Bubble News: Who Wins After Saturday's Carnage? (With Pick$)

Posted on March 7th, 2010 by jamiemac No Comments

We’ve reached the final day of the college basketball regular season. It comes a day after one of the biggest blood lettings on the bubble all season. Oh sure, Louisville closed the house in style by routing Syracuse in the second half securing a bid. How do you think Kyle Kuric’s night around on town was yesterday? And Notre Dame made the upcoming Big East Tournament even more anticlimatic by putting a checkmate on their invite with a road win at Marquette.And, they got Luke Harangody back as their dance card looks to be filled. Otherwise, it was a day of fail for the teams on the fringes, just in and just out of the fielsd per the mock bracketologist crowd. Of the final 10 at-large bids in the Bracket Matrix, seven played yesterday. Four lost. Of the Final Four Out group, with had another three losses.

Hard to believe that for the second year in a row, the Rhode Island Rams quest for a bid was dealt a curshing blow by dropping a heartbreaker to a bad UMass team in the season finale. But, it’s a bad deja-vu all over again for Jimmy Barron’s club. It’s been a nice blast from the past to see a Mike Davis club fatler down the stretch and drop another late season game with a bid on the line. Losing a double digit half time lead because you cant score coming out of the lockerroom? Man, that takes me back. Sweet memories. All I need now is a text from Kelvin sometime today and the reunion will be complete.Mississippi State had a 0-2 every bit as bad as UAB’s capped off yesterday by a non-competitive home loss to Tennessee. Dayton got smoked at home by St. Louis. And then there’s the curios case of the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets. They outclassed on their home floor by Virginia Tech, leaving them 7-9 in ACC play. I’m telling you, they will not make the Field of 65 if they dont get another win. The are down to their final chance. That makes their 7/10 vs UNC Thursday night one if the biggest games of conference tournaments this week.

Who benefits the most from yesterday’s results? How about the group in the Second Four Out in the Matrix. Those teams went 4-0 as Memhpis, Wichita State, Arizona State and Washington all won. Suddenly, the Pac 10 is sitting pretty for perhaps still three bids after a season-long talk of just one bid. One CUSA replaces another in the quest for that league to get its first ever at-large bid since the Big East defections. And a fourth bid from the MWC going to SDSU and an eighth bid for the Big East going to USF all seem much stronger possibiliites now than they did 24 hours ago.

The other winners were the teams among the final 10 at-larges in the Matrix that play games today. Can they really drop all that far with so many other teams losing. Suddenly, there’s a lot of cushion beneath them. Conceivably, they’ll just be running in place, even if the lose, not really an undesirable outcome when you’re considered in the field with just a week before Selection Sunday.

I didnt think Florida was going to fall to far any way should they lose at Rupp Arena to UK this afternoon. I mean its one of the hardest wins out there. The Gators could win by just pushing the Cats into the final minutes. The pitchfork crowd has had enough of the same old crap they saw against Vanderbilt in the home finale earlier in the week. The Gators fell into an early hole and after spending the whole game climbing out of it didnt have any energy left as they basically went scoreless over the game’s final minutes. But, the angst is overblown. I dont think the Gators are in jeopardy of missing the NCAAs for a third straight year. As mentioned above, there’s plenty of cusion for Florida to absord a loss today and still remain in decent shape as far as the pecking order for the bids goes. They need one more win, and they’re staring at a matchup with Alabama or Auburn in the SEC First Round on Thursday. Had the bubble’s record been the reverse of its 4-7 record yesterday, teams would be surging by the Gators. Instead they’re falling around them. They’re going to be hard to keep out of the field as long as they get one more win. But good luck winning on Senior Day at Rupp.

Illinois position also improved yesterday in advance of their showdown with Wisconsin this afternoon. Illinois is seeded on the 11-line right now with 54 of 75 total mocks voting them in. They lost earlier in the week, but there’s been enough carnage around them on the bubbl where a loss in Columbus hasnt damaged their current position.With 43 of 58 mocks that have updated since that defeat still having them in the field, their support has not really waned and most of those straw polls were taken before the bubble implosion yesterday. Bracketology 101 has them as an 11-seed, Baseline Stats has them as the last team in the field, and Joey Brackets has them on the 10-line. None of that takes into account yesterday, so the Illini have three keen bracketologists making the case for them right now. Would it change with a loss to Wisconsin today? Perhaps. They certainly have more pressure to win on them today than Florida. The Gators are on the road against arguably the best team in the country. The Illini are playing at home against a team that will finish in fourth place in the Big 10. But, again, it’s repetitive, but there’s cushion for the fall. If they fall out of the Matrix due to a loss to the Badgers, they will barely fall out of it. And, they can conceivably make up for whatever lost ground occurs today by beating the Badgers in the rematch in the 4/5 quarterfinal game on Friday in the Big 10 Tournament. Their fans might not feel like dancing, but it’s going to take an 0-2 close against Bo Ryan’s club to keep them out of the field.

Frankly, I think the its silly putting Illinois out of your mock field. They beat Clemson and Vanderbilt as part of a rugged out of conference slate, the beat Michigan State, won AT Wisconsin and, win or lose today, will finish with a winning Big 10 record mark. Are you going to ding them for that loss down at Georgia? Well, Florida and Georgia Tech also lost to UGA, as did a few other times currently locked in the field, and the Illini have had better league seasons than the Gators and Jackets. I just think the Illini meet every criteria out there: they played a tough slate, showed they can beat tournament teams, showed they can beat them on the road, showed they can beat people in their league. They only criteria working against them is the skid they’re on now with losses in four of five outings. If they can stop the bleeding today, by getting a regular season sweep of the Badgers, you can book their spot in the field.

Other games from the big boy leagues to keep an eye include Wake Forest hosting Clemson. The Deacons are a unanimous Matrix selection with a 9-seed. But, they’re two losses away from ending the season on a six game losing streak. That would not be good.

St. Mary’s wont benefit from the same cushion Florida and Illinois may have receivede yesterday. They’re in the field for now, but if they lose their WCC semifinal tonight against Portland, they will probably be out for good. I’ll go more in depth on this game and all the other conference tournament action going on today in another post.

And, in East Lansing, in-state rivals Michigan and Michigan State hook up. A year ago, Michigan needed a killer win in the Barn against Minnesota to put them in position for a bid. When this year’s schedule came out, I remember dreading what would happen if the Wolverines were in a similar situation headed into the closer at the Breslin. Luckily, I guess, we dont have to worry about that. Michigan needs a major road upset just to resuscitate NIT hopes. I’ll do a proper obit on the team sometime in the upcoming weeks in a MGo Diary. For now, know that the February slide, where they finished two games worse that month than I projected, has beaten me into the ground so much that I’m not even interested in betting on Johnny Beilein;s club in his money month of March. I was interested in their chances earlier in the week against Minnesota. Despite that win, I am less than interested in their chances against the double digit number this afternoon. Maybe I’ll try them out the 8/9 game against Iowa in the BTT First Round on Thursday if the price is cheap enough. As for State, should they lose this game, they wont get a share of the Big 10 Title and probably wont get a top-4 seed in the NCAAs either. Is Raymar Morgan’s college career reaching an end? Hard to believe.

Picks? Picks!

Somehow we came out ahead yesterday. Might as well play some more today. I will have another post that will include picks on the conference tournament action. But, for the regular season games going on today, here goes:

Florida +12 over Florida +12, Half Unit…..I’m bored and want action. Only putting a half unit on it.

Illinois +3 over Wisconsin, 1 Unit

Wake -1 over Clemson, 1 Unit

Obviously, we’re banking on home court advantage and expect both of those clubs to remove doubt of their NCAA worthiness with wins on their home court to end the season.

And, Lafayette -3 over Holy Cross in the Patriot Semifinals, for a Half Unit. The game starts at 1:00 and I wont have my post on the other conference tournament action going on today ready by then. So, I’m throwin it up here.

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