Bubble News: Four Playoff Games This Afternoon and Pick$

We had bloody bubble carnage yesterday with Memphis, UAB and Arizona State all losing quarterfinal games in their respective conference tournaments. Those teams represent the third-from-last in the field, second-from-last cut and fourth-from-last cut per the Bracket Matrix consensus. Memphis and UAB looked destined for a play-in game against each other in the CUSA semifinals tonight, but by falling short of the game, both are probably NIT bound. In a matter of hours yesterday, Conference USA went from a possible three-bid league to likely just one bid. Not surprisingly, a Mike Davis squad had something to do with this failure. With an at-large bid hanging in the balance, the Blazers had their worst loss during his tenure in Birmingham. Indiana fans are nodding their heads somewhere. The Sun Devils were steaming towards a similar type of play-in against Washington in the Pac 10 today, but by going one-and-done in the Pac 10 sectional, their bubble has been popped. Who can step in and take advantage of the bubble void left in the wake of these three losses? I say ditch work early today, because there are several games during the Friday afternooon session that will have so much bubble impact they’re basically playoff games for the teams involved.

The day starts with quarterfinal games in the Big 10, ACC, SEC and Atlantic 10. The first quartet of games all involve the tops seeds in those sectionals. Games like Temple/St. Bonaventure, Duke/Virginia, Kentucky/Alabama and Ohio State/Michigan dont have much impact on the bubble. The underdogs are facing elimination and all need to win the autmatic bid to stay alive for next weekend. The top-seeded chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. needs to fight the quirky motivational issues that crop up during league sectionals. And, perhaps, need to win to avoid the ‘no team who loses their first league tournament game has even gone on the win the national championship’ curse. Final Four contenders Syracuse and Villanova will be testing that theory out beginning next week. Will any of these top-seeds join them in their experiment to buck history?

Obviously, the game I will be keeping an eye of those four is the Michigan-Ohio State contest. Nothing like a bitter rivalry to hopefully add spice to the first set of games that otherwise look pretty ‘meh.’ The Wolverines beat OSU in early January, but Evan Turner was still out of the lineup with an injury. In the rematch in Columbus in late February, Michigan took a one-point halftime lead, but the Buckeyes ran them off the floor in the second half. I’m pretty confident the Wolverines can play for 30-35 minutes with the Buckeyes. I am worried about the 5-10 minute stretch where everything falls apart and Michigan goes on their patened scoring drought. Can they minimize that? They’re going to have to if they want to be in this during the closing minutes. It’s going to take an impressive effort to keep their season alive against the Buckeyes.

The heavy action takes place in the four games immediately after those top-seeds play. All four of the 4/5 games this afternoon in those quarterfinals have major bubble impacts. In fact the last great bubble push of the season may take from 2:00-5:00 this afternoon as those games play out. Like I said, skip work because we have some college basketball playoff games on the schedule. Here’s a quick look at them, with picks following.

Illinois vs Wisconsin

 Ok, Illinois. Take Two! This time really mean it. It’s your last chance. What’s worse? Wisconsin crushing you in front of your home crowd putting your tournament hopes in jeopardy? Or finding out that Cirque Du Soleil will keep you from hosting an NIT game? Luckily,the Illini can wash away the lingering bad taste from Sunday by taking the season rubber match with the Badgers in the 4/5 game of the Big 10 Tournament. It’s the second quarterfinal of the day on Friday. The Illini are the last team cut from the Matrix consensus, with 35 total votes. That’s 16 less than the final at-large team in the field right now–Ole Miss. The Illini’s support is pretty consistent. With 35 of 80 total mock votes, they’re just under 50 percent for the whole Matrix. But, 47 mocks have updated since Wednesday, and the Illini are in 22 of those brackets, again just under 50-percent. They can make a major jump with a second win of the season over the Badgers. The Illini have plenty of impressive wins and plenty of shaky losses. They need to pin one of the former up on the wall during this sectional to make the Field of 65.  This is as close to a play-in game as you can get. Lot of folks will be cheering for the Badgers out there in Bubble Land. It’s going to be a challenge for the Illini. The Badgers have Jon Leuer back in the lineup. I want to continue to send a message this weekend that they’re a legit contender now that they’re back at full strength.

Ole Miss vs Tennessee

Speaking of the last team in the Matrix field, ladies and gentlemen your Ole Miss Rebels. They are a Matrix 13-seed and have 51 mock votes, a shade below Washington and Memphis, although the latter is currently hemorraging support in the wake of yesterday’s defeat. Eleven mocks have updated to include yesterday’s results and none include the Memphis Tigers. But enough about them, let’s talk Ole Miss Rebels. So the Rebels are the last team in the field and the Illini the first team cut, per the Matrix at least. Interestingly, both are underdogs today and playing teams that are Sweet 16 contenders and darkhorse Final Four candidates. Translation? The bubble damage could continue this afternoon. Local bloggers might not buy the Rebels as darkhorse contenders for the SEC Sectional, but they are a win over the Vols from all but clinching a spot in the final Field of 65. The Vols, meanwhile,  are playing to improve their seed. Currently a Matrix 4-seed, the Vols could climb the charts with an inspired run through the SEC field. They engaged in heavy sleepwalking yesterday in dispatching of last-place LSU in the first round. They better be more awake today playing a desperate Rebel team in play-in mode. Should be a fantastic game.

Miami vs Va Tech

It’s ACC Quarterfinal Day, and there’s an NCAA bid on the line in today’s second game. Virginia Tech got a bit of a raw deal when 12th seed Miami upset humiliated Wake Forest yesterday. Conventional wisdown held that the Hokies, despite a really good ACC season, was still a win away from the field. Preferable a resume win. They would have had that with the Deacons as their foe today. Not so much with the Canes. Before I started believing the Hokies might need two wins this weekend on account of getting no credit for a possible win over the Canes, the bubble blow-ups happened yesterday. There’s more cushion now between the Hokies and the final cutline. Not enough to survive and one-and-done today, but enough where a win would clinch a bid. It’s been a roller coaster ride the last couple of years in Hokie land. Losing heartbreaker after heartbreakers in ACC play, coming up a win shy of the final field in each of the last two years. Now, they stand a win away against the last place team in the ACC from returning to the NCAAs for the first time since 2007.  Want an optimistic stat for the Hokies? Try the fact they’ve won 10 straight tournament openers.

St. Louis vs Rhode Island

Of the four bubble games going on during this time window, this is the only one where both teams are battling on the bubble. Both teams have benefitted from all the bubble blood spilled in recent days. We’ve had six teams either just in, or just out of the consensus Matrix lose their last time out, with only Wichita’s defeat in the MVC finals not being done under one-and-done circumstances. That opens the door for old contenders that have fallen, like URI, new contenders to charge up from nowhere, like St. Louis, and upstart conferences to add an extra bid to their coffers, like the Atlantic 10. I dont know if this is a pure play-in game. The Rams might get in with just one more win. They’re third-from-out of the Matrix with 13 votes of 80. That’s just 16-percent support. But, three of the 11 mocks that updated already today have them, bumping their support in the most recent exit poll up to 27-percent. We’re less than 60 hours away from the selection, this is the time to see your support increase, even if it looks meager like it does for the Rams. They lost their chance to position themselves for a bid when they they were upset over the weekend by UMass. They’ve been granted a mulligan. Only now they have to play the dangerous Bilikens in this quarterfinal game. Even though they arent getting a single mock vote right now, I think these guys are contenders for an at-large bid. Personally, I feel they have a better resume right now than URI or Dayton, league brethern currently among the final eight left of the field. One of the more accurate bracketologists in recent years already has elevated St. Louis to seventh-from-last out, so its not they’re getting no buzz at all. I believe, especially if we get a couple more bubble wounds today, that the Bilikens will be in the field if they win today and tomorrow against top seeded Temple in the semifinals. They’re 16-7 since December 5th and 12-4 ATS against the A10 this season. Today will be a battle of contrasts between the 32nd ranked scoring offense of URI and the 13th ranked scoring defense of St. Louis.

Picks? Picks!

It’s going to get crazy the next 48 hours. Try to keep up and not pass out. We’re playing with house money and there are tournaments all over the place to gamble on. Yesterday, we went 4-4, but thanks to going 2-0 on our double plays found a way to make some profit. Winning all three late night picks helped, too. Can Baylor play Texas again? Thanks, please.  I’ll do my afternoon picks in this post. Look for another Bubble News/Picks post for the night games up around 5:00. Good luck and enjoy the games.

Michigan +9 (-115) over Ohio State, 1 Unit……Screw the Buckeyes. Wolverines will go down fighting. The football team covered in their closer against OSU, why not the hoops team. Ok, I am stretching things a bit. But, I hate top seeded in the big boy league tournaments. I’ll take a stab with the hometown Wolverines in this one. Watch as the other three top seeds lose and the Bucks roll. I’d like to think the Wolverines can stay within single digits. And, I have enough house money where risking a unit on them doing so doesnt seem all that ludicrious. Besides, I need some noon action or I’ll get the shakes.

Illinois +8.5 over Wisconsin, 1 Unit…..I’ll always take the big underdog playing for an at-large bid over a favorite in these league tournaments. Really, though, who knows about this game. Illinois kills Wisco in Madison. The BAdger return the favor by thumping the Illini in Chambana. Here’s hoping we finally get a nip and tuck game in the rubber match on a nuetral floor.

Tennessee -2 over Ole Miss, 1 Unit……wait, arent I contradicting myself with this pick. Isnt Ole Miss playing for a bid? Yes, but the Vols arent a heavy favorite either. I think they have more talent and the better team. Both teams are in the top-20 percent in the nation in offensive categories. But only the Vols have comparable numbers on defense. It seems like in the last week, every time I’ve taken offense over defense, I’ve had my clock cleaned. Not today. The D of the Vols gets them enough stops to win  in what otherwise will be an offensive display.

St. Louis +3 over Rhode Island, 1 Unit…….I think the Billikens are the better team overall and come in playing better than the Rams. Again, I’m siding with the defensive team in this one. Rick Majerus will turn this game ugly, the Rams cant play the slow down style. They’ll get frustrated and the Bilikens will ease by by a 61-56 win to keep their surprising charge to a bid alive for another day.

Virginia Tech on the moneyline (-180) to beat Miami, 1.8 Units to win 1 Unit……ok, color me yellow for playing a steep moneyline. But, I have complete confidence the Hokies will win. I have no idea if they will do it by less or more than 4 points. Fact is, all their games are close and taking the chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. in Va Tech games is not wise. Close to 40-percent of the games Greenberg has coached at Tech have been decided by 5 or less points. You can see why either a 3-point or a 5-point Hokies win wouldnt be a shocking outcome. Again, I think they win. I dont care about margin. And, I wont lie. It’s a bit of a Homer pick. I’m a big fan of Hokie athletics and I am sure they will get this win today. Book It.

So, is playing five of the eight games crazy? Yes it is. I warned you to hang on. Just wait until tonight.

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