Bubble News: Is South Florida Playing For A Bid Today?

Posted on March 10th, 2010 by jamiemac 2 Comments

I’m going to change things up a bit here at the JCB with the Bubble News posts. We’re running out of bubble games, but the next three days have enough of them that instead of doing one big splashy post about them all, I’m just going to a series of smaller posts taking a look at the individual games. At least that’s the plan for today and tomorrow. Friday promises to be a heavy day of action, so I might go back to the old routine by then. But, I dont have time to complete a full Bubble News post today and with one of the biggest games left on the bubble board tipping off at noon, I present you with the first ever one-game Bubble News post since I started doing this. I’ve put a couple picks at the end in hopes of smoothing over any disappointment out there among my dozens of readers.

SOUTH FLORIDA vs GEORGETOWN, NOON, ESPN. Lines, GTown -7, O/U 133.5

Is this a play-in game for USF? BaselineStats admits as much in his Big East Tournament preview, even though they sit sixth-from-last cut in his latest bracket projection. I dont know if one more win gives them enough juice to make that leap. Of course, the Bulls dont necessarily have to make that kind of perception leap across the board. They’re in 17 mock brackets right now. They’re basically on the cutline when play begins today. Several mocks already have as many as 10 Big East teams in the field, so there’s plenty of room on the correct side of the bubble for the Bulls if they can collect another resume win.

It’s March and, yes, we’re really talking about USF Bull Basketball. A win over the Hoyas, combined with some losses from the teams perceived ahead of them, might be enough to slip into the final field. They’re listed as third-from-last out in the consensus Bracket Matrix. At worst, a win over Georgetown will put USF in the middle of the team photo of squads being debated for the final 2-3 at-large bids. With 11 total Big East wins, they’d make a strong case. Their effort over Depaul might not have been aesethically pleasing–the Bulls didnt make a single trey–but it was enough to induce haiku poetry from the loyalists. They need to harass Greg Monroe and have Dominque Jones go off like the last time these teams played, an eight-point road win by the Bulls. Don’t forget, this was the game Jones grandstanded a bit at the end. We’ll see if the Hoyas have any revenge cooked up.

I find the USF story rather remarkable. They have only won 13 total Big East games since they joined the league, never more than four in a single season. This year, they already have a total of 10. They’d never won back to back games in Big East until this season. And, they had never won a Big East Tournament game before winning over Depaul yesterday. This is truly a college basketball interloper trying to crash the dance. They’re coached by Stan Heath, who you may recall led Kent State to consecutive tournaments in 2001 and 02, advancing at least a round each year. His 2002 squad made it all the way to the Regional Finals before bowing out to Indiana. He quickly took the Arkansas job, had limited success and was forced to change jobs.

In getting the Bulls this close to a tournament bid, USF has molded their team, at least how its composed on the floor, in the image of their Sunshine State rival Florida State. This looks almost exactly like the Noles of recent years, the ones that revolved around scorer Toney Douglas and a rotation of bigs. Even without Douglas, FSU still pretty much runs the same script and they’re still winning.

USF’s team in constructed similarily. The offense revolves around Jones, the team’s one big-time scorer who averages over a 20 points a game. The rest of the lineup is filled with bigs who crash the glass, play defense and make teams miserable with their size. A pair of 6/11 forwards are in the starting five, August Gilchrist and Jarrid Famous. They’re the second and third leading scorers on the team. Both make a high percentage of shots. Gilchrist was out of the lineup with an injury for most of the year. He was quiet versus Depaul with just two point yesterday, but in the previous three games had scored 16 points and grabbed 5 boards a game. Famous is in his first year with the program after playing in the junior college ranks for a couple of seasons.

The Pick: USF +7, 1 Unit………..In Dominique Jones I Trust. Besides, I think the matchups favor the Bulls if the one gme they played this is any indication. USF dominated the second half and won going away. Hoya bigman Greg Monroe had a nice night scoring, but by the end of the game had been harassed so much that he became tentative with his moves, turnover prone and eventually fouled out. The Hoyas had over 10 turnovers between their front court players, while USF ony had eight total TOs as a team. And, that was with only one of the Bulls bigs in action. Gilchrist was still on the injury shelf back then. I dont know if Georgetown can handle the twin towers and win this game by more than that number. Besides, the Hoyas are just 11-25 ATS in their last 36 Big East games. And, the Bulls 19-9 ATS mark, 12-6-2 in Big East play, made them the most profitable Big East team of the season. I’m riding that bandwagon today.

Marquette -3 over St. Johns, 1 Unit……I guess a small word on the second game today in the Big East Second Round between Marquette and St. John’s is in order. Man, was I impressed with St. John’s yesterday. They were the only underdog to advance during the first round of the Big East sectional. They were not only the better team than Uconn yesterday, but I think they win that game 7 of 10 times. It was no fluke. They’re going to be dangerous as long as they’re alive. In seven of their losses this year, they had a second half lead. If they hold on to half of those, we’re looking at a solid bubble team that’s probably in better position than league mates USF and Seton Hall. But, they didn’t. And, they’re automatic bid or bust, although getting as far as Saturday’s title game might put them in the final discussion. That said, I think Marquette is too much for them. Unlike the Huskies, they havent quit. And, they’re playing some damn strong ball. I think they win a close one, with laste free throws pushing this past the cover number.

I’ll be back later in the day with some words on whats going on tonight, including another major bubble game and two more mid-major championship games. Hey, we’re 6-4 ATS picking those title games, so you know we’re going to have a take on at least one of the side.

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