$unday Tournament Action With A Heavy Heap Of Pick$

Posted on March 7th, 2010 by jamiemac No Comments

The NCAA Tournament eliminated 34 teams yesterday as the body count finally surpassed triple digits. We’ve whittled away more than a third of the field. Another 25 teams will get the heave ho during the course of today, but we’ll still have over 200 teams standings when the first week of March ends. Hard to believe we’ll be down to 65 one week from now and 16 teams weeks from now. The action wont be slowing down any time soon, so get comfortable. Make a sandwich. Open up a brewdogger or two. The big news from yesterday was three teams clinching spots into the Field of 65 with wins in conference title games. Winthrop, East Tennessee State and Murray State got it done yesterday. Learn all about them now. Do it. Go. You never know, you might want to take one of them as double digits dogs against Vanderbilt or something in 10 days. You’ll want to be prepared.

Winthrop impressed me the most. Any time a team reminds me of the 1989 Seton Hall Pirates in the postseason, it’s a good thing. The Pirates demolished teams on defense en route to the NCAA Championship Game. Every game they played, invariably the other team would literally not score for an eternity. The Hall would use that stretch to blow the game wide open, like they did against Indiana in the regionals, or to push by you at the end, the way they did in the Final Four against Duke. Winthrop stole that playbook and won the Big South. In their last two games in the sectional, their defense took over the postseason the way the Hall’s did 21 years ago. In the semifinals, Radford was stuck in the 30s the whole second half while Winthrop routed them the final 20 minutes. In the title game, the Eagles defense pulled the trick twice. They forced Coastal Carolina into eight straight missed shots in the first half, allowing themselves to steady the game and climb out of an early 6-point hole. In the second half, it took forever for the Chants just to put up 10 points. By the time they did, Winthrop was too far ahead and the top seed and 9-point chalk went down. Winthrop is likely headed to a 16-seed, so they’re going to be hard pressed to duplicate that feat against the Kansases and Sryacuses of the world. But, maybe we investors will catch a break, and the Eagles get shipped to the play-in game, With that defense, I think they would win that game going away.

East Tennessee State won one of the best games of the day by taking the Atlantic Sun over Mercer. The Bucs now look for the first Field of 65 win since topping Arizona in 1992 as a 14-seed. The Fab Five Freshmen took care of them in the next round. When February ended, the Bucs were the fifth-place finisher in the A-Sun. By the end of the first week of March, they had advanced in the Final 65. March Madness at its best. As for Murray State, I’m just glad my gut still proves to be a useful handicapping tool. I thought the game with Morehead was a toss-up and originally was inclined to take the four points. But, my gut told me the Racers would have too much offense in the end. And, they did, turning it up a notch the final 6-7 minutes en route to an easier-than-it-really-looked win.

Anyway, on to today’s action with PICK$, as we have semifinals, quarterfinals and opening round play in 10 different leagues. But, we start with the one and only sectional championship of the day.

Can it be as easy as just taking Northern Iowa and the Under? The Panthers are 19-11 ATS. The Under in their games is 23-7. In 30 games this season, the Panthers and the Under both came in a total of 14 times. Whoa. So had you been putting a unit on Northern, a unit on the Under and then a half unit parlaying the two of them, you’d be up 32.8 Units. I consider it a JCB failure that we werent able to really steer ourselves and anyone else to this bandwagon this season. We will deliver next year. Its hit both games for the Panthers in this tournament. Not sure about the uber-low 114 total this afternoon, but I do like the Panthers to take this game. You just dont score 60 or more points against this team and the Shockers are 1-5 this year when held below 60, 5-33 when held below that mark the last four seasons. Wichita did win for me yesterday, and they’ve discovered their nasty side this weekend. But, I dont think they have enough of it to out nasty the Panthers and their defense thats allowed less than 55 points 23 times this year. Make it 24. Panthers win 61-53. Or thereabouts. I’m making the Panthers a double play.

In the Colonial, we have two must see semifinal games. I watched every minute of the quarters yesterday, and it lived up to my entertainment expectations thats for sure. Some great performances. We’ll see which teams have recharged on the fly. My picks? With all due respect to VCU, who I hate to bet against and killed me yesterday, but I think it’s Old Dominion’s year. They’re the only team that didnt have to break a sweat yesterday. Those fresh legs will count for something today. I like them at -2. But, I really love William Mary catching 5.5 points in the second game. Let’s see Northeastern hasnt covered a spread in over a month. Meanwhile, the Tribe, at 15-10 ATS, were the best Colonial team against the number this season. Interesting. Also the Huskies played into double OT last night. We have the fresher legs again in this one. I just dont like the way Northeastern has played the last month. William Mary has been better and their three point attack gets them the straight up win tonight. But, I’ll take the 5.5 points and put them in my back pocket just in case. All four of these teams can win a first round game in the Field of 65. These will be fun games.

In the MAAC, I dont really like laying heavy chalk in these type of tournaments, so I’ve crossed off laying the 12.5 with Siena against Rider. It took the Saints about 30 minutes yesterday before they woke and shook off the underdog to cover as chalk. I expect the same thing to happen today and it’s a coin flip in the end whether or not this game ends up above or below the dozen-point line. I’m waiting until the finals to hit me some Siena Saint action. But, I will put a One Unit on Niagara to upend Fairfield at -1 in the second game. The Purple Raiders are the sixth seed, but they’re favored. Someobody knows something. I want to be with that somebody. They’ve been one of the best teams this decade in this sectional. They know how to win and it sets up a battle tomorrow night between Siena and the only MAAC team to have beaten them this year.

In the Southern Conference we have West Carolina playing Wofford followed by Appalachian State playing College of Charleston. We had a great late night rally last night on the backs of moneyline parlays, one of which took place within this sectional. We’re willing to try again. Lets go Wofford and Charleston to win. Odds are better than any of the three we won on last night. It pays one George Washington better than 2/1.

Elswhere, I like Boston -2 over Stony Brook in the American East, Robert Morris -2 over Mount St Mary’s in the Northeast Confernece and St. Mary’s to win on the -150 moneyline over Portland in the West Coast Conference, all for one unit apiece.

In summary, here is my card for these games:

NIU -2, 2 Units, 2:00, CBS….bought line down from three to two. This is 2.6 Units to win 2 units. Gulp

ODU -2, 1 Unit, 3:00, ESPN Full Court

William/Mary +5.5, 2 UnitS, 5:30, ESPN Full Court

Niagara -1, 1 Unit, 6:30, ESPN Full Court

Monelyline parlay, Wofford/Charleston One Unit to win 2 Units, 6:00 and 8:30, ESPN Full Court (both games)

Boston -2 over Stony Brook, 1 Unit, 5:00, ESPN 360

Robert Morris -2 over Mt. St. Mary’s, 1 Unit, 7:00, ESPN 360

St. Mary’s to win over Portand, 1.5 Units to win 1 Unit, ESPN 2, 11:30

These picks go along with the picks from my other post today: Florida +12, already a winner, Lafayette -3 over Holy Cross going on now with Lafayette up 9 at the half, Illinois +3 over Wisconsin, 2:00, CBS and Wake -1 over Clemson, 6:00, FSN. The Florida and Lafayette picks were for cheap thrills and a half unit each. Illinois and Wake are serious business. Full Units.

(Season Record in college hoops: 73-58-3, +14.5 Units)

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