(Programming note: Friday Night Bubble News/Picks are posted……..Bubble News and Picks for the Friday afternoon games are posted!!)
Welcome to the Big 10 First Round, where only Iowa fans are probably happy. Well, happy might be too strong a word to describe how Hawk fans feel about their basketball program. How about deliriously sarcastic? I think that fits, but its probably a better mood than most fans of the the other five teams playing today are in. Maybe that’s because of the six teams relegated to playing in today’s opening round, I think Iowa is the one team that can be happy with their season in that expectations were actually exceeded. With a decimated roster and not much discernable talent, conventional wisdom back in the fall thought Iowa was going to crater to something akin to last year’s Indiana team that won just a lone league game. They could have gone winless in the Big 10, and I wouldnt have been shocked. Instead, the Hawkeyes won four games in conference play and avoided the cellar. Ah the sweet scent of overachievement.
The true reason we label Iowa for being the one overachiever playing today is because how poorly the other teams performed against the expectations–fair or not–their bases had going into the season. Michigan, Minnesota and even Northwestern fans expected tournament berths when the season began. Instead all three had painfully uneven seasons. The Gophers season included all sorts of off court headaches. But, at least they remain standing as a possible at large candidate. They’re actually still getting a single vote from the mock bracketologist crowd that’s part of the Bracket Matrix. But the Gophers are hardly a win away from the field. They can jump back into the discussion with two, but probably wont make without three wins in this sectional unless there is some serious bubble carnage across the country over the next four days. That’s the penalty for going 1-3 against Michigan and Indiana in the Winter of 2010. Despite personnel losses from the 2009 NIT Championship squad, Penn State fans have to be disappointed in their last place finish, 0-10 start in Big 10 play and squandering the singular talent of Talor Battle.
Then there’s Indiana. The folks in Hoosier Country always have outsized expectations for their cagers. Nobody was really thinking tournament berth, but I do think there was a strong sentiment, a borderline expectation perhaps, that the team could play .500 ball and make a case for some postseason action. This Hoosier alum had unique expectations. I have been crowing basically since the end of last season that Indiana would have a winning record at home in Big 10 play. I chirped louder about it after their win over Pitt in December. Wins over Michigan and Minnesota and an OT loss to Illinois in the first three conference starts at Assembly Hall turned my volume up even another notch. Then, it all went to pieces. The team just seemed to wear out. They were always good for 30-35 minutes of play where you thought they looked like the good old Hoosiers. But the 5-10 minutes they were off, they would be way off. It cost them games against teams George Mason, Boston, Loyola Maryland, Illinois and Purdue. But the end of February those splits between good and bad were pretty much at 20/20 of clock time.
The result was an 11-game losing streak that included a pair of loses to Iowa and nine defeats of at least 14 points. It wasa stretch every bit as ugly as last year. My bold prediction of a 5-4 home mark fell two games short, but it was apparent the whole back half of the conference season how off my prognostication was. It really ranked right up there with my pick in the 2009 Rose Bowl, Barbaro in the Preakness and Wake Forest to make last year’s Final Four. Indiana did close the season with an exciting overtime win over Northwestern in front of the home folks. I still think the seeds of the next good to great Indiana team have been planted. I think they can play .500 ball next year. And, yes, that does include five Big 10 wins at home. I love the direction this rebuilding prject is going, but I feel, like a lot of Hoosier fans, a comingling of sadness and helpless frustration as we watch the kids work so hard for so little pay off. If Indiana could find a way to break their three-game losing streak in the Big 10 Tournament, I might just rush the court out of sheer happiness for a postseason win of any variety.
So we have five fanbases beat up by teams who didnt perform to expectations and/or had ridiculously long losing streaks sapping the energy of its followers. And we have a sixth in Iowa who found a way to exceed expectations despite four Big 10 wins. Catch the excitement of the Big 10 First Round, People!!
It really is a letdown after last year. The Big 10 hit a high mark in recent years for NCAA bids last season. The first round of the Big Ten Tournament had a lot of stack on the table. Northwestern and Minnesota had in a play-in game against each other. Michigan had moved to within one win of breaking a long-standing Tournament drought. Penn State was two wins away, but first had get by the opening round. Today? Nothing much is on the line as bids are concerned, save for maybe the last breath for the Gophers. All are longshots to run this sectional for the auto bid, per the Experts in the Desert. The Gophers at 25/1 are the closest to the favorite odds among this six pack. If you want to burn money, take a stab at the 1,000 to 1 odds you can get on the Hawkeyes and Hoosiers. The numbers from KenPom reflect as dour as the oddsmakers. Five of these teams are given less than 1-percent chance of cutting the nets down on Sunday.(Side note: I concur with those numbers projecting Wisconsin. They might not win, but I cant shake the fact they make the finals as the 4-seed. They’re starting to peak now that they have Jon Leuer in the lineup.) But these are elimination games today, and thats always worth some drama. The three winners will get a chance to suit up again on Friday. And have the chance to keep playing until they lose, all the way into the NCAAs. If any of these underachievers have a winning streak in them, now is the time to break it out.
Michigan and Iowa play in the first game. They’re two of the lowest scoring and inaccurate shooting outfits in the nation. The Vegas total of 116 reflects how little offense the betting public expects in this game. Is it worth mentioning that the Under has hit 18 out of the last 24 Michigan games and 34 times in their last 51 Big 10 game, including five of the last seven in the Iowa series? The difference today will be DeShaun Sims. The Hawks cant matchup with him. I think we have enough proof. Things like averaging 24.5 points per game on 31 for 59 shooting over the last three games. Even when he was less of a focal point earlier in his career, Sims has always shot the ball against the Hawks. While the teams exchange bricks from the outside, eventually Peedi’s production will prove the difference. While the Wolverins have owned the season series, its worth nothing that perhaps the Hawks have solved Michigan’s defense. In taking the Wolverines to OT last month in Iowa City, they found their own offensive presence inside with Aaron Fuller and forced Michigan into one of their worst defensive performances of the season. The Wolverines are 7.5 games better than Iowa over the last two years in Big 10 play. They’ve won three in a row over Iowa and six of the last seven. Despite that, I just cant lay chalk with the Wolverines. I thought they would go 5-2 in February, and they went 2-5. I lost my mojo weeks ago on predicting Michigan games. Among the fanbase, I suspect there’s more buzz over the schollie offer to Jon Horford, Al’s younger brother, and the Trey Ziegler sweepstakes than there is for this tournament. Nor can I take points with the Hawkeyes. I mean, they’re not good and covered only 11 times in 31 starts. I’m a purist today. Go Blue. Win. And I could care less about the margin. Just advance, Babby.
Dont expect me to mine for an investment chance in the Minnesota-Penn State game that closes the first round today. The Nitts might have been the last place team in the league, but did you know they’re one of just four teams in the conference with a winning ATS mark? They’re looking to play March spoiler after seeing spoilers ruin their bid chances a year ago. My gut tells me the Lions might need another three-point basket head start, however, to cover any number. When the Gophers are on, they can flat run you off the court. Had they been able to tuck away what looked like wins for 39 minutes against Michigan State and Purdue, they wouldnt need a multi-game run in this sectional just to get back into the at-large discussion. The Gophers still have a shot at the Big Dance, but will it only take two wins to tango? Personally, I feel two gets them a seat at the discussion, but it could still go either way. Three wins would lock it down. I cant shake their szichophrenic nature. Who are the real Gophers? Are they the ones who dominated Wisconsin at the Barn and squeaked out of Chambana with a win over the Illini. Or are they the team that went 1-3 against Michigan and Indiana. I prefer this club with a chip on its shoulder and catching points. Not as chalk.
By this time, I hope most of you have stopped reading. Because this is where I admit my pick today in the Big 10 Tournament is Indiana catching 8.5 points against Northwestern. It’s the 7/10 and middle game played in today’s tripleheader. I dont fear that recent 11-game winning streak. Or the string of double digit woodsheds that defined February. Nope. Not in the slightest. Dont forget, they’re on a one-game winning streak and this is the team they beat. After six weeks of shattered confidence, the Hoosiers suddenly enter a game with as much as swagger as they’ve had all season. Crean shuffled his lineup for Sunday’s game. The Hoosiers looked as smooth and energized as they have all season. I dont know if Northwestern, a below average defensive team, will be able to really stop them during this second go-around them unless they trap full court game. But they can only do that for strategic stretches because they’re not very deep and will wear out. IU beat the Cats by eight points four days ago. I dont think the nuetral court rematch is worth 16-swing points on the final scoreboards. Besides, Northwestern is playing like a squad of bad rec league teammates. I going to guess those teams are terrible as chalk. Northwestern has been a money make this year, however. In fact, this picks puts us against the best ATS in the league this season with Northwestern’s 17-9 overall, 11-6 conference ATS mark. But, they were basically like everyone elese, a 50/50 proposition, when favored as their own 3-3 mark proves. There’s nothing special to their money making this year when they’ve been league chalk. So, there, I’m not scared. I’ll include this in a post later today with the entire card, but I am booking IU +8.5 over Northwestern.
Enjoy today’s Big 10 action. At leat three fanbases might find some solace, despite disappointing seasons, by advancing to Friday. And, keep checking back with us here at the JCB. We’ll have a couple more posts today, including one breaking down the bubble games of the day and, of course, a full picks post covering today’s action. Cheers.
