FRIDAY NIGHT BUBBLE NEWS AND PICK$$$$$

 Three bubble teams lost yesterday, killing their chances with a one-and-done showing in their league sectionals. Two have gone today with Virginia Tech losing to last place Miami and Ole Miss falling to Tennessee. Despite the proverbial better loss, Ole Miss is in worse shape. I think they are out. The Hokies, meanwhile, become one of the bigger arguments the rest of the weekend. They finished in fourth place in the ACC. They have over 20 wins. But, they played a pathetic schedule, lack marquee wins compared to many of the other bubble teams and now have two losses to the cellar dweller in their conference. They really have opened the door for others to steal their bid. Like Rhode Island or Illinois. Have they done enough? There’s a chance they’re both in right now. No way they get left out if they add wins tomorrow in their conference semifinals.  And then there’s tonight’s action. There’s five games that will give the bubble one big final shake. It’s pointless to have any true arguments on the last few invites until those games are in the books. So, lets check back in with each other at midnight and figure it all out. In the meantime, here’s a peak at those bubble games, with, natch, picks at bottom of the page.

FLORIDA VS MISSISSIPPI ST

Does this amount to an SEC playoff game for one of the final spots in the field? A win over the Gators gives the Bulldogs an excellent shot at grabbing a bid, despite thier rather low placement and single vote in the current Bracket Matrix. Add in a win tomorrow and its a lock. They have no shot if they lose tonight. As for the Gators, they might not be safe after all. Somebody’s got to get left out of the field. If everyone else on the bubble continues to win–like the did this afternoon–and this ends up as a Gator loss, they’ll have to sweat it. Here’s how to guage if the Gators are in trouble. Since its the only head-to-head bubble game, let’s say if the Gators are the only bubble team to lose tonight, then it’s time to worry. Double it for each one of them that goes one to win tomorrow.

Dayton vs Xavier

Dayton needs this win to jump back into bubble discussion. A Flyer win wont clinch a bid, but it demands them a place right in the middle of the final debate. And, they would get another chance tomorrow to put another good result on the board. An A10 finalist Flyer squad would be hard to keep out especially if it comes with wins over Xavier and Richmond. Despite just three votes in the Bracket Matrix, the odds arent stacked against the Flyers in this field or for getting a tournament bid. Dayont blew out Xavier at home and lost a nailbiter to them on the road. No reason to think they’re overmatched. I think the Flyers are capable of tightening this bubble by getting hot the next couple of days. This a bigtime rivalry game. There is a ton at stake. It’s worth pointing out this is a moot point in a 96-team field. Dayton would be in that field win or lose. Instead, they have to win one, maybe two playoff games just to get to the real playoffs. Who needs drama like that?

MINNESOTA VS MICHIGAN ST

When these teams played last, the Gophers controlled the game for 39 minutes, often dominating the action. But the Spartans came back and won it on a Kailon Lucas jumper at the buzzer. Boy are the Gophers paying for that loss today. Reverse the outcome and Minnesota’s position on the bubble is so much stronger that I’m pretty sure this would be a play-in game. The bubble losses the last couple of days, including Virginia Tech’s loss earlier, might end up making this a play-in game as well. As it stands, I think the Gophers need to spring the upset here and then advance tomorrow. Like Dayton, I think Big 10 finalist Minnesota will be tough to keep out. The Gophers have a better chance than Dayton and getting in with just a win tonight, but it would be far from a lock. Losses by the west coast bubble teams later tonight will go a long way in determining what other kind of work any of the fringe bubble teams will have to do the rest of the way. So to that end……..

SAN DIEGO ST VS NEW MEXICO

This is a huge game. The Aztecs, without anyone really noticing has put themselves in tremendous position for an at large bid. SDSU is 23-8 overall, 11-3 in their last 14 games, and the only losses they’ve had since January 13th are to teams currently ranked in the top-15. Steve Fisher’s team is tough to score against, can harass you into terrible shooting nights, are monster rebounders, cant make or defense the three ball and are terrible free throw shooters. What else do you need to know? Tonight they get a chance to avenge one of those top end losses when they play 8th ranked New Mexico in the MWC semifinals. The Aztecs are a 12-seed in the Matrix with 68 of 80 votes. You have to think a win here locks up a bid. Even if it doesnt, it will still advance them to a championship game where they can formally squash the question altogether. Despite getting 68 of 80 votes, I dont think they’re a good bet to make it if they lose this one. They dont have anything of note on their out of conference resume, unless you count losses to St. Mary’s, Pacific and Arizona State. I dont think the selection committee will give much discussion to the fourth place MWC team that doesnt play beyond its seed in the section and has no marquee non league wins. It will open the door for bubble teams like Illinois, Rhode Island and the winners tonight to pass them, if they dont already by virtue of their own wins today. Meanwhile, there’s some compelling seeding drama for New Mexico as they, along with BYU, are bucking for excellent regional quality seeds in the Tournament. Losses in advance of the final could really move them down the seed line.

STANFORD VS WASHINGTON

Washington lost a bit last night with Arizona State lost. It was looking like a bubble playoff game. Now you have to wonder if Washington will get the requisite juice they need should they merely beat Stanford this evening. They’re in the Matrix now as a 12 seed with 51 votes. Can they hold on even if they win. I dont think so. Certainly the bubble teams that win today can pass the Huskies in the pecking order if they add wins on Saturday and UW doesnt. They’re cooked if they lose, but not in the clear if they win. Illinois is behind them now. But will they still be when factoring in today’s results? How about if Illinois adds a win over OSU tomorrow and UW goes down to Cal? To me, that’s certainly advantage Illinois. In both cases, frankly. But, they’re contenders. And maybe they can pass Virginia Tech by winning tonight. Or SDSU if the Aztecs lose. So, its not the matchup those of us who love the most bubble drama possible wanted tonight, but it still has bigtime implications. And anytime it involves a UW hoops team coming through in the clutch, who knows what will happen. That’s worth tuning in for right there.

In addition to all that, we have killer semifinal games in the Big East , Big 12, other big league quarterfinal games, not to mention semifinal action in about a half dozen one-bid leagues from Conference USA, MAC, Big West, WAC, MEAC and the SWAC.  There wont be a day left to go with this many games on the board tonight. So, yeah, onto the investment opportunities.

Northwestern +9 over Purdue, 1 Unit……always like this team catching points. They’re 18-9 ATS this season. They’ve matched up with Purdue very well the last two seasons. Still not sure about the Boilermaker Bandwagon in the wake of the Hummel injury. Can they handle being heavy chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. against a team thats given so many recent fits? I’m risking a unit that they anwser is No.

Texas A/M +9.5 over Kansas, 1 Unit……The last time the Aggies failed to cover the spread it was January 27th. They played the Jayhawks to the end in their only matchup of the season. And the Aggies are 8-3ATS  as underdogs this season and 22-11 during Mark Turgeon’s tenure in College Station. I dont care what the Jawhawks are ranked, I like all those numbers and want some Aggie action.

Florida +2 (+120) over Mississippi State, 1 Unit……in the three SEC East vs SEC West coin flip games during this draw, the East is now 2-1. We’ve been with the Easterners every step of the way. We’d be letting you down if we didnt see this through and jumped on the fourth ride. Go Gators. End the Bulldogs hope. Leave no doubt about your bid. Do it. Please dont make me regret backing you in a big spot. I beg you. Oh, and watch out for that Varnardo dude.

Marquette +4 (-115) over Georgetown, 1 Unit…..If you’re offering Marquette as an underdog, we’re buying. Wait, what, you are? Sold! Between A/m, Northwestern and Marquette, we have three teams who are a combined 33-11 when catching points this season. I like our chances at coming out ahead between those three teams.

Minnesota +4 over Michigan State, 1 Unit…..what can I say? It’s going to be a dog day at the Big 10 Tournament. And when Gus is on the call, always take the puppy.

New Mexico -1 (-120) over San Diego State, 1 Unit…..I dont buy MWC depth beyond the top two teams really. The off and on again reliable eye test tells me BYU and UNLV are really better than anyone else. Both take care of business tonight to set up a real fun final game.

BYU -1 over UNLV, 1 Unit…..Uh, Ditto.

Notre Dame +5 over West Virginia, 1 Unit……they’re playing too well to fade as an underdog right now. I dont think this game ends with more than a single possession difference either way. I mean, at this point would you be shocked at a Marquette/Notre Dame final? I wouldnt and I am taking the points in both games knowing that chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. has been getting woodshedded during the entire Big East sectional.

Baylor +2 over Kansas State, 1 Unit….two of my favorite teams to watch. I just feel Baylor is the better team. And they’ve been so good to the blog here in the last week that we’ll take them out for a single unit drive tonight.  They’re not shabby puppies themselves with a 5-2 mark catching points. The Bears are 16-8 ATS since Thanksgiving Day. I know KSU beat them by two points back in January in Waco, but Baylor is playing better now than they were then.

Wow. Thats a lot of picks. I’d be lying if I said I was tempted to add even more. I mean there’s 2 MAC and ACC games that i dont have action. BOO BE A DEGENERATE BETTER!!!!

(College Hoops Record: 93-74-4, +21 Units….including this afternoon’s 3-2, +0.8 Unit result. Stupid Hokies. Dumbed me for spending all that extra juice!!)

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