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Bubble News: Big East Tournament, Who Can Play Themselves Into Bracket?

Posted on March 9th, 2010 by jamiemac 12 Comments

An amazing season in the Big East concludes this week at Madison Square Garden with the league sectional. The action begins today as seeds 9 through 16 knock heads for the right to play second round games against the 5 through 8 seeds. Amazingly, no less than 12 teams remain in contention for at large bids. Louisville and Notre Dame took some of the at-large dramatics out of this sectoinal by picking up huge wins over the weekend that seemingly wrapped up bids.  The Cards have risen all the way to the 8-line in the Bracket Matrix, while the Irish, a tournament after thought in late February, is a 10-seed, garning 73 of 77 mock votes. Louisville is a lock. The Irish are close. I think they’re in the Field of 65, but if they go one-and-done in this sectional, it’s going to be an anxious long weekend awaiting the Selection Committee’s verdict. Other Big East teams in the Matrix as of this morning include Syracuse, a unanimous #1 seed within the mock community, West Virginia and Villanova as #2 seeds, Pittsburgh a #3, Georgetown a #5; and Marquette a #9 seed. This is the last chance for these teams to improve their ultimate seeding and draw for the real tournament beginning next week.

Other bid prospects in the Big East, and throughout the country for that matter, saw the bubble squeeze even tighter last night with St. Mary’s trucking Gonzaga to earn an automatic bid into the field and guaranteeing the West Coast Conference a second bid. So, there’s one less bid on the table. That’s not good news for the four Big East teams today still in contention for an at large bid. The bar they need to clear this week to impress the final jurists has been raised. None of the teams looking to make it 9 or 10 bids for the Big East are one win away from the field, but with a tighter bubble none of them might even be two wins away from the field. One thing we do know: Their respective chases for Indianapolis will come to an anonymous end if they cant get out of the first round today in the Big East Tournament. A quick look at today’s four games.

SOUTH FLORIDA VS DEPAUL, NOON, ESPN. LINES, USF-7, O/U 126

The South Florida Bulls are the 9th seed in this sectional and they open play in the tourney lid lifter this afternoon against 16th seed and last place DePaul. Ths Bulls might be in the best shape among the Big East teams that currently sit on the wrong side of the bubble. They’re third-from-out of the Matrix’s consensus field with a total of 17 mock votes. That’s a good number to build up from and still sneak into the field. Just when you thought this team was dead and out after a loss to St. John’s, they pulled eveyone back in with an impressive final week including a big a win over UConn over the weekend. The Bulls are now shooting for something higher, namely a breakthrough bid into the NCAA Tournament. Conventional wisdom says the Bulles need to make quick work of woeful Depaul this afternoon to set up a play-in game for themselves tomorrow in the same time slot against Georgetown. The Bulls had never won more than four Big East games in a season, but won nine league games this year. If they can land a couple more, they could be dancing. If you havent caught any Bulls games this season, make a point to do so during this sectional. Dominque Jones and his 21 points per game is one of the more exciting players in the country. If he sticks around for a senior season we could be entering an era of bigtime college hoops in Tampa.

UCONN VS ST. JOHN’S, 2:00, ESPN. LINES, UCONN -4, O/U 133.5

The rollercoaster that has been the UConn Huskie season faces an elimination game against St. John’s in the second game of the day. The Huskies were set up for a bid, but they dropped contests to Louisville and USF in the season’s final eight days dropping them far down the pecking order. They’ve also been dropped from most mock bracketologists field. They receive just five mock votes, good for seventh-from-last out, but all five of those votes are still being pulled from mocks whose updates since the weekend arent reflected in the Bracket Matrix as of this morning. It was dismal close to the season after a mid-February surge brought the Huskies back into contention. Jim Calhoun benched some players as the closer against USF played out. They Huskies enter the Big East Tournament on thier third three-game losing streak of the season. At 17-14, how in the world do they have any at-large hopes, especially since their foe today St. John’s has no chance and a similar 16-14 record? The Huskies remain with a pulse on account of an ambitious schedule that included the likes of Duke, Kentucky, Texas in out of conference play and a challenging Big East slate that included wins over Notre Dame, West Virginia and at Villanova. Not many bubble teams have a top-5 win list as good as UConn. The only thing that resonates as a bad loss include being swept by Cincinnati and losing in Ann Arbor to Michigan.  The record is so lethargic looking, however, that Madison Square Garden is the Last Call Saloon for the Huskies. How many wins do the Huskies need in this sectional to swipe a bid? At least two. Today and then tomorrow against Marquette. That puts them back in discussion. A match with Villanova would be next in the quarterfinals. A win there would give UConn 20 wins. The Huskies need somewhere between 2 wins and a finals appearance to net an at large bid. Their best bet might be to wash away the current three-game slide they’re on with a three-game winning streak.

SETON HALL VS PROVIDENCE, 7:00, ESPN 2. LINES, HALL -5.5, O/U 166.5

If you like offense, then the third game of the day between Seton Hall and Providence is your ticket. It’s the Hall’s 1th ranked scoring offense vs Providence’s 345th ranked scoring defense. It’s the Friars 6th ranked scoring offense vs the Pirates 306th ranked scoring defense. This is a rematch of Saturday’s regular season closer, a 12-point Pirate win that featured 172 total points. The Vegas total on the board is 166.5. Interesting. Aparently Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez is a divisive figure. The Pirates rank just above UConn on the wrong side of the bubble. They’re sixth-from-out, but unlike the Huskies they’re at least catching some recent support. They have nine mocks putting them in their field, all after weekend updates. The Pirates are in range, but how many wins will it take? They match with Notre Dame tomorrow night should they win.  Should they beat the Irish, their second win of the Big East sectional will give them 20 wins. But, it would also be their first resume win in over a month, when they best the Irish in early February. They non-league slate was weak. Their best win there was against Cornell back before Thanksgiving. Seton Hall is a team that gets hurt the most by St. Mary’s reeling in that bid last night. They might need a third win in this field against the second seed West Virginia Thursday night to guarantee a spot in the final Field of 65.

CINCINNATI VS RUTGERS, 9:00 ESPN 2. LINES, CINCY -7.5, O/U 132

In the nightcap, Cincinnati square off against Rutgers. Cincy has wheezed down the stretch, but is their recovery just a matter of relaxing and playing loose? Most probably think the Bearcats are out of at large consideration. I say not so fat my friends. Granted, the Bearcats hurdle to clear might be the highest of all the potential late qualifiers, but I still feel there’s a road map to an at large bid for Cincy. They probabaly would need to get to the Championship Game. They’re just 16-14, but have wins over Vanerbilt, Maryland and Winthrop along with OT losses to Gonzaga and Xavier as part of their out of conference resume. In the Big East, they’ve swept UConn and have wins over Pitt, Notre Dame and USF. Let’s advance them to tomorrow. Say they follow that up with wins over Louisville in Round 2, Pitt in the quarters and West Virginia in the semifinals, suddenly this is a 20-win team with a very impressive and long list of resume wins. They might still need to the automatic bid, but if they advance that far, we’ll be arguing about the Bearcats all Saturday afternoon as part of the lead-up to that game.

Picks?Picks!

Last night, we took it on the chin. The good news was winning the lone double pick on the board. The bad news was losing all three single plays, including losing Siena and Appalachian State each by just a half point. The results drop the record to 82-64-4 (+19.7 Units). Here’s what I have on the card today:

UConn -4 over St. John’s, 1 Unit……laying some dangerous chalk here given how lame the Huskies have played lately. But, the Johnnies only have three covers in the last two months. And after seemingly playing a Big East heavyweight or good bubble team every time out, the Huskies might find playing St. John’s a little easier bar to clear. It’s a close game, but the Huskies defense eventually thwarts the Johnnies and they pull away for a 7-point win.

Oakland -1 over IUPUI, 1 Unit…..Summit League Championship game. For sentimental reasons, I am pulling for Oakland. They were the best team in the league all season. They want to make amends for letting the title slip away late in this game one year ago. I’ll take them to win a coin flip in this one without hesitating.

North Texas -1 over Troy, 1 Unit…..Sun Belt Championship. Both teams like to light it up. Neither have great defenses. The total going Over 139.5 is worth a look, but sometimes nerves take over in these games and the expected scoring doesnt arrive until its too late to tilt the over. So, I am backing the Mean Green to win this one. They have not lost a game since the end of January. They’re 16-6 ATS this season and 12-3-1 ATS against the Sun Belt. They won on Troy’s home floor back in January. I think they will repeat the trick tonight on a nuetral floor and qualify for the Big Dance.

If I have anymore today, I’ll either do a new post or fire up the Twitter. Cheers!

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