Let’s roll call today’s second round games.
Kansas-Northern Iowa, Ohio-Tennessee and Villanova-St Mary’s! Wait, hold on, is it November? These sound like first round games of your standard Feast Week tournament.
Murray State-Butler!! No. You’re not correct. Thats Bracket Buster Saturday. I took a run in shorts yesterday. I know its not February, so you’re reading off the wrong list.
Old Dominion-Baylor, Washington-New Mexico, BYU-Kansas State!!! At least you have the calendar correct. But that’s sounds like an NIT schedule, I dont think you have the right brackets.
Wake Forest-/Kentucky!!!! Now, you’re talking. ACC vs SEC for a Sweet 16 spot. What else you got today?
Well that’s it. The Deacs and Cats is the only game of the eight today between power conferences. By the second round those league have by and large taken over and the remaining reps from those conferneces exchange blows to advance into the regionals. Not this year. We’re almost guaranteed to have a several gate crashers advance today into next weekends’s regionals. We could see as many as five double digit seeds qualify for the Sweet 16 team today. We have three bid thieves who had no chance at a bid when their league tournaments began earlier this month standing a win away from the Sweet 16. One of them, Washington, is actually favored today. In the three games without a double digit seed, two involve mid-majors. If things break right today, we have the chance to have the craziest half of any Sweet 16 field ever placed by the end of the day.
Given how rare it is for many of these schools to have advanced even this far, perhaps there’s more urgency in the air than your normal second round Saturday. History is the stack in the middle of the table today. For the players on those schools there is so much of it on the line. While everyone says their goal is to win the national championship, the reality is not everyone has the goods to go six games in a row in a field like this. But for some schools, the levels of achievement are different. Consider if Ohio would win today and advance to the Sweet 16. Or if Murray State were to do the same. Those would be equivalent of national championships. I can guarantee at least one of those cities would hold a parade for those kids. They would become legendary, holding down their unique place in the March Madness history books. They would become members of the best basketball team ever produced by their schools.
And its not just these two teams from the MAC and OVC. It’s practically everyone playing today. Consider these numbers. Kansas State, Murray State, St. Mary’s, BYU, Washington, Old Dominion, Baylor, New Mexico, Northern Iowa and Ohio have a combined 12 Sweet 16 appearances in the last 45 years, with six belonging to KState, but three of those cames years ago, at the front end of this historic slope, an ancient era where only one win–and in some cases none–was all you needed to be a Sweet 16 team. Washington with four Sweet 16s, including consecutive years in 03-0,4 is something of a brand new here. For just about everyone playing today, advancing into the Sweet 16 would be a benchmark moment in the school’s athletic history.
Kansas and Kentucky are playing today to do give us a taste of college hoop royalty and championship expectations. Even Villanova adds some elite spice to the brew, going for another Final Four and their fifth Sweet 16 appearance in the last six years. But otherwise everyone else is playing for what would be historic trips deep into the tournament. I like new blood. I enjoy watching programs surpass anything else they’ve done. I’m excited about these games. History, elimination and an extended curfew for Cinderella are the stakes today. That’s often a potent and dramatic combination in March.
We’re going to try and breakdown all the games in a couple of posts today. Since there is only one early game, let’s just hit that one here. We’ll return later in the day.
#10 St Mary’s vs #2 Villanova. Lines, Nova -5, O/U 153
So Villanova, Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher had The Thing the other day and barely escaped Robert Morris. They survived and advanced into the second round where they will meet the St. Mary’s Gaels today. Despite still being alive, the Wildcats look the shakiest of the top eight seeds in the field. They’re only 5-6 in their last 11 games and 3-9 ATS since the start of February. St. Mary’s was dead in the water for an at-large bid when they lost to Portland in mid-February. Thirty-four days and six wins later, they are a win away from the Sweet 16. Can the Gaels continue making the Big East the biggest loser in this tournament? Can Villanova use their second lease on life after the near upset to Robert Morris to surge into the regionals?
The tale of the tape in this game is amazingly similar. Both teams are lights out on offense. Nova has the 4rth ranked scoring offense in the country. St. Mary has the 16th. The Gaels are 11th in the country in shooting percentage, 5th in the land at chucking the three-ball. Villanova is also in the top-50 in both categories. Both teams have great rebounding numbers, and pay attention to the glass when the Wildcats have the ball. The Cats are in the top-10 percent in the nation on the offensive boards, but the Gaels are in the top-10 percent when it comes to defensive rebounding. Oooh, a proverbial something has got to give. KenPom loves both teams as its a matchup of the 21st and 36th rated teams in his rankings. Nova is 11th in offensive efficiency, the Gaels 15th. Nova is 60th in defensive efficiency, the Gaels are 80th. There are a combined seven players in the rotations today that are in the top-200 of KenPom’s individual ratings. With a game so close per his statistical measures, it only makes sense the KenPom projects a three point Nova win, a result that would be closer than the Experts in the Desert think.
Everyone knows the Nova guards Reynolds, Fisher and Corey Stokes. The greater college hoops world knows about Gaels pivotman Omar Samhan and their collection of sharpshooting guards like Mickey McConnell and Matthew Dellavedova. I think this game gets decided players deeper on the state sheet today. I’ll highlight a darkhorse to watch on each team.
For Villanova, pay attention to freshmen specimen Mouphtau Yarua. Yarou is about as guru approved as you can get. The 6/10, 250-pounder was a 5-star recruit, the 10th overall and 3rd rated power forward in this freshmen class. The top power forward was Demarcus Cousins. Just two spots ahead of him in the overall rankings was Xavier Henry. Arriving with almost the same bonafides as those acting as difference makers for Final Four contenders, Yarou has not had that kind of impact for the Cats. The primary reason has been health. Struck by an illness in the fall, he missed two months after starting the season as a main cog in the rotation. He played sparingly when he was well enough to return, slowly working back into game shape. His minutes have increased as February turned into March. Only in the last six games has he basically played starter minutes, and he’s almost averaging 10 points and 2 blocks a game during that run. He’s the ninth leading scorer on the team, but has had double digit scoring nights three times in the last six outings. His playing time is up eight minutes a game.
But during his own personal evolution, there’s a perception that the Cats have gone the other way, falling from contender and point spread monster to a .500 club that cant cover a spread to save its life. I buy into the fact that Nova has struggled maintaining an offensive ID during this stretch. But Yarau back in the lineup and extending his playing time is not why they’re losing. They’re not even here without him after his 17-point, 8-board and 3-block night in the heart stopper against Robert Morris. Do they beat Cincy 18 days ago without his 10 points. The Wildcats still are shaky on defense and foul a ton, but at least Yarau is giving them something steady and intimidating in that part of the game. He has multiple block shots in five of the last eight games. Without Dante Cunningham, the Cats werent really as good as last year’s team anyway, despite their scorching start to the year. Yarau is a different player right now, but at least he gives them some physique and purpose down low. We’ve seen him carry the team in an elimination game when Reynolds and Fisher cant shoot or score. What happens when he plays well and Reynolds and Fisher actually produce their vintage games? St. Mary’s doesnt want to find out. Bottomline, the kid has to play minutes. He might force a more plodding lineup on the floor, but he appears to have solved the FT problem. Allowing FTs was a growing eyesore for the Cats by mid-February. But in the six games he’s played starter minutes, they’s sent their foes to the line 14 times a game less than they had in the games in the preceding 3-4 weeks.
All said that, this will be a major chore for the freshmen blue chipper. Can he produce back to back games? He’ll be trying to do it against some tall and talented front court players for the Gaels. Notably 6/11 center Omar Samhan. It’s not often a college player average 20/10, but that’s what the senior pivotman does. He also gets three swats a game, but has stepped up his shot blocking down the stretch, upping his blocks a game to four over the last 10 contests, including six in the WCC finals win over Gonzaga. The kid has great footwork, an assortment of moves, great touch and can score in the paint using both hands.
He’s hardly a one man inside, which brings me to my surprise pick-to-click for the Gaels today–Ben Allen. Samhan plays along side the 6/10 Allen, who scored 10 a game and grabs 7.6 boards. He’s also a nice passer with more than 70 assists. When Allen has his scoring touch on, the Gaels are extremely hard to beat.
Here’s why I bring Allen up. So far a lot has been made of the former IU Hoosiers from the Sampson era starring in this tournament for other teams. Armon Bassett and Jordan Crawford dominated their games pulling Ohio and Xavier into the second round. Dont forget, Allen played two seasons for Indiana as well. But, he’s not part of the implosion that resulted after the 2008 Sampson scandal. He bailed on the program a year earlier that that. Mike Davis imported him from Australia, promising a big man with amazing three point range that would help soothe IU’s shooting woes. He had an ok freshmen season, but when Sampson arrived his game regressed. His minutes were cut. He went weeks in between made three-pointers and it was determined the kid could never play the tough inside game demanded by Sampson. So he packed his bags and settled at St. Mary’s, a program that has four other fellow Aussies on the roster.
In his final year at St. Mary’s, he’s put it all together. And, look at this, he’s an inside player. I dont know if I saw him take a 2-point shot during this wayward two seasons in Bloomington. Now he takes more than twice as many 2-poinerst as 3-pointers, although he remains a threat from deep and will typically at least bang one a game from a downtown. And he’s a beast on the defensive glass. Both clubs are great on the boards, but the Gaels have specific glass role with Samhan crashing the offensive glass while Allen clamps down on the defensive forcing one-and-dones.
Given how the former IU players are doing in March so far, Allen is my pick to click today in this game. Want actually stat proof? Ok, here goes. He didnt play all that well in the opener, scoring just six points on 3/10 shooting. He’s had 10 games this year where he’s shot theball poorly, significantly lower than his average. He’s bounced back to score 12.3 points a game in the follow up contests, including a 20-point, 9-board effort against Gonzaga in the WCC finals, the day after shooting 25-percent in the sectional semifinals. I think he continues that bounce back trend, which is important since the Gaels are 19-0 when he scores in double figures.
The Picks: St Mary’s +5, 2 Units….I’ll roll with the team that’s been peaking ever since its had its back to wall a month ago. I like the Gaels big men better and they’re seniors going against inexperienced players on the interior when it comes to Samhan vs Yarou. I think the Cats will struggle matching up there. And, I think the Gaels will eventually have a big time three-point scoring edge. The Gaels are in the top-10 in both shooting and stopping the three-ball. The Cats shoot it well, but are middle of the road when it comes to containing the arc. That’s a lot of hidden points for the team catching points. I like that. I love both of these offenses, but in the end, I just dont trust the Nova defense to be able contain the many different ways the Gaels can hurt you on offense. The Gaels D will have an easier time stopping the more one-dimensional Wildcats. I generally dont like West Coast teams playing an early game out East, but St. Mary’s has been in Providence for over three days now. Those travel issues are gone. I think this game goes down to the wire with the Gaels having an excellent shot at the straight up win. The Gaels are 4-2 ATS as an underdog and an amazing 20-5-1 ATS in non-conference games in recent years. If you’re not used to their style, it takes teams a while to figure out how to play them. They’ll give Nova fits all day.
