We have arrived at the first Saturday in March. The regular season is winding down in the bigger leagues and the most of the mid-majors are knee deep in the conference tournaments. Teams are running out of time to spruce up their resume and impress the selection committee. We’re in the year of a soft bubble when upwards of a half dozen A10. four MWC and three CUSA teams are all under at-large consideration. How soft is the bubble this season? So much so that Minnesota is actually receiving some votes despite being 1-3 against Michigan and Indiana. There are no obvious candidates on the wrong side of the bubble that we can expect to crash into the field. But, I dont think any of the final 10 at-large bids in the current Bracket Matrix are locks. None can afford to not win another game and more than half of them will be underdogs in their final regular season game this weekend. Translation: Expect another major bubble shuffle over the next day two days. Here’s a sketch of Saturday’s action that will have the most impact on the bubble
Cincinnatti at Georgetown, noon ESPN 360. Lines, GTown -7
I am not even sure why I list this as a bubble game. With a 16-13 record, the Bearcats really aren’t going anywhere. They’ve lost consecutive games and six of their last nine. For the third year in a row, a feisty Cincy squad is being chewed up and spit out into the NIT field by the rugged the Big East schedule. Per the Matrix, one lone bracketologist tabs the Bearcats. But, really, no mocks have them in the field. The matrix doesnt reflect yet that mock’s latest update which has thumbed Cncy all the way to the fifth-from-out of the field. The Bearcats have a strong enough set of wins and schedule strength where if today begins a four game winning streak that lands them eventually in the Big East semifinals, then they might be under consideration. That would give them wins at Georgetown and at MSG over St. John’s, Louisville and Pittsburgh in the BET, using today’s standings as a possible bracket. That would be a damn strong final push. Win a semifinal game and they probably would be a lock for the field.
Texas A/M at Oklahoma, noon ESPN. Lines, A/M -3.5
The Aggies are playing for seeding. They are, IMHE, a lock for the field. Even an 0-2 close to season wont damage them. Important Big 12 seeding is on the line as well. The Aggies could be as high as a 3-seed or as low as a 6-seed in next week’s Big 12 Tournament based on how the games go this weekend. Nationally, the Aggies are holding a spot on the 6th-seed line in the Matrix.
Florida State at Miami, noon ESPN 2. Lines, FSU -2
The Seminoles are in good shape heading into their finale. They’re in every mock field and locked and ready to go on the 8-seed line. But, 22 of the mocks do have them as a double digit seed. Could a loss today to the last place team in the ACC wither their support? If they lose and then drop their ACC Tournament opener, is the bubble strong enough to squeeze them out? Nole fans dont want to find out. With a win, FSU could be as high as the third seed in the ACC Sectional next weekend.
Tulsa at Memphis, 1:00. Lines, Memphis -7.5
Memphis put a charge back into its at large hopes with a big road win at UAB earlier in the week. The mock crowd still isnt enamored with them, however. When the week began, just 2 mocks placed them in the field. Now, they have nine votes, which was enough to move the Tigers up to fifth-from-out. Eight of the 41 mock updates since their win over UAB do have them in, that’s close to 20 percent and a whole lot better than the less than three percent they were pulling on Monday. They have to keep building. For at large consideration, I feel the Tigers need to win this game and advance all the way to the CUSA finals.
Notre Dame at Marquette, 2:00 ESPN Full Court. Lines, Marquette -7.5
Both teams have been fighting the bubble all February, but as the regular season closes, both are sitting as pretty as they’ve ever been this season. Both had big wins earlier in the week with Marquette throttling Louisville and Notre Dame running away from UConn in the second half. Something has got to give in this one. Marquette is seeded 9th in the Matrix and is a unanimous selection. The Irish still have some convincing to do, even as they appear in the Matrix this week for the first time all season. They are seeded 12th with 50 of 74 mocks putting them in the field. A deeper look reveals how secure the Irish have become in the wake of their win over the Huskies this week. Only three of the 41 brackets updated since that win exclude them. In the overall Matrix, the Irish have the support of about two-thirds mocks. In the latest exit poll of most recent voters, their support is over 90-percent. They still need one more win to become a lock, be it in Milwaukee today or at MSG next week in the Big East Tournament.
Syracuse at Louisville, 2:00 ESPN. Lines, Louisville -1
Is Louisville safe? On the surface, yes. Despite being run off the floor by Marquette earlier in the week, the Cards remain a unanimous Matrix selection with a spot as a 10-seed. In what is becoming a familiar refrain for a lot of teams, I dont think they can afford not to add another win. If they beat the Orange at home, it will be a sweep of Syracuse and lock them in the field. Should they lose and follow it up with a one-and-done in the Big East Tournament, then its going to be an anxious weekend in Derby Land. That first Big East Tournament game will be against somebody from the Cincinnati, UConn, Seton Hall trio. Also: Today is the last game at Freedom Hall.
UConn at USF, 2:00 ESPN Full Court. Lines, USF -1
One of the more fascinating games of the day. College hoops royalty versus a total interloper. It’s the Matrix 12-seed UConn at 10th-from-out USF. The Bulls could really make a move with a home win over the Huskies. They’re in just two mock bracketologists fields as of today. But, a win today combined with one or two wins next week at the Garden might be enough to push them into the field at the last minute. As for UConn, they need to stop the bleeding with a win over upstart USF. While their 12-seed placement and 47 mock votes look like they have a groundswell of support, they dont. It’s been crumbling down since the loss to the Irish on Wednesday. Only sixteen of 41 mocks who have re-seeded since that game find the Huskies worthy of a bid. Their support has fallen from more than of the mock crowd to likely less than half or worse. They need a big road win to get that support back and then cement it with at least a win next week at the Garden. UCHuskies and VooDoo5 have your game set-up in two parts.
Richmond at Charlotte, 2:00. Ruchmond -2
Richmond was a lock for the field before their second half comeback win against Dayton Thursday night. As for Charlotte, not so much. In fact, the 49ers are way back on the rail. They’ve lost 5 of their last 6 games, including getting run off the floor in the second half at Rhode Island the other night. The result? Not a single vote of support from the mocks that have updated since then. The 49ers need to upset the Spiders and then probably win a couple games in the A10 Tournament next week in Atlantic City to make up for the damage they’ve done on this late season slide.
Mississippi at Arkansas, 4:00 ESPN Full Court. Lines, MSU -1.5
The Rebels are on a three game winning streak, but all the wins came against SEC West teams with a losing records. But, they’re collecting wins and taking advantage of a soft bubble to get in range of an at large. They’re currently fourth-from-out in the Matrix with 12 of 74 votes. But, hey, nine of them have come from mocks updating to include the weekday games. Their overall support is just over 16 percent, but its in the 30-percent range in the latest exit straw poll. It’s not much, but at least they’re trending in the right direction. They better tuck away this winnable road game. Then, they still need at least a win or two in the SEC Tournament.
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 4:00 ESPN Full Court. Lines, GT -4.5
One of the bigger bubble games of the day. It’s the 10th seeded Georgia Tech Yellowjackets hosting the 11th seed Virginia Tech Hokies. Will the loser even be in the Matrix when they reconvene for the ACC Sectional next weekend? I dont think so. Georgia Tech remains a unanimous selection, but they’ve lost five of their last eight games. Add another loss and they finish 7-9 in ACC play. It’s been a steady descent from tournament darkhorse to wrong side of the bubble. If they lose at home and then drop their ACC Sectional opener, the fall will be complete. As for the Hokies, they’re seeing support from 60 out of 74 mocks. But, 36 of the 41 who have updated since their win over NC State earlier in the week have them in the field. A road win in Atlanta might lock it up. A loss means they will need one, if not two, wins next weekend.
Rhode Island at Umass, 4:00. Lines, URI -7.5
Rhode Island steadied their sinking ship with a dominant second half en route to a win over Charlotte earlier in the week. Did it work? Yes. Thanks to surging support since that outcome, the Rams have gone from out of the field to a consensus 12 seed. Among the 41 most recent mocks, 34 have put the Rams in the field. Its not all good news. Their 48 total mock votes are the second fewest among current Matrix at large invites. A year ago, the Rams were in range of a bid, but suffered a terrible loss to woeful UMass. Conveniently, look who rolls up on the schedule today. The Rams need to put this in the win column, and then not flame out early in the A10 Sectional. If they can do that, they will be the fourth A10 team in the 2010 NCAA Tournament.
UCLA at Arizona State, 4:00 CBS. Lines, ASU -9.5
Arizona State looks to complete a home sweep of the LA schools and set themselves up for a bid with as strong Pac 10 Tournament run. We’ve talked all winter about the league being a one-bid league. A loss by the Devils to the Bruins may beone of the final nails in that coffin. Even if they win, the Devils still have work to do next week in the league finals. They would have to at least play to their seed and get to the finals. They’re seventh-from-last out and have only 6 mock votes. But, hey, the good news is five of them have come in the latest round of updates. They’re on somebody’s radar and with as many as four games to play, they need to win at least three of them for any chance of an at-large.
Tennessee at Mississippi St, 6:00 ESPN. Lines, MSU -3.5
You know what’s not good for your NCAA hopes? Losing to an SEC West team with a losing record, that’s what. Yet, that is exactly what the Bulldogs did the other night in losing to Auburn. This could have been a de facto clinching a bid game, instead they need the win over the Vols just to save face and put them in position for an at large run with an impressive SEC Tournament run. The loss to Auburn kicked the Bulldogs out of the field. They’re second-to-last out with 27 total votes. Only eight of 41 put them after their latest updates. They ought to get some support back with a win over the Vols, but they are going to be smack dab on the cutline heading into Atlanta next weekend. They cant afford a loss in this one, or be a one-and-done in the SEC finals.
St. Louis at Dayton, 7:00. Lines, DU -11.5
Last call for Dayton. They’ve lost four of six and let a golden win at Richmond slip away in the closing moments Thursday night. Their late season funk has pushed them into a corner. They’re third-from-last out, and only 3 of 31 mocks voting since Thursday night tabbe the Flyers as bid worthy. They need to ease by a tough St. Louis squad and then put a couple of wins together in the A10 finals to really have a chance at an at large bid. A home loss to the Billikens would all but eliminate them from at large contention.
Seton Hall at Providence, 7:00 ESPN 360. Lines, Hall -1.5
We’re still putting Seton Hall on the board as a possible at large. All that means is that, as of today, they have more options than just pulling off a miracle and winning the Big East Tournament. They are hanging on the bubble by a thread. They need to win this one and still need a major run at Madison Square Garden. Three wins in that field will get them into the semifinals. They might even need to win that one. But, if they can get to the Big East Final Four as pasrt of a five-game winning streak, at least they would be making a much stronger case than they are now. The Big East is fascinating. I feel like 12 teams still have at large hopes, even if they’re somewhat fleeting in the case of teams like Cincinnati and Seton Hall.
Washington at Oregon State, 8:00. Lines, UW -3
Uh, here come the Huskies? They’re still a threat to pull a second bid from the Pac 10. They’re second-from-last out of the field, so they’re in close range. They’re only getting votes from 7 mocks, but all of those have come from the 41 mocks who have updated since Thursday. A win over the Beavers gives the Huskies a four-game winning streak. If they up that to six and qualify for the Pac 10 title game, they might steal an at-large bid.
San Diego State at Air Force, 9:00. Lines, SDSU -13.5
This game wont help the Aztecs. It will kill them if they lose, but they’ll just be running in place with a win. But that’s not a bad thing for Steve Fisher’s team. They’re the last team out of the Matrix field so just maintaining their position gives them a chance to play their way into the field with a solid showing in the MWC Finals. What kind of showing will they need? A semifinal win over the BYU or New Mexico should do the trick.
UAB at UTEP, 9:00. Lines UTEP -6
Do not color me surprised that a Mike Davis coached team fell on its face in a critical game. The Blazers home loss to Memphis earlier in the week was a dagger to their tournament hopes. Getting over the loss wont be easy. They still look good on the surface of the Matrix. They’re an 11-seed with 52 out of 74 votes. But, they have just 20 votes, a smidge less than half, from the crew that’s updated to include the midweek games. Their support has fallen from 83-percent to 49-percent. Tune in to see how much further it falls if they cant get a road win against the regular season champion on their league. With a win, the Blazers could be making the strongest statement of anybody over the weekend. Even with a win, they cant afford not to play to their seed in the CUSA Tournament. If they lose, its automatic bid or bust. As for the Miners, they’ve climbed as high as a 9-seed in the Matrix. At the heart of their resurgence this season has been the relocation of Derek Caracter to El Paso, where the former Louisville player is making the most of his second chance. I think they can still get a bid with an 0-2 close, but this team has been too good this year for them to do that. Their bid is virtually locked up. If they dont win the CUSA Tournament, it just means a second bid for the first time since the Big East defection for this league.
