Did you enjoy yesterday? Already tabbed the greatest first day ever of the NCAA Tournament, Thursday’s action provided everything, and then some, that we have come to love and expect out of March Madness. Heroic buzzer beaters? Check. Cinderella? Check. Dramatic games filled with emotion? Check. Big time shot making? Check. Busted brackets? Check. It was all on display yesterday.
Lower seeds won seven games outright yesterday. The underdog went 11-5 ATS with a half dozen straight up wins. Upsets have redefined the field and taken the tournament to another level. We had a 14, 13, 11 and 10 seeds win games. Actually two 11-seeds won, as did a pair of nine seeds. A 15-seed extended a 2-seed into overtimes. We had four total overtime sessions yesterday, more than all of last year. We had one true buzzer beater with Murray State’s win over Vanderbilt, but four other games were decided on made shots or defensive stands within the final 10 seconds of clock. Ohio U, Washington and St. Mary’s–all teams who were not part of any projected field when their league sectionals began, all kept winning and advanced into the Round of 32. We had over 100 combined years of NCAA winless tournament droughts come to an end. A lot of history was made yesterday. Hopefully some of your brackets survived the chaos.
So will sanity be restored today? Who knows. But we do have some alleged heavy hitters going today from the big boy leagues. The always-solid-in-March Big 10 makes its debut with five teams going. The ACC has a quintet of teams going including its top-3 teams from the regular season standings. Big East powers Syracuse, West Virginia and Pitt take the court, looking to make amends for what was an underwhelming at best opening day for the Big Bad Big East. Good luck with those with Over 15.5 wins for the league. You have some catching up to do. But, in reality, was it really that bad of a day for the most powerful league in the land? We’ll see if chalk pushes back today. One warning, however. Doesn’t a 12-seed always win at least one game? That is one thing we didnt see yesterday. Temple, Michigan State and Texas A/M, you are hereby on Upset Alert. But, if you didnt know that already after watching yesterday then you’re dangerously out of touch.
We’re a couple of hours away from the Madness kicking back up again. Here’s a quick portrait of the Friday afternoon session. Picks at the bottom of the post.
To me one of the more intriguing games of the afternoon is the 5/12 match between Temple and Cornell. Always interesting games by the historic nature of 5/12 games alone, this one has added juice by the mere presence of the Ivy League Champ. I think Cornell is the biggest myth in the tournament. I dont mean that to be insulting. Really, I dont. They’re a couple of hours and a win away from turning that myth into real life March legend. I say myth because let’s all be honest, not many of us have seen the Big Red play this season. The regular season isnt anywhere on TV. Without a league tournament, we dont get a chance to check out how the better league teams play in elimination settings, let alone introduce ourselves to a possible Cinderella. We’re told this is a legit team by those in the know. At the end of the day, Cornell’s best result this season was a close loss to Kansas. Wait a sec? Isnt your best win a close loss to a national power also the way we described the Charlie Weiss era in South Bend? So, yeah, Cornell is a myth unless proven otherwise. They get their chance on a national stage today against the Temple Owls, the regular season and tournament champion of the Atlantic 10. The Owls have been one of better teams in the country all season long. They made this field in each of the last two years, but were bounced without much fight. Fran Dunphy has done a great job taking over from John Chaney, but is still look for his first NCAA win as an Owl coach. One team is a myth. The other is trying to re-establish its March mojo from long ago. It’s the 3rd rank FG shooting D and 4rth ranked three-point D of Temple, going up against the top-ranked three-point shooting and 17th in overall FG percentage offense of Cornell. Cue the something has to give cliches.
The second 5/12 match of the day closes the afternoon session when Texas A/M tangles with Utah State. Ever since the A/M Aggies emerged as a March player during the AC Law era, I’ve been a big fan of this club in tournament coin flip situations. This is close to that as they are just 3-point chalk. But, I also think hisotrically speaking those last 2-3 at-large teams invited into the field always seem to acquit themselves well in the first round after hearing all week about not truly being desrving of a bid. Admitedly, Florida kind of threw some ice water on this hypothesis yesterday. But, then again, they lost in double OT, so its not like they stuck up the joint. We have approximately six hours to decide whether or not to play this game. Regardless, I will be tuning in.
West Virginia, fresh off an historic Big East Tournament title, opens its Final Four run against 15-seed Morgan State, making its second straight appearance in this field out of the MEAC. Big East brethern Pitt opens with 14-seed Oakland. I am a big fan of Oakland. They have a legit NBA big man prospect in Keith Benson, a great point guard with Jonathon Jones and a couple of sharp shooters to provide supplemental scoring for a team ranked in the top quarter, or higher, in the nation in several offensive categories. . Dont forget, North Dakota State, coming out of the same Summit League, pushed Kansas deep into the second half last year. And, Pitt almost fell to a 15-seed. I dont think this game is a blowout at all. It’s not Pittsburgh’s style and Oakland has the firepower to score against the stingy Panther D.
A coin flip contests takes place as Clemson/Missouri match up in a 7/10 game. Missouri’s seniors have restored the tradition of March Madness in Columbia, but can they duplicate last year’s Elite Eight run? Can the Clemson Tigers finally break through and win their first ever NCAA game in the Oliver Purnell era? They still have a lot to prove when it comes to playing on the big stage. With the 28th and 80th ranked scoring offenses, we might get a track meet. Given the full court tempo both clubs love to employ, expect a fierce pace in this game. Missouri coach Mike Anderson has been dropping hints about extending his bench to the energy needed to play against Clemson. But dont automatically go to the window for an Over bet. Both teams are very hard to shoot the ball against, and the Unders have hit way more often int heir games this year than the Over.
And, of course, the Big 10 makes its debut this afternoon in three games with Minnesota playing Xavier, Wisconsin wrestling with Wofford and Purdue on major upset alert against Siena.
The Gophers get raucous home support at the Barn and can beat anybody there with that kind of adrenaline push combined with their sometimes potent hot shooting. Can they get any home court edge in Milwauke, a short drive away for most Gopher fans? Of the assorted game keys, the one I am honing in on is whether or not sharpshooter Blake Hofbauer can get his game going. He’s one of the more underrated shooters in the country. He can be deadly if given open looks. When he finds his scoring touch, the Gophers are tough to beat. They’re 13-2 when he drops at least double digits into the stat book. They will need his offense today. They cant win without it. They’re playing an old March hand this afternoon. Xavier is making their ninth tournament appearance in the last 10 years. And they’ve been excellent during the First Round during that stretch going 6-2 SU, 5-2-1 ATS this decade. To me, the storyline for Xavier to watch is Jordan Crawford. Can another Indiana transfer leave its mark on the tournament? Yesterday we saw former Hoosiers Ben Allen and Armon Bassett lead their teams to upset wins, especially Bassett who continued his March roll. It hasnt been an easy transition at Xavier for Crawford who endured a benching back in December. He’s the team’s leading scorer and he will more than liely be matched up with Gopher defensive dynamo Damiam Johnson. Can Crawford score efficiently agasint Johnson? Can Johnson, prone to careless foul trouble, stay on the court long enough to check Crawford. Will Tubby Smith change up defensive aasignments, perhaps putting the bigger Paul Carter on Crawford? Crawford is apt to taking a lot of bad shots, so expect Tubby, one of the best defensive coaches out there, to have a ktichen sink ready to throw at the kid to take him out of his comfort zone.
When Purdue and Siena play later in the afternoon, it wont be your standard 4/13 match-up. Siena is gunning for its third straight NCAA First Round win. They expect to win, despite one of their top three point threats Clarence Jackson hobbled by a rolled ankle. We blogged earlier in the week that you would be get tired of hearing people tabbing this their upset pick. This straw poll of pundits shows an 8-5 lean towards the Saints. Boilermakers are usually a pro-Saint crowd, but today Purdue will need to throw a nasty half court defensive effort on Siena to pull out the win. The tale of the tape remains in Purdue’s corner, but of course those numbers were built with Hummel. While they’re 3-2 in his absence, their is evidence this is no longer the vintage Purdue team we expected. It’s the Big Bad Defense from the Big 10, ranked 25th in scoring D and 43rd in FG percentage D going up against the Run N Gun Mid Major from the MAAC, ranked 44th in scoring and 58th in shooting percentage. It’s the fifth ranked efficiency D vs the 58th ranked efficiency O. Per his numbers, KenPom isnt buying an upset, saying the Boilers have a 74-percent chance of winning, calling for a 6-point Purdue win.
Defense will be on the menu when Wisconsin plays Wofford in their own 4/13 game. Unlike the Purdue game, nobody is calling for an upset. The Badgers are double digit chalk. KenPom gives them almost a 90-percent chance to win. And unlike the Purdue game, this wont be a clash of styles. Both teams begin and end with defense. The Baders are 7thh in efficiency defense and 4rth in the nation in points allowed. Wofford isnt too shabby, ranking 50th in efficiency D and 29th in points allowed. This will look like a typical Badger game that sets basketball back 10 years every time its played. Wofford has one big gun in Noah Dahlam, but I think he’s going to be knocked around by Bo Ryan’s defense. If the Terriers are to stay in the game and have a chance in the end, they need to do their fair share of knocking around on defense as well. I dont have much else to say about this one, so here is everything you needed to know about the Terriers.
Picks? Picks!
I wont lie: I have no idea what to do today. I am always attracted to the Big 10 teams, do I go that route? Do I dare take short favorites in the 5/12, 4/13 games despite what happened yesterday? Do I ride the Cinderella/Underdog trend that won the day yesterday? I feel like Vinny Barbarino right now.
One thing I can mention, and I’m sorry for not doing so yesterday, is announcing that I did make a 2-unit play on the Big 10 going Over 7.5 wins. I think we’ll get six wins this weekend out of MSU, Wisconsin and OSU and should either Purdue or Minnesota get first round wins, we’ll be sitting pretty on this one. This was a winner last year. Here’s hoping for a repeat. Since none of the Big 10 teams have played yet, you probably can find places with this total still being offered if you want to jump aboard the bandwagon. Do it. The beer is ice cold.
But as far as individual games, I am having some paralysis when it comes to the afternoon games today. But, we’re going to throw out there, for single units, and just play for fun.
Xavier -1 over Minnesota…….this is part hedge on the Big 10 bet. If the Gophers are going to do their share to torpedo it, I might as well get some cash for it. If the Gophers do win, it only makes the bigger play on the Big 10 that much stronger. But, part of this is merely, a bet on Xavier and their fantastic first round history as a program. When they make the field, they rarely go one-and-done. Minnesota has been to inconsistent this year to trust in this spot anyway.
Oakland +10 over Pitt……I think this stays within single digits. Oakland brings a lot of offense, experience and confidence to this game. I know they are from the little old Summit League, but they might have the best big man and point guard in this game. If not, the argument is much closer than you would think.
Missouri +2 over Clemson……it has been the tournament of breaking winless droughts. So, I am nervous that Karma will carry over to Clemson. For me, though, Missouri coach Mike Anderson’s history as a tournament coach–dont forget his runs with UAB–speaks volumes over Oliver Purnell’s. I’ll take his March strategies over Purnell.
Thats all for now. If I add any during the day, look out for word being spread via Twitter. I’ll be back just before dinner hour with a post on the night games. Enjoy the hoops today!!
I watched Cornell hang tough with Kansas. I have faith in my pick for them to win one here.
I watched Cornell hang tough with Kansas. I have faith in my pick for them to win one here.