Bracket News: Sunday Second Round

Well, yesterday was interesting. We saw a 1, 2 and 3 seed all lose. Northern Iowa wrote the story of the tournament by taking out Kansas, by far the consensus favorite to win this tournament before it began. Want a stat to make you think? Yesterday, we mentioned the sum of total seeds in the second round this year wasnt much higher than last year, despite all the wackiness during the first round. Well, that will change in the regional round. Last year, the sum of seeds in the Sweet 16 was 49. This year it’s already 47 and we only have half the field booked for next week.

 Six leagues already have representation into next weekend’s Sweet 16.  One league doesnt have a qualifier yet is the Big 10. No worries. At least not yet. My local 11 has four chances today to build on their 4-1 2010 tourney record and get teams into the Sweet 16. Ohio State and Wisconsin are solid favorites. Michigan State and Purdue are coin flips. I need four wins combined from these teams the rest of the way to win toe Over 7.5 bet. So, I am already more than interested in half the action today. Here’s a quick peak at the quartet of Big 10 games today with picks on the whole day at the bottom of the page.

ACC/BIG 10 CHALLENGE

The Big 10 won the challenge for the first time ever in November. Now, two of its three regular season co-championships will have to carry that momentum against ACC foes. The final spots in the Midwest Regionals are up for grabs when Ohio State plays Georgia Tech and Michigan State play Maryland.

NBA Draftniks love this OSU-Georgia Tech game. All it does is include Evan Turner and Derek Favors, only the number 2 and 3 players on most draft boards, behind John Wall. Not to mention potential first rounders William Buford and Gani Lawal. A lot of folks are already saying the biggest winner of the weekend are the Bucks, who have seen their Region of Death turn into the one that has blown up everyone’s brackets. Kansas is now out of the way, but with all due respect to the Buckeyes, the are hardly a sure thing for this game, let alone next week in a regional semifinal game against Tennessee. I think the Jawhawks loss opens this whole bracket up for everyone still standing. Including Georgia Tech, a team whose roster is as talented as just about anyone else in the land. With Favors and Lewis, they have a big edge over the Bucks on the interior. The difference today is that Ohio State has more perimeter weapon than Oklahoma State did in facing Tech the other night with similar matchup issues inside. If Tech can find a way to harass one of Diebler, Buford or Lighty into an awful night, they might have a chance to steal it in the end. This is also the worst free throw shooting team in the ACC, yet they were near perfect in milking the win the other night. Can that keep up?

The Kansas loss also opens up the bracket for the winner of today’s Michigan State-Maryland game. The winner was supposed to grab next with Kansas, so there is a chance to do something special in this tournament that previously not might have been expected. But, do you know what? I think the winner here has to play about as excellent against Northern Iowa as they would have against Kansas to advance. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.  Dont you think there should be a lot more buzz over a game between the Big 10 and ACC regular season champions? I am juiced for this one. Some clutch, but perpetually up-and-down, players in this one like Greivais Vazquez, Raymar Morgan and Kailon Lucas. These teams played last year in the Old Spice Classic and the Terps, thought to be undermanned and not as good as this year’s crew, flat dismantled the Spartans, shooting close to 50-percent in an 18-point win. Does Williams have Izzo’s number as a result? The difference today might be Morgan. He and Izzo werent getting along during that holiday tournament. Morgan was even benched for a time during that weekend. When he wasnt in foul trouble, that is. Well, we’re 16 months removed and the two are more than on the same page. I sense a big game out of him today, it might be the difference. Numbers to keep track of include how does MSU, sometimes turnover prone, handle the Terps pressure D that can cause a lot of miscues. It seems when the Spartans give us a head scratching loss its because they havent valued the basketball. But on the other side, track how many second chances the Spartans, always a terror on the boards, against one of the weakest defensive rebounding teams in the nation in Maryland. When Maryland has struggled this season its because they’ve been crushed on the offensive glass. Not many teams in the ACC can do that, however, so I expect this to be a major consideration in favor of MSU this afternoon. Maryland has had a big man emerge down the stretch with Jordan Williams, but we’ll see how he holds his own banging with the always physical and deep Spartans front line. MSU has struggled at times with post players who can score, if Williams can elevate his game he will give the Terps an X-factor that MSU might not be able to match.

FUNDAMENTAL CLINIC, CORNELL VS WISCONSIN

. If you want fundamental basketball possession after possession, then this game is the clinic you are looking for. It’s Wisconsin’s 3rd ranked scoring D in the land vs Cornell’s top ranked 3-point shooting team. We’ll find out today who is the better Big Red. After watching Wofford score on their first eleventy-billion shots in the second half  and take the Badgers down to the wire, I dont doubt the Big Red can fill it up and give the Badgers at least a major run. And, in the craziness that is the 2010 Tournament, all we are really missing from the Sweet 16 is an Ivy League rep. They also had one of the more impressive first round results, so they carry a lot of momentum and swagger into this one. They wont back down from the Badgers.  I expect this to be an efficient game. It will be interesting to see if Wisconsin’s famous defense can ugly up Cornell’s game and give them a lesson in Big 10 brawn. But, Cornell can shoot down any defense throw at it. Something will have to give.

BOILERS STILL HAVE A PULSE

Purdue has a tough chore today against Texas A/M. The Aggies are one of the more underrated programs in the country. Once though to be a possible flash in the pan, they have established themselves as no worse than a year in, year out, NCAA Tournament from the Big 12. Not bad for a team that had gones decades without any success until five years ago. They are big, deep and relentless on the front line, rotating five beefy forwards in and out of the game. They aim to knock you around and off your game. This would be fascinating watching Turgeon throw all those guys at a talent like Hummel. But with their star out with an ACL injury, will the Boilermakers be able to match up with Aggies advantage up front? However, they Aggies dont get a ton of offensive production from anyone other than Donald Sloan. He’s the only Aggie in double figures. I think Purdue still has the defense to contain most anyone, we saw that Friday as they shut down a potent Siena team. In my heart, I feel the Boilers have more options on offense with Moore and Johnson to get it done in this defensive slugfest.

Picks? Picks!

Why would you want my picks at this point. This hasnt been a stellar tournament for me. After consecutive 3-3 days, I threw a 3-6 day up on the board yesterday. Thankfully, I hit the two double plays I called, so the losses havent been too severe. Depressing nevertheless that I dont appear to be closing the season strong. Oh well. Anyway, here is what I like today.

Gonzaga +7 over Syracuse, 2 Units……Orange are banged up. Not sure they will even win this game, let alone run away from the Zags. Gus Johnson is on the call and Gonzaga is in the building, so expect something dramatic. Zags are underseeded. Like a lot of mid-majors. How has that worked out for the Big Bad Boys in the field so far? There is a lot of firepower, versatility and size for both teams to match-up with today. This ought to be an awesome game, and I will be shocked and disappointed if it doesnt get decided until the final few possessions. I am a sucker for the Zags whenever they’re catching points. The Zags went 7-3 ATS this season against teams from the Power 6 leagues, 5-1 when installed as an underdog. To be sure, the Orange are the toughest test yet, other than Duke, who smoked the Zags. But with the Orange still missing Onuaku, I think it opens the door for the Zags to keep this closer than the experts think.

Georgia Tech +7, 1 Unit……Georgia Tech will be one of the best defenses the Buckeyes play all season. They’re fifth in the nation in FG Defense and allow just 65 points a game. That’s stepped up in their five postseason games, allowing less than 60 points a game. These teams really arent that far from one another on paper. Both play great defense and shoot the ball well on offense. The difference I see that will keep this close is that Tech is great at closing down the three point line. OSU is just average at it. Both teams score well from behind the arc, but Tech ought to have enough hidden points there to stay within the number.

Michigan State +2 (-120) over Maryland, 2 Units……gut pick. Personally, I think MSU is the talented team and has more players who can take over this game. Vazquez has some nice supplemental players by his side, but I think the Spartans push them around today out of their comfort zone.

Xavier pick ‘em over Pitt, 1 Unit……a rematch from last year’s Sweet 16, but the teams are totally different this time around. This year, I think it’s Xavier with Holloway and Crawford that has the better backcourt and with Love and frease the bigger, more phyical front wall. In the 2010 Tournament, of course the A10 champ will beat the Big East contender. Havent you been paying attention?

I also leaning to Missouri +6 over WVA and Cornell +5 over Wisconsin. In fact book a Unit on each. Check that.  I missed the Missou trip. Hey, a man has to eat and after that Gonzaga debacle, trust me, it was a big lunch. Nothing like grilling out your own burgers on Sunday. Anyway, so I took the unit I did use there and put it in the middle of the table with the other on on Cornell. Ok, so thats a long winded way to say that Cornell +4 is a 2-unit pick. 

As far the final games today, I cant bet against Duke, because it kills me every time, and, well, the Pac 10 has been personally boot strapping my hide the last three days. I cant pick against Cal. We’ll see about the Purdue-Texas A/M game.

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