments. Rarely do those teams advance this far but between the efficient explosions of Cornell, elite defense of Northern Iowa, inside/outside greatness of St. Mary’s and the constant staying power of Butler and Xavier, there is a sense that these teams not only can give a good showing this round, but they arent far fetched contenders for Indianapolis. I havent been able to shake the feeling all week that one of these teams will survive this weeked. And, I dont care who it is. I’m cheering for them all.
The tournament has been spurred by these gate crashers, whose overall first weekend success has led to a Sweet 16 with the highest cumulative sum of the remaining seeds since 2000. This year’s sum is 80. Since 2001, the nine-year average has been 66.33, so stacked up against the most recent numbers, this has been one of the craziest tournaments in at least 10 years. Consider that last year, the sum of seeds in the Sweet 16 was 48.
The last time the seed count was this high this late into the tournament was in 2000 when the Sweet 16 seeds equalled 85. Like this year, there is only one Sweet 16 matchup in which the seeds held serve from the first weekend. Three six seeds advanced into the regionals as did a pair of eight and ten seeds. But, the two eight seeds were North Carolina and Wisconsin, both from power leagues and hardly true form Cinderellas. Both did advance to the Final Four, but lost to Florida and Michigan State. The 10 seeds included Gonzaga, who had made a run to the Elite Eight the previous year, and the Tommy Amaker coached Seton Hall team out of the Big East. So, we had some shocking seeds advance deep into the 2000 tournament, but there wasnt the true little guy feel to the Regionals that we have this year.
The better comparison to this season might be the 1999 tournament. The sum of Sweet 16 seeds that year was a whopping 88. It included an amazing five double digits seeds: a 13, 12 and three 10-seeds. While the 13-seed was an out-of-place looking Oklahoma squad with Edward Najera, and one of the 10-seeds was the Big 10′s Purdue, the rest were decidedly little guys. The world first learned about Gonzaga during this tournament and fellow mid-majors Miami Ohio and Southwest Missouri State also made the Sweet 16 as double digit seeds. Only the Zags advanced another round, so hopefully the 2010 tournament can at least separate itself from 1999 and continue with at least a couple of these great stories into the regional finals.
I am stoked to see if any of these storylines can continue. If all breaks well, we can still have a mid-major Final Four. As unlikely as that might still be, its out there as a legit possibility. And something I am pulling for. I can live with a Final Four with Cornell and Northern Iowa. Billy Packer will be rolling over in his grave. And thats a good thing. Onto the previews for tonight’s games.
WEST REGIONAL
#2 KANSAS STATE VS #6 XAVIER. Lines KSU -5, O/U 151
Can we really call a Xavier program on its way to its third straight Sweet 16 a mid-major anymore? Xavier is a constant in this Tournament. Xavier was Gonzaga almost 15 years before the Zags made their own March name. They made their modern tournament debut in 1986 and have made 18 NCAA tournaments since. Of all the upstarts remaining, the Musketeers are the one I want to see cut the nets down. I have been a big fan of the program ever since they first appeared on the scene in the mid-1980s with the potent and high scoring backcourt of Byron Larkin and Stan Kimbrough. Those X teams stunned Missouri in the first round in the 1987 tournment as a 13-seed before losing to Duke in the next round. Later in the decade, armed with Tyron Hill and Derek Strong at the forward spots, the pushed eventuall national champion Michigan to the limit in the first round as a 14-seed. The next season, in 1990, the made the Sweet 16 before losing to Texas. Think about that. An upstart mid-major had bookend forwards that played more than a decade in the Association. Later, in 1994, they had another future NBA star Brian Grant manning the frontcourt and they nearly upset top-ranked Indiana in a second round game as an 8-seed. They moved from the Horizon League to the Atlantic 10 during the 1990s and after a couple average seasons adjusting to the league upgrade, they’ve made the NCAAs in nine out of the last 10 years, typically winning games each time. The Musketeers are 13-7 in the tournament since 2004, they’ve been to a pair of Elite Eights and now three Sweet 16s in a row. It’s time for them to take the next step and get into the Final Four. It would be a culmination of a 30 year tranformation from uppity, small conference 14-seed to legit basketball power. We’ll see tonight if Xavier can advance?
Standing in their way tonight is a Kansas State club, on their best run in years. Hopefully Kansas State fans are enjoying the ride. They’re back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1988 when Mitch Richmond ran the floor. This game is the only rematch in the Sweet 16 from a contest earlier in the year. These teams played in early December at KSU. The Wildcats jumped on Xavier early, their bigs outshing Xavier’s front court in a game that neither of the hot shot guards on either team has good nights shooting the rock. They took a 10-point halftime lead and cruised the rest of the way. While Xavier hopes tonight’s rematch is a whole different ballgame, some Wildcats are the ones saying they’re still the ones with revenge of their minds from a a beatdown 27 months ago. Sounds like a rivalry may be brewing. Both teams have an array of forwards they can rotate into the game. The backcourt battle of Pullen/Clemente vs Crawford/Holloway ought to be a main attratction for the night. Xavier is playing so much better than they did in December. Unlike their match in December, this one wont be decided until the final minutes.
#1 SYRACUSE vs #5 BUTLER. Lines, Syracuse -7, O/U 138
Butler isnt much different than Xavier. I’d like to see both make the Final Four, but I’d settle for a regional championship game between the two on Saturday. The Bulldogs really didnt become a March Madness participant until 1997, but they’ve made 10 tournament fields since then. Like Xavier, they’ve grown from possible dangerous first round out to a porgram with annual expectations of playing somewhat deep into the field. This is their third Sweet 16 since 2003. They’ve never been farther than this round, however, bowing out in 2003 to Oklahoma by 11 points in 2003 and to Florida in 2007 by nine points. Will another Final Four contender take them down like in this years, or does Butler have some more mojo left. They’re going to need it all to slide by Syracuse as the not many teams are playing better over the last 4 months than the Orange. It’s Championship or Bust for the Orange. Butler, meanwhile, is seeking some added national prominence and stands two wins from playing in a Final Four in their home city.
Statistically speaking, this isnt that big of mismatch. it’s a matchup of the 4rth ranked Cuse vs the 17th ranked Bulldogs per KenPoms’s ratings. Both teams play great defense. Butler is 11th in the nation in points allowed and are in the top-20 percent of all teams in eFG% D and Turnover percentage. The Orange, with their famous 2/3 zone defense is among the hardest defenses to shoot against. Using tradition stats, their 28th in the country in both FG% and 3-point D. Using tempo free stats, they’re in the top 14-percent in the country in eFG%. Like Butler, they can also turn you over ranking 60th in the country in TO%
Of course, the challenge tonight is Butler’s defense has to shut down one of the elite offenses in the country, while Syracuse just has to contain a good offense. The Orange have the sixth best scoring offense in the country and are 2nd in the country in eFG%. Butler doesnt score nearly as many points and arent at such an elite level as the Cuse when it comes to making shots overall. But, at 45th in the country at eFG%, its not like they are scrubs either. Here is where Butler has statistical advantages. They never turn the ball over and are excellent at forcing turnovers. While the Cuse D is just as good at forcing miscues, their only offensive weakness is their own ball sloppiness. They’re 224th in the country in turnover percentage on offense. Can Butler maintain their TO numbers on both sides of the ball? Also, they are among the best in the country on the defensive boards, going up against the Orangemen who are on thebest on the offensive glass. So, watch the turnover margin and track the rebounding game after Syracuse shoots. Xavier has the bodies and skill set to win those stat battles. And, if they do, expect them to be in this one until the very end. And, of course, it will be a big bonus knowing that Arinze Onuaku will be missing tonight’s game with a quad injury.
SOUTH REGIONAL
#2 WEST VIRGINIA VS #11 WASHINGTON. LINES, WVA -4, O/U 146
West Virgina is climbing the ladder towards elite status. Washington underahieved throughout the season, but are finally playing up to expectations and are peaking at the right time. Despite their 11-seed, they dont consider themselves a Cinderella. And really they shouldnt. Most folks in November would have predicted this club as a Sweet 16 team. The progression of guard Isiah Thomas has been the biggest factor thats spearheaded the Huskies run these last few weeks.
Warning: My opinion on this game will likely be worth zilch. Did you see me get crushed last weekend betting against the Pac 10? And, I faded UW in the Pac 10 title game way back when. Part of me feels it’s time to align myself with the ‘if you cant beat them, join them’ club. I almost feel compelled to take the points and the Huskies in this one. Of course, might that be a Karmic recipe for DeSean Butler to score 30 points of for Joe Mazzula’s surgically repaired shoulder to magically heal itself and allow him to shoot the ball like he used to.
The thing is I felt that West Virginia was one of the more balanced teams in this field. It can play up tempo, it can play half court, it can beat you with their star, it can beat you with nasty defense. Anyway, anyhow. But, bad news hit the club with a broken foot in practice knocked out Truck Bryant for the rest of the tournament. This is no insignificant loss. He’s their point guard, quickest guy on the team and one of their more clutch three-point shooters. Going up against the speedy, up-tempo loving Huskie backcourt, this will be a chore and poses several question marks for the ‘Neers. Mazzula takes over the point, but his stamina, defense and ability to score are all up in the air. This injury to the Mountaineers fourth-leading scorer puts a whole new spin on this game.
Otherwise its a classic Pac 10 offense vs Big East matchup. The Huskies won one of those last week in the first round when they climbed out of a big hole to beat Maruqette in the closing seconds. At full strenghth, the Mountaineers pose a much bigger challenge, given their experience. It’s the 12th ranked scoring offense of UW going against the 50th ranked scoring D of WVA. Can the Huskies keep this explosive ride going? Can West Virginia overcome a sudden injury and get Huggy Bear back to the Final Four for the first time in 18 years? Can Mazzula come close to checking Thomas? In a game between two of the better offensive rebounding teams in the land, who can close out defensive stops with one-and-dones?
#1 KENTUCKY VS #12 CORNELL. LINES, UK -8.5, O/U 140
Personally, for me and many others, this is the game of the night. It’s a total culture clash. Senior-laden, Ivy League team vs college basketball bluest of blue blood, a team of uber recruits, somewhat mercenary in creation. Its a team of players who scored 1600 on their SATs in their sleep against a team whose coach kinda, sorta, maybe had somebody take the SAT test for his star player at his last coaching locale. And while it might be shameful stereotyping, you cant escape the fact that Cornell and Kentucky couldnt be more different from one another. Tonight, those contrasts play out on one of college sports biggest stages.
Cornell faces a long history of fail as far as their seed goes in this round of the draw. Consider that 19 times a 12/13 seed has advanced into the regionals to play a top seed. And all 19 times, they were eliminated. Most of the time in woodshed fashion with an average margin of defeat just under 15 points. The two closest games in these matchups, however, were a 2-point win by UNLV over Ball State in 1990 and Michigan’s 8-point win over George Washington. Those were the only two single digit outcomes, yet that Vegas team and the Fab Five Sophomores at Michigan are among the most talented teams in NCAA history. With that perspective, maybe its not out of the question that Cornell can compete against the ultra talented, yet young and inexperienced Wildcats.
Even though past double digit seeds have generally been worked over by top seeds in this round, the Big Red clearly have a lot more game than their predecessors. There are plenty of reasons why Kentucky fans should worry tonight. They are 3rd in the country in eFG%. Nobody shoots the trey better than they do. And, well unlike every Ivy teamsover the last 30 years and all those double digit seeds that feel to the #1′s in this round, the Big Red have next level players. Randy Whittman has the quickest release since Dan Marino. He’ll play for money somewhere. So to will 7-footer Jeff Foote and point guard Louis Dale. How UK matches up with Foote will be intesresting. Much has been made of Cornell nearly winning at Phog Allen Fieldhouse, and even with NBA ready Cole Aldrich in the middle, Kansas still had to double team Foote all day. Double teaming anyone on this Cornell team is dangerous, buecause they have shooters at every spot on the floor who can make you pay if you leave them open. Calipari almost has to let Foote get his points with single coverage so as not to be killed by a rain of outside shots that destroyed Temple and Wisconsin last weekend. Can Foote take over the game if he’s not double teamed? Can he force Calipari into a different defensive strategy? How Cornell’s deliberate, yet lethal offense matches up against the future NBA all-star team that is Kentucky is the most intriguining storyline of the night. Cornell will run handoff play after handoff play. They’ll also try and pick and roll UK to death. If they give Whittman an inch, he will let it launch. I have a sneaky suspicion that Cornell can pull off a major surprise tonight. But that stuff is for the picks portion of this treatise. Speaking of which……
PICKS? PICKS!
I am an underdog player. Always have been. Always will. I am not making exceptions tonight, despite the public presumption that chalk will carry the day now that Cinderella is squaring off against the elites of the hoop world. Phooey to that. Whose to say Xavier or Butler arent part of said elite? Anyway, here goes:
Butler +7 over Syracuse, 2 Units……apparantly I didnt learn my lesson with the hide my butt took with the Zags on Saturday. Butler is a more complete team than the Zags. Tougher. More physical. Better defensively. Not as sloppy with the ball. Nor do I think they’ll freeze up against that Sryacuse zone the way the Zags did in the first half, which buried them. If Matt Howard can stay out of foul trouble, I give Butler a 50/50 chance of winning this game. I feel that Butler has ample time to prep for the Orange’s tricky zone, plenty of smarts and patience to work for open looks and enough shooting acument to make it payoff. Plus, I think the Orange still makes a ton of sloppy mistakes. Butler wins the turnover battle and with those extra possessions ought to score enough to keep this game closer than the experts think.
Xavier +5 over Kansas State, 2 Units…….I think this game plays out so much differently than their match in December. While KSU has improved as a team since then, so too as Xavier. The Musketeers were barely a .500 team back then, trying to rebuild a little bit on the court with new faces in key roles. Jordan Crawford wasnt even close to the difference maker he is now. Back in December his play was so ragged, he endured a benching. Now, he’s rising up draft charts faster than his first step. Xavier has barely lost since that game. In fact, just twice, on the road to Dayon and in OT against Richmond. They had 14 turnovers in Manhatten three months ago. But, they only had 13 combined TOs last week. I think thats the team we see play tonight. The difference in December was better frontcourt play from KSU and their killer home court edge. Tonight’s game is, of course, on a nuetral court. And, like their whole team, Xavier’s front court is playing at a different level now. Besides does 12-4 ATS in their last 16 mean anything to you? The Wildcats athleticism really proved the difference last weekend against BYU. I dont think that factors in tonight at all.
Washington +4 over West Virginia, 1 Unit……i am tired of getting killed by the Huskies. I am joining them tonight. I think the point guard injury for WVA is happening at the worst time against the worst foe. I think the Huskies win this game tonight. Hopefully my weight wont crush the UW bandwagon.
Cornell -9 (-120) over Kentucky, 1 Unit……sharps were on Cornell early in the week, thinking UK plays to undisicplned and their coach lacks gameday acumen. Good enough for me. This line has been plunging all week, following the wiseguys lead. It’s actually at -8 right now. But, it was 8.5 when I played it and a bought it up to 9, so I almost have it at the opening line that the pros thought a worthy of number to outlay cash on during the front end of the week. I think back to the Vanerbilt game, an ugly, low scoring affair that the Cats won by a bucket. This game plays out in much of the same way. Cornell wont have the home court edge Vandy had that night, but they’re a much better basketball team. And, I cant shake this feeling in my gut that Cornell wins tonight. So, I will take my chances with these points.
Not sure how I am dividing up the units tonight. Thinking of making some of these double plays, just not sure which. I’ll update accordingly. And, I will be checking out the props as well to see if there’s anything I like. Stay tuned.
