Bubble News: Pressure On Huskies, Irish, Hokies And Many More

Posted on March 3rd, 2010 by jamiemac 2 Comments

We lost some teams last night in the chase to cut down the nets in Indianapolis. Good bye Charleston Southern, High Point, Liberty and Valparaiso. We barely knew you. The field of 347 has been whittled down to 313 and it’s only March 3rd. Admittedly, there were no major casaulities last night, but we did see the first upset of the Madness season when the sixth seed Tennessee Tech upended third seed Austin Peay in the Ohio Valley Sectional. Their own Cinderella run will play out next on ESPN U Friday night during the OVC semis against Morehead State. They’re just 15-16, but two wins away from the Field of 65.

We also lost the Minnesota Gophers last night. Ok, not technically. They’re still alive, but its safe to say they’re as close to elimination from an at-large as you can get after laying that egg last night. Getting swept by this year’s Michigan team, especially one a 23-point loss, bars you from at large contention. I’m pretty sure it’s written in the rules somewhere. Maybe in the back. Trust me, there’s no need to double check.

We’ve reached the final Wednesday of the regular season. A significant mile marker as after Saturday, Wednesday is always the busiest day of the college basketball week. Are there any big games tonight? You bet there are.

If a game in March between top-5 teams doesnt get your juices flowing, then you must be dead. When Kansas State travels to Kansas tonight, critical NCAA and Big 12 seeding will be on the line. It’s a game between two of the best teams in the country, bitter in-state rivals and a rematch of the 81-79 classic Jayhawk win back in January. There’s some talk that the Wildcats could still get a NCAA top seed if they go into Lawrence and win and follow that up with a great Big 12 Tournament.

If a game that will decide the ACC regular season does not interest you, then I wish nothing but curling, Clipper games and classic WNBA games on a continuing loop for your future sports viewing. When Duke travels to Maryland tonight, not only will one of the better rivalries the game has seen over the last dozen years play out, but first place in the ACC is on the line. Both will win the league if they win out. The Devils will get it all to themselves, while the Terps will probably have to at least share the title. But, a co-championship is better than nothing and considering a year ago at this time people were wondering if Gary Williams had lost his mojo, getting an ACC crown would be a huge achievement. Duke smoked the Terps three weeks, so there is some revenge in the air in College Park tonight as well.

Duke and Kansas State are part of the elite group auditioning for that final #1 seed. We get a chance tonight to see them play side-by-side against top end competition from their respective leagues. Otherwise, the action, as it always is in early March, is centered around the tournament bubble. The Gophers weren’t the only ones who lost night and cost themselves valuable positioning on the bubble. The bubble shifted last night as we saw two Bracket Matrix 9-seeds, two 10-seeds and the fourth-from-last team out all lose important outcomes. That gives bubbles teams playing tonight a chance to move up and solidfy themselves and perhaps move into some of the soon-to-be-vacated spots. Here’s a glimpse of tonight action.

Charlotte at Rhode Island, 7:00, No TV. Lines, URI -7

For most of the season, it looked like the Atlantic 10 would get five bids, and flirt hard core with a sixth. In the latest straw poll of mocks, however, the league has a season low three bids in the consensus Bracket Matrix. Dayton, along with tonight’s dance partners Charlotte and Rhode Island have been the culprits on the side. All three do remain in close range of the field, within the final eight teams out of the matrix. Tonight it’s third-from-out Rams at the fifth-from-out 49ers. They’re close on the pecking order, but Rhode Island is getting way more support among the mock crowd with 29 voters compared to Charlotte’s five. The Rams were in this position a year ago, but another late season slide is pushing them into the NIT. The fact that a game between the fifth and sixth place teams in the Atlantic 10 are playing in what amounts to an at-large elimination game in the month of March even though both are coming in as losers in four of their last five, tells me the NCAA Tournament doesnt need to be much larger than it is now. In a 96-team plan, this game wouldnt really amount to anything but window dressing. Both teams would be comfortably in and the game would be meaningless. Instead, its like a battle of 8-6 NFL teams in Week 16 hot on the heels of a wild card bid. Except, in this case, the loser still has the A10 sectional to play its way back in. That said, the loser of this one is going to have to do something special in the league tournament, perhaps as much as winning it, to gain entry into the field. The winner wold remain right on the cutline and be just a win or two away from a bid.

Wake at Florida State, 7:00 ESPN 2. Lines, FSU -7

This is a game between consensus 7- and 8-seeds in the Matrix, so both teams are probably safe. If the bubble gets stronger over the next 12 days, however, I wouldnt want to be either of these teams if they dont win another game the rest of the way. That would remain an issue for the loser tonight in Tallahasee. FSU closes at Miami, so if they cant bag another win that includes that loss to the last place team and another in their opening ACC Tournament game. Wake comes in on a 3-game slide, including consecutive losses to the worst teams in the ACC, that would extend to six if they cant crack another win the rest of the way. They host Clemson on Saturday. The loser moves closer to playing themselves out of a tournament. Wake will not make the tournament if they’re on a six-game slide. Book It.

UConn at Notre Dame, 7:00 ESPN. Lines, ND -1

A battle of 12-seeds in the Bracket Matrix is about as juicy a bubble game as you can get. It’s a regular season game that makes March a special month of sports. But you know what? I’d rather Digger Phelps tell me why the winner will be in better position for a crucial 10-seed in a 96-team field. I mean as it stands now, this feels way too much like a playoff game. Who wants that? The shorthanded Irish are making a late push into the field. Both teams face tough closing day foes on Saturday with Notre Dame going to Marquette and the Huskies at USF. If either team closes 0-2, then a major Big East Tournament run will be required. But, the winner might just be one win period away from the field.

North Carolina at Virginia Tech, 7:00 No TV. Lines, VT -8.5

Stop me if you’ve heard this one. A Hokie basketball team in the thick of a hot bubble chase losses a heartbreaker in the closing sequences. For the third season in a row, being on the short end of one too many close games might cost Seth Greenberg’s outfit a bid. Their 104-100 overtime loss at home to Maryland over the weekend was classic deja vu. They are in much better position this year, than in the past two so they’re hardly dead. As the Matrix stands now they are in the field as an 11-seed with 60 of 74 mock votes. But, they come into this game on a three-game losing streak. If Wake could fall out from their 8-spot if they close on a six-game slide, then the Hokies wont even be an afterthough on Selection Sunday if they do the same. This is a must win for them tonight against the 11th place Wolfpack. But, in a 96-team field, they would just be playing for seeding. Which set of stakes would you rather watch be played for tonight?

Temple at St. Louis, 8:00 No TV. Lines, Temple -3.5

If league brethern URI and Charlotte are firmly on the bubble, competing for an NCAA bid, then why arent the Bilikens? That could completely change this week if St. Louis can close 2-0 with wins tonight over Temple and Saturday at Dayton. It would give them a 12-4 record in the Atlantic 10 and at least two games better in the standings than three of the other league teams on the bubble. It would also give them their most conference wins since the single season Larry Hughes played for the Lew. They have a poor non-league mark that includes losses to Georgia, Iowa State, Missouri State and Bowling Green. They’re still making up ground for those offenses, but almost all of it might be made up if they close 2-0. They could be an A1o quarterfinal win away from making the field. As for Temple, they’re playing for a league title. Currently a consensus 4-seed in the Matrix, the Owls will win at least a share of the regular season crown and be the top seed in the A10 tournament. They host George Washington on Saturday.

Mississippi State at Auburn, 8:00 ESPN Full Court. Lines, MSU -2.5

The case of Mississippi State brings out some strong emotions. I’m not sure they belong in the field right now either, but 39 out of 74 mock bracketolgists disagree with both me and the good folks at BaselineStats. As a 12-seed, at-large candidate headed into the final week, the Bulldogs are hardly secure. Tonight’s game can do more harm than good. A win keeps them running in place, which isnt a bad thing, per se, if you’re a team already feeling good about its invite. MSU is not in that camp. A loss, however, to one of the lesser SEC teams, even on the road, will probably be enough to corner the Bulldogs into a checkmate position. They’ll be forced to go on a big run in the SEC Tournament to get into the field, which incidentally is the same road map they used a year ago to eventually qualify. Tuck away the winnable road game tonight, and its set themselves to all but lock in a bid with a home win over Tennessee on Saturday in the finale.

Oklahoma State at Texas A/M, 9:00 ESPN 2. Lines, Tamu -6

Tune in to this one to see what teams who are actually clinching a bid look like. You would have thought this to be a critical bubble game a couple weeks ago, but these teams have played well enough as of late to see their fortunes raise. The Aggies just beat Texas and the Cowboys took down Kansas their last time out. They are 6- and 8-seeds respectively in the Matrix. Both are unanimous selections. It would take an 0-3 close to the season, plus enough impressive charges from teams in the middle of the bubble pack to get either of these clubs out of the field.

Memphis at UAB, 9:00 No TV. Lines, UAB -2.5

If the Conference USA is to earn a rare at-large bid on the merits of a team resume, then that candidate will come from the winner of this game. So this is not merely another game on the schedule. The Blazers currently place in the Matrix as an 11-seed with 66 of 74 mocks giving them the approval. Memphis is far back, netting just two votes. But the Tigers probably could still grab an at large if they win out in the regular season and go on a run as far as the finals in the CUSA sectional. The Blazers really need to do the same. Win out the regular season and at least play to their seed in the league finals next week. This is an at-large elimination game. Any chance to see Mike Davis try and manage a big game with heavy stakes is worth watching, right?

Colorado State at San Diego State, 10:30 No TV. Lines, SDSU -14.5

The only teams to beat SDSU in the last 50 days are New Mexico and BYU, teams currently ranked in the top-15 in the nation. I dont think the Aztecs will get any juice by closing out with wins at home against CSU and on the road against Air Force. But it will set them up to probably get a bid without having to win the MWC sectional. Right now they’re second-from-out of Matrix consensus with 33 votes. Its going to be hard to stop them from collecting more votes if they keep adding on wins.

(Programming note: We’ll have a picks post up later in the today, so please stay tuned. Cheers!)

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