Have you been enjoying the NCAA Tournament so far? I have. We’ve had buzzer beaters. We’ve had Cinderella taking out a sectional top seed. We’ve had out first team qualify for the Field of 65 clinching the bid amid a flurry of three-pointers. Congratulations Cornell! Maybe third time is a charm for the Big Red for the now three-time Ivy Champs and they finally pull the surprise and get through the round of 64. They’re a 13-seed in Bracket Matrix. The projected four-seeds are Michigan State, Temple, Wisconsin and Tennessee. Commence breaking down hypothetical mathcups right now. We’ve had 83 teams eliminated, including 22 cuts last night alone, in the chase for Indianapolis. We still have 260 teams standing. There’s plenty of March storylines yet to be written. Some might be penned today. We have 34 elimination games on the table, including three league championship games with invites on the table and games in nine other leagues. Here’s an excellent primer on all the action scattered across the country today. I cant offer anything better, but here’s what I am keeping an eye from my personal fandom.
COLONIAL CARNIVAL
Readers of the blog know I have a bit of a fan affair with the Colonial Athletic Association. They know how well their teams do against the spread in the first round of tournament. And they know I’ve been saying most of the winter that as many as five teams could win a game in the Field of 65. That assertion took some hits when the league pretty much got worked over during Bracket Buster weekend. But, that’s not going to make this sectional any less competitive and intense. There arent too many teams playing in the quarterfinals today who dont consider themselves the favorites to win.
Does Old Dominion have a bid into the tournament? Winning the CAA with a 15-3 record gives them a lot of juice. So too does playing a tough non conference slate the includes wins over Charlotte and Georgetown. The bubble is pretty soft and I’d like to see the lists of 34 best teams that dont include the Monarchs if they need an at large bid in the end. Getting knocked out of this sectional before the championship game might be enough ammunition against this mid-major. Losing a quarterfinal game to 8th seed Towson, a team they’ve beat by double digits twice already this year would certainly be enough ammo.
George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth is a CAA Championship game drawn up in the quarterfinals. These teams have won seven of the last 14 CAA Sectionals, including three in a row and four of the last six. They have a combined 10 championship game appearances in the last eight years. Three times since 2004 these teams played each other in the finals, including twice in the last three years. Yet, here they are in the 4/5 game, but not so much because they’ve fallen back to the pack, but because the league is having such a competitive year. These teams only played once this year, a Masonhome win in overtime. No reason to think this wont be another close one. I wonder if VCU wont have too much offense this time around for Mason. They controlled the one game this year until letting it slip away in the final minutes. Playing last night in the 5/12 game might have been the best thing to happen to them. They look ready to go, while Mason really wheezed down the stretch losing six of eight entering this field.
Speaking of teams that need to regain their mojo, how about Northeastern. At one time in the middle of the conference season, the Huskies were the clear top dog in this league and one of the best ATS teams in the land. But they’ve lost four of six games and have not covered a spread in exactly four weeks. They have the 17th best scoring defense in the country and have worked over most comers from the bottom half of the league like today’s foe 7th seed Georgia State. The Huskies have one of the best forward/guard combos around with Matt Janning and Chaisson Allen.
Cinderella lives in the final pod of the day where 11th seed James Madison sprung an upset of sixth seed Drexel in the first round last night. Today’s task 3rd seeded William and Mary. The Tribe could pose an interesting argument if they win today and tomorrow and fall in a close gsame in the finals. They have wins over Wake Forest and Maryland. Their resume might stand out. Of course, what also shows up are bad losses, such as back to back clunkers against Iona and Towson in late February. Still, the Tribe are a legit threat in this sectional. They’re tough to score against and have the capability to really light it up from behind the arc. The Tribe are 15-9-1 ATS, best in the CAA and 8-14 O/U is the most tilted towards low scorers in the league. Could it be as easy as the Tribe and the Under today? Interesting. But they better be careful. JMU now has wins over Drexel, VCU and, guess who, William/Mary back in January when Denzel Bowles dropped 21 on the Tribe. The 6/10 forward has been on fire lately, averaging 20.9 points per game, including 22 points, 10 assists and 6 rebounds in the upset of the Dragons last night. Can he carry the Dukes through another round?
BUBBLE TEAMS SCOREBOARD WATCH
Fans of bubble teams everywhere probably should be wearing their Old Dominion colors. They should most certainly load up on Northern Iowa and Butler pom-poms. These teams are 5th and 8th seeds in the Bracket Matrix. Both are making the Field of 65 regardless of if they win their respective league sectionals or not. Both are playing in their semifinals today and losses by either of them now or in their finals would sap up an at large bid, squeezing the bubble.
Butler plays in the nightcap of the Horizon doubleheader today against 4th seed Wisconsin Milwaukee. The Panthers advanced to this game after beating UIC and Cleveland State in the first two rounds. Butler, of course, got a double play and is playing their first game. They won this league by 6 games and nobody beat them. On their home floor, they are overwhelming favorites to win.
If an upset were to happen, I think either of the teams in the first semifinal today could take them down if they roll their A+ game out their in the championship Tuesday night. Wrigh State always plays well in this sectional and they’ve won 8 of their 11. Seventh seed Detroit looks like a Cinderella who has no business still being alive. But, they’ve got plenty of talent, bolstered by several transfers, incoluding two from the Indiana Kelvin Sampson Shipwreck. I watched both of their games against Butler this season. They could have won both. They should have won at least one of them. Instead, they have a 2-point home loss in OT and a 5-point loss at Hinkle. If they can get by Wright State tonight, keep in mind Detroit has played Butler better than anyone has this season.
In the Missouri Valley, bubble teams hope Northern Iowa’s elite defensive numbers hold up for two more days so they wont need to steal an at large bid. They have the second best scoring defense in the nation. They’re one of the hardest teams to shoot the ball against. That’s the task for 5th seed Bradley today. They only scored 59 and 50 points against the Panthers in their two games this seasons. Have you been playing Northern Iowa and the Under this years? UNI is 18-11 ATS and the Under is 20-6. I wont lie.’m thinking about a parlay.
Winners get the Illinois State/Wichita State victor in tomorrow’s championship game. It’s hard to believe in a soft bubble year that the Valley isnt a lock to get multi bids into the field. Some feel they should. One mock bracketologist has the Shockers in his field as an at-large bid, moving them into his field as Florida, Illinois and UConn are moved out.
CAN SIENA STAY DOMINANT IN THE MAAC
Siena puts their MAAC dominance on the line when the league quarterfinals tip today. The Saints are two-time defending champions of this sectional. They’ve gone 45-8 against the MAAC the last three years, 33-3 the last two. And, they’ve advanced as far as the round of 32 two years running. They’ve playing until they lose like everyone else this weekend. I hate pulling for chalk, but I think the Field of 65 is way more compelling with them in it. If Old Dominion’s at large case in borderline, then the Saints have no chance since they lack of the schedule and out of conference wins. They are a 13th seed in the Matrix, so they’re not even close to at large range if they cant win this sectional. They cant afford a slip up. The play Manhattan in the second game of the day.
AND IN ACTION ELSEWHERE
Wofford and Appalachian State are the top two seeds in the Southern Conference, holding their quarterfinals today, playing UNC Greensboro and the Citadel respectively. College of Charleston, who beat UNC this year and is coached by Bobby Cremins, faces Chatanooga and West Carolina, who beat Louisville this year, plays Elon in the other games. The Big Sky and West Coast Conference eliminates two teams in opening round games. The WCC teams go on to play Gonzaga and St. Mary’s tomorrow. The Sun Belt eliminates four in first round games as seeds 5 through 12 compete for quarterfinal spots. And, in the Summit Conference two of their quarterfinal games are played tonight, including top seed and another team I’m rooting for Oakland, whose drive for the Field of 65 only stays alive if the beat 9th seed Missouri-Kansas City. The other top contender IUPUI also plays its quarterfinal game today at Eastern Illinois.
We’ll be keeping an eye and have more on those fields in the upcoming days.
We also have three championship games today in the Atlantic Sun, Big South and Ohio Valley. First game starts at 4:00. I’ll have a separate post highlighting those games. It’ll post before we get within an hour of that first tip.
