The first week of the NCAA Tournament closes tonight. We still have over 200 teams standing in the chase for Indianapolis. Tonight, it’s some light fare as only eight elimination games on on tap. Semifinals in the Summit and Sun Belt conferences will set up finals later in the week. The big news of the day is a quartet of championship games as crowns will be passed out in the Colonial, MAAC, Southern and West Coast conferences. This Monday has grown to be one of my favorites of the entire March rush as I love following all four leagues and enjoy seeing them get a national TV spotlight in the same night. Here’s a quick rundown of the four games. Naturally, picks follow at the end. We caught fire sometime around the dinner hour on Saturday. Here’s hoping a day at the real job hasnt extinguished the flames.
COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOICATION
WILLIAM MARY VS OLD DOMINION, 7:00, ESPN. Lines, ODU -9, O/U 117.5
Have you been enjoying the Colonial Athletic Association League Tournament? Boo on you if you havent. It promised tight, dramatic action, and its more than delivered. After the most competitive regular season in years, its carried over in the postseason sectional. The last four games in the tournament have been decided by a total of 14 points with three overtime periods being played between them. Left standing is Old Dominion, the regular season champ, and William and Mary, the sectional’s third seed.
When they decide who gets the conference’s automatic bid into the Field of 65 tonight, it will be a battle of old guard vs plucky upstart. This is Old Dominion’s sixth appearance the CAA Championship game in the last 18 years. They’ve won this field three times during that time. They expect to be contenders every time this weekend rolls around. For William and Mary, it’s relatively new territory. This was their first 20-win campaign in a dozen years, only their second in the last 25 years and sixth in school history. They have been perennial bottom dwellers in the CAA standings, but this year put together a solid third place finish. Oh sure, they made the championship game two short years ago. But, that was as a .500 team and the league’s sixth seed. Otherwise, the Tribe have been whipping boys in this field having gome one-and-done in the CAA Tournament in 10 of the last 13 years. Now, they sit 40 minutes away from the school’s first ever NCAA Tournament bid. A game away from March Vahalla, tonight is for everyone in the green, gold and white William and Mary family.
When they arrived in this spot two years, the Tribe were on a Cinderella run and had stolen three straight games via buzzer beater just to advance as far as they did. They’re not interloppers this time around. The Tribe have been factors in the league race since Day One of the season. En route to just their third 20-win season since the start of the 1950s, the Tribe collected the second most CAA wins during a season in program history, won a school record 10 road games, enjoyed a record 10-game winning streak at one time and became the first CAA school in league history to win a pair of road games against ACC teams, when they won at Wake Forest and at Maryland back in Demember. They also beat Richmond, a team from the A10 that will receive an at-large bid into the tournament. Not bad for a team picked by the media to finish in 10th place.
They spent much of their quarterfinal game losing to James Madison before a late rally put them ahead and sealed a 4-point win. Against Northeastern in the semis, they opened a big halftime lead, but scored just 15 points in the second half. Leading scorer David Schneider, held without a point the whole game, finally drilled a trey with less than a minute to go to give the Tribe the lead for good. It was business as usual for the Tribe who are now 10-4 this season in games decided by 4 points or less.
Coach Tony Shaver’s team runs the Princeton-based offense. They will spread the floor, shoot a lot of treys and get inside points thanks to precise and disguised cuts and screens that open lanes to the goal. His offense has been heavily influeced by John Beilein and Herb Sendek. And the Tribe like to bomb away like a Beilein outfit, often going for long stretches of games without taking a 2-point shot. They shoot the ball just OK, within the top-35 percentile in all the country at shooting behind the arc. But, the Tribe get you with volume. No team in the history of the CAA has made as many treys as the Tribe did this season. When they’re hot, they’re unbeatable like in yesterday’s first half when they opened up a 16-point lead. When they’re cold, they’re very beatable, evidenced by the 15-point second half last night that almost eliminated them after their hot start. They defend well, ranking in the top-25 percent nationally in points allowed and field goal percentage, screen effectivley and run precise back cuts.
One missing ingredient is athleticsm and playmaking inside. It’s hurt them at times this year. They struggled against VCU and Larry Saunders and other CAA teams like UNC Wilmington and Townson enginnered upsets of the Tribe because they couldnt handle their bigs. That’s going to be a problem tonight against Old Dominion. Four of the Monarchs top six scorers are forwards that run from 6/6 to 6/10. That includes leading scorer 6/10 forward Gerald Lee and second leading scorer 6/6 Frank Hasell. Both shoot better than 55 -percent from the field. ODU swept the Tribe this year, with the forward trio of Lee, Hassell and Kent Bazemore combining for more than 35 points per game. They crushed the Tribe on the offensive glass, particularily in the teams second match of the year a month ago when they hauled in 19 offensive boards.
The Monarchs are all about defense. They’re sixth in the nation in points allowed. The matchup to watch tonight is how ODU”s sticky perimeter defense, 21st in the country at defending the three-point shot, squares with the Tribe’s bombs away mentality. They dont score that many points, but they’re deliberate on offense, shoot the ball and crash the glass. Be it on the defensive or offensive end, the Monarchs are one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Like the Tribe, they played an ambitious non-league slate and picked up impressive wins over Georgetown and Charlotte.
After barely breaking a sweat in routing Towson in the quarterfinals, Old Dominion was down and out against VCU. Down a dozen midway through the second half, the defense stepped up and helped spearhead a 20-8 run to force overtime before winning the extra session. An unfamiliar weapon–the trey-pushed the Monarchs through. Three different Monarchs drilled treys in the closing minutes to help the comeback effort. Until then, they hadnt made a three pointer all night.
METRO ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION CONFERENCE
FAIRFIELD VS SIENA, 7:00 ESPN2. Lines, Siena -7.5, O/U 138
At times it doesnt even look like Siena is even trying in this sectional. They’ve been heavy chalk in each of their first two games, but slogged through the first half each time. Despite a 17-1 record in MAAC play this season, the Saints have trailed going into the intermission in the quarters and semis of this sectional. Eventually they woke in both second halves and outscored Manhatten by 21 and Rider by 12 in the final 20 minutes en route to easy wins in the end. Can they afford that kind of script tonight against the #2 seed and 22-win outfit that the Farifield Stags will bring tonight? We’ll see, but I dont recommend a third straight halftime deficit tonight. The Stags are much better than the first two teams they played. They have a 40-minute game in them, where the Jaspars and Broncos didnt.
The Saints arent as explosive as the last two seasons, but they still score 75 points per game, are 54th in the country at shooting the ball and are in the top-10 percent of all teams when it comes to offensive reboudning. They’re 60th in the KenPom ratings, a heady number for a team coming from mid-majordom. The Saints have made it to the Round of 32 in consecutive seasons. The suspects on their team are familiar ones. Guards Edwin Ubiles and Ronald Moore and book end forwards Alex Franklin and Ryan Rossiter have been part of the core that’s turned March into their month. They’re back for their third and final taste from the cup. Franklin leads the team in scoring and has averaged 20.5 points, 9.5 board so far this sectional. Rossiter has averaged 16 points, 12.5 boards over his last 10 games. Moore is the point guard who is playing his best at the end of the season. He’s dished out 9.5 assists a game over the last four starts.
The Saints are two-time defending MAAC sectional champ. They’ve won eight straight games in this event. They’re 54-8 vs MAAC foes. Needless to say, Fairfield has to play its A-plus game to score the upset. The Stags have lost five in a row and seven of their eight against Siena. Opportunity knocks tonight for the Stags, but will they answer the door.
The Stags are beefy and deep up front. Four of their five scorers are frontcourt players anywhere between 6/7 and 6/11. Anothony Johnson and Yorel Hawkins get the most run of that crowd. The starting forwards combine for over 30 points per game and shoot better than 53 percent from the field. Between these guys and Rossiter and Franklin for Siena we have a great matchup of frontcourts. The Stags tandem has to totally outplay their Saint counterparts to earn the win. Freshman Derek Needham leads the team in scoring and assists. His presences has lifted Fairfield from league also-rans to second place this year. Still, how will the freshman overcome a deeper, more experienced and talented group of Siena guards? I dont know if he can on this stage. But, he picked up his scoring down the stretch, averaging just under 20 points per game since the end of January. He’ll need to have an explosive game for the Stags to overcome all the offense the Saints can throw at them.
One difference to keep an eye on is free throws. Siena does not foul. Teams never get to the line against them. In two games during the MAAC finals, the Saints have attempted 30 more freebies than their opponents. No way Fairfield wins if they cant find a way to even up the production on the charity stripe.
SOUTHERN CONFERENCE
APPALACHIAN STATE VS WOOFORD, 9:00 ESPN2. Lines, Wofford -4.5, O/U 134.5
In the Southern Confernece Final, we have another team trying to make their first ever NCAA bid. And like their counterpart in the Colonial it comes after years of being a league punching bag. Wofford has never played in the Field of 65. Nor, had they ever advanced past the Southern Semis before. Until this weekend, that is. After one-and-dones in five of the last six Southern Conference Tournaments, Wofford stands a win away from an historic NCAA bid. They’re surfing on a 12-game winning streak, if they make it lucky 13 tonight, they will be dancing.
Despite their ‘meh’ history, Wofford is no Cinderella. At least not this year. With a 15-3 record, they were the top-seed in the field after winning the conference regular season title. They’ve had a pair of easy games, including last night’s dismantling in the semifinals of a Western Carolina team that had beaten Louisville and won 22 games.
The Terriers make their bones on defense. They’re 34th in nation in scoring D, 31rst at defending the three-point shot and 73rd at defensive rebounding. On offense, they lean heavily on 6/6 junior forward Noah Dahlman. He averages 17 points per game and over his three seasons at Wofford is nearly a career 60-percent shooter. Simply put, he’s one of the most effecient players in the nation. Per KenPom’s rankings, Dalhman is the 32nd rated player in the country on offense. He does just about everything on the offensive end of the floor about as well as any other forward in the country. Otherwise, Wofford is a middle of the pack team on offense. Dalhman is their only double figure scorer, but their trio of guards Jamar Diggs, Junior Salters and Cameron Rundles are all good three point shooters. When the D collapses too much on Dalhman, they’ve been able to swish open shots all year en route to the first place finish. Can they continue to hit them with an NCAA bid on the line?
Their foe tonight is Appalachian State. The Mountaineers won the North Division of this conference, so we have the top two seeds in this field going at it this evening. Appy State is a powerful offensive team, ranking 51st in the nation in scoring, 14th in overall and three-point shooting and 23rd in offensive rebounding. All of it was on display last night when they routed a very good Charleston team in the semifinals. This game was not close after the first 10 minutes of the game. While Wofford is a one-man gang on offense, the Mountaineers offer a little bit of everything. When it comes to tempo free stats, Appy State has individual leaders everywhere. Guard Donald Simms drops in 20 per game and is one of the best rated overall offensive players in the country and he almost cracks the top-50 in effective field goal rate. Teamate and 6/10 big man Isaac Butts does crack the top-25 in that categoy and, along with John Hunter, is also in the top-20 of offensive rebounding percentage. Between Simms, Kellen Brand and Jeremi Booth, the ‘Neers top three-point shooters are more dangerous than Wofford’s trio of marksmen.
This will be a classic case of Appy State’s offense going head-to-head with Woffrd’s defense. It’s the 51st scoring offense of Appy State versus the 34th scoring defense of the Terriers. Both units are what got them to this point, 40 minutes away from the Field of 65. We’ll see which can exert its might over the other this evening.
WEST COAST CONFERNECE
ST. MARY’S VS GONZAGA, 9:00, ESPN. Lines, Gonzaga -3.5, O/U 134.5
The question of the night is, is St. Mary’s in the NCAA field? They look to remove all doubt this evening in the conference title game against Gonzaga. They were in this exact spot a year ago, got trucked by the Zags in the WCC Finals and were snubbed by the Selection Committee. Do you believe in Deja-vu? It doesnt matter if you do or not, but the Gaels may be experiencing it if they lose to the Zags once again, even if the game is closer than a year ago.
As of this morning, the Gaels are seeded on the 12-line of the Bracket Matrix. They’re in 70 of the 77 mock bracketologists fields. Teams have been falling all around them all weekend, so even though they didnt play until Sunday night their position has been improved. Three of the five at large bids just ahead of them lost this weekend as did two of their fellow 12-seed at-large candidates in the Matrix. As the Matrix becomes more fully updated as the day gets long, I expect St. Mary’s position to become even more secure.
But I dont think any of that is relevant. I dont think they make it if they lose another one to the Zags. They’ve dropped six in a row to the boys from Spokane, by an average of 12 points per game. In the end, that’s how the Gaels are measured, straight up against the Zags. In 2008, they received an NCAA at-large bid for the WCC, but had a win over the Zags on their resume. Last year, they went 0-3 against the Bulldogs are were snubbed despite a guady looking record. They’re back this year with another sterling record, but they’re 0-2 against Gonzaga. You can figure out the stakes for yourself. Most of the at-large candidates holding down a bracket spot right now are all allegedly one win away from a bid and one lose away from being tossed into the NIT. The Gaels are in the same boat, except with a win tonight it guarantees them the WCC auto bid. The Zags, a Matrix 6th seed, are in regardless. Fans of bubble teams everywhere are not only rocking their Gonzaga pom-poms tonight, but they’re kind of pulling for a woodshed to further diminish the Gaels hopes.
The Gaels smoked San Diego State, lost by 2 at home to Vandy, won at Utah State and lost to USC as far as their top non league results go. It certainly doesnt relfect poorly on the Gaels, but it doesnt scream obvious tournament resume either. A win over the Zags on the nuetral floor would be both their biggest win of the season and one of the most impressive wins a bubble team will get during this last week of play.
As always, the Gaels packed their offense. They score a shade under 80 points per game. They’re the fourth best 3-point shooting team in the country. Mickey McConnell, Michael Dellavadova and Wayne Hunter all score in double figures and shoot better than 40-percent from behind the arc. Despite their aim from deep, the offense revolves around 6/11 pivot man Omar Samhan. He leads five scorers in double figures with a 21.3 mark. He pulls in just over 11 boards a game and has double-doubles in nine of his last 10 outings. Because of his presence, the Gaels are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation.
We all know the team in the other corner. Despite a roster makeover, the Zags have not skipped a beat. They too bring an explosive offense to the game, scoring 78.1 points per game and ranking fifth nationally in overall shooting at just under 50-percent. Four players score in double figures, led by the backcourt of Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray. Elias Harris is a forward with all sorts of skills that provides matchup problems for every team on account of his versatility. They have a 7-footer in the middle with Robert Sucre who drops in 10 points a game, who will be matching up with Samham all night.
Bottom line: This will be a high scoring, fast paced, exciting game with a lot on the line for the Gaels and the rest of the NCAA Tournament Bubble. Make sure you stay up to watch it. And, prep your arguments for or against St. Mary’s accordingly.
PICKS? PICKS!
Well, of course I have picks. What, you think I would make you read close to 3,000 words without some cookies at the end? Anyway, the ship is steaming ahead. After a slow start to March, we rolled this weekend. After a 8-3-1 Sunday, the college basketball record is 81-61-4 on the season, good for a profit of 20.8 Units. There’s tons of basektball ahead. We’re playing with House Money. What could go wrong?
WIlliam Mary +9 over ODU, 2 Units……..College basketball is all about matchups, at least that’s what all the drones on ESPN Radio keep telling me. Well, bullocks to that. I dont care if the Tribe dont matchup well up front with the Monarchs.. To me, this game is all about mathematics. The Tribe will hit their fair share of treys. They might even have a hot streak each half. ODU does not have much of a three-point attack. I dont think the Tribe exchange enoughs 3′s for 2′s to pull out the win, but they certainly will do the trick enough to keep this game close and in the single digits. The whole weekend in Richmond has involved games going down to the wire. I expect the two teams who bagged the biggest scalps of the season in this league to do the same tonight. The Tribe were the best ATS team in the league this year. They are 13-3 ATS when catching points this year. And they’ve covered twice as many times on the road than not. ODU went 6-11 ATS this year against teams with a winning record this year. I’ll roll with the Tribe once again.
Siena -7.5 over Fairfield, 1 Unit….I hate laying chalk, but its Siena or nothing in this one. They’ve been waiting for the finals to dish out ther A-game. The Stags get served tonight. Saints win by double digits and head to the NCAAs where they’ll try to win their third straight first round game. If not for my aversion to chalk, I might double on this one. The Saints are just so much better than everyone else in their league right now. Dueling trends going on in this one. Fairfield’s 8 straight covers against league foes vs Siena’s bounc back profitability mark of 35-16 ATS after an ATS. I’ll go with the later and lay the chalk. Siena rarely falls to the number in back to back games. Book It.
Appy State +4.5 over Wofford, 1 Unit…….Appy State is 17-8 ATS this season, 7-2 when catching points. That includes a 1-point win on the road at Wofford back in December as a 7-point underdog. They’re on a major money making run, booking covers in 10 of their last 11 games, not to mention six of seven head-to-head over Wofford. They beat the Terriers in their building, so I’ll take the head start tonight on the nuetral floor. Meanwhile Wofford is just 4-8-1 ATS as chalk. I really liked what I saw out of Appy State last night. I think they’ll be too explosive, too versatile and too much to handle for Wofford.
Gonzaga -3.5 over St. Mary’s, 1 Unit…..I have this little rule: Dont bet against the Zags in league play. They’re 37-25-2 ATS vs the WCC in the last four years. Usually they’re solid double digit favorites. Today, they’re short chalk and I have to take them at such a cheap price in the league they’ve dominated. The Gaels proving to be terrible underdogs over the years with a 7-15 ATS mark when catching points only adds to my interest.
A double play, like yesterday, on William Mary. The rest single plays. If I crap out, I lose 85 percent of the bank made yesterday. I say throw caution to the wind, it’s March.
[...] Booking Bids In Colonial, MAAC, Southern And West Coast [...]
[...] Booking Bids In Colonial, MAAC, Southern And West Coast [...]
[...] Booking Bids In Colonial, MAAC, Southern And West Coast [...]
[...] Booking Bids In Colonial, MAAC, Southern And West Coast [...]