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Bubble News: Illinois, Florida In Or Out?
Posted on March 2nd, 2010 by jamiemac 2 CommentsTwo big time basketball programs find themselves on the bubble ropes during the final week of the regular season, but each has a resume game tonight where a win could all but seal their invite, while a loss might be enough of a push to cement themselves as NIT Bound.
I’m talking about Illinois out of the Big 10 and Florida from the SEC. Both are seeded on the 10 line in the current Bracket Matrix. Florida’s support seems more secure at this point with 73 of 74 mock bracketologists putting them in their field. The Illini, however, saw a lot of support waver in the wake of their home Bubble Brawl loss to Minnesota on Saturday. They received just 58 of a total 74 votes. That’s less votes than all the other at large teams sharing the 10-line with them and only two at large berths, per Matrix consensus, have less votes than the Illini. Tonight offers a swing game for both programs as their eventual tournament fates begin to crystallize.
Illinois enters the final week of the regular season with their at large hopes in clear jeopardy. Should they roll into Columbus tonight and take down the Buckeyes, they’ll go from in jeopardy to near-lock status. Such is the fine line between being an NCAA or NIT team. A few weeks ago, Ohio State trounced Illinois in Champagne, so the Illini need a total 180 with performance and results to get it done on the road in tonight’s rematch. That’s going to be tough comsidering the way the Bucks have been peaking the last six weeks. They began the Big 10 year 1-3, but a win tonight clinches at least a share of their third conference title in the last six years.
But, this is about bubble talk, so we’ll leave the Buckeye’s pursuit for a better NCAA seed alone. Let’s focus instead on the Illini’s resume. They’ve lost three of four to go from Big 10 title contender to bubble team. The have some nice wins over Vanderbilt, at Clemson, Michigan State and at Wisconsin. But, they also have some sketchy losses to Utah, Bradley and Georgia. They’ve been swept by Purdue and lost to Gonzaga and Missouri. To a certain extent, the Illini should get credit for the ambitious schedule they’ve played, even if the results have been inconsistent. If they dont win another regular season game, they still will be 10-8 in the Big 10. I have a hard time believing that a team with a winning record in the Big 10 who also played a rugged non conference slate would get left out of the dance. But, with their support already on the wane, it’s just as hard to not believe that teams wont pass them if they put an 0-2 week on the board.
I think the Illini’s charge this week is simple to define. Get a win. It might not come tonight if Pomeroy’s numbers are to be taken literally as he gives Illinois just a 15-percent at beating the Buckeyes. That would load up a lot of pressure on the Illini in their finale at home Saturday against Wisconsin. If Illinois gets one of these games this week, I think they will make the field. If they dont, I just hope the proliferation of IlliniGoIdiots dont push Loren Tate into an early grave.
As for Florida, they might be in the same boat as the Illini. Just nab a win this week and things will probably work out for them. They have nice non league wins over Michigan State and Florida State that will resonate with the Selection Committee. They also have losses to Syracuse, Richmond, Xavier and South Alabama, but only the latter defeat could haunt them in the end. As for SEC play, they stand 9-5 as of today, but only a win over Tennessee stands out as an impressive league win. The Gators have a chance to improve that resume this week. Tonight they play host to Vanderbilt. If they cant add to their resume tonight with a win, they face the daunting task of doing so in the closer on the road in Lexington against Kentucky. If the magic number is 10 SEC wins, then an 0-2 week could be a a fatal blow.
Who knows for sure, but as long as the Gators and Illini dont get shutout this week, they will likely be dancing. If they cant, then they might want to make a run in their respective league tournaments. They would have to survive in those fields long enough to add a resume win, so I dont know if a single win next weekend would do it. Their safest road map to the field are wins this week and they each have a chance to get a resume scalp on national television tonight.
Of course, Florida and Illinois arent the only teams playing tonight with bubble implications on the line. When Louisville travels to Marquette tonight, the winner will ease closer to lock status, while the loser better wrap the season up Saturday with a win. Cincinnati will try to to spark a late rally to a bid by springing an upset over Villanova. South Florida has the avoid the bad loss and nab the proverbial winnable road game over Depaul to jumpstart their own late run into the field. We talked about the State of the Big East a bit more exclusively yesterday. Minnesota travels to Ann Arbor to play Michigan. The Gophers looked dead three weeks when the struggling Wolverines beat them in the Barn. The loss earlier to Michigan awoke them from their slumber, and their hopes are on the uptick after the road win at Illinois over the weekend. Michigan remains a struggling team, and if the Gophers want to harbor real hopes for an at-large bid, they have to emerge from Crisler Arena with a win. And, what are we to do with Georgia Tech? They’re a solid looking 9-seed in the Bracket Matrix. But, if they lose this game, they fall below .500 in ACC play and end the season in Blacksburg against Virginia Tech. Like Illinois, Florida, Marquette and many other tournament hopefuls, I dont think they can survive an 0-2 final week and expect to be in the field when the league sectionals begin.
All told, we have six teams seeded 9th or worse in the Bracket Matrix, as well as a three more jockeying for position just outside of the Matrix, either going head to head or playing tough competition this evening. Combined with the opening of a handful of mid-major tournaments this evening, its a great day for college basketball.
Picks? Picks!
Well it is March, so maybe its time to throw down on some games. It’s been over a week since the blog’s last basketball picks and the last time we had any picks around here it was on Olympic hockey. Maybe its time to return to what we know, eh? Here’s my two pick card:
Florida -3 over Vanderbilt, 1 Unit…….unranked favorite over ranked team. Those always interest me, as regular readers of the blog know. We’ll give it a whirl tonight.
Marquette -1 over Louisville, 1 Unit…..I think Marquette is the better team. They’re at home. I doubt the Cards can put consecutive killer road efforts on the board.
Filed under: Book It, Bubble News, College Basketball | 2 Comments »
Good post, I’ve sent this page onto my family – we all need to read this right now.
Good post, I’ve sent this page onto my family – we all need to read this right now.