Featured Posts
Bubble News: The State Of The Big East
Posted on March 1st, 2010 by jamiemac 2 CommentsWith one week to go in the regular season, some things are beginning to crystallize in the world of Big East basketball. Syracuse has clinched no worse than a share of the regular season title. They will be the top seed in next week’s Big East Tournament. Barring a collapse, they will also be one of the four #1 seeds in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Villanova needs to win out, including the Big East Finals, to make a legit claim for one of the other NCAA top seeds. The Cats are one game ahead with two to play for the BE Tournament’s #2 seed. West Virginia and Pitt are tied for third and fourth and look good in the chase for the all-important double byes during the Big East Tournament. Louisville and Marquette are both a game behind in that pursuit, so there’s still some drama in that department.
So the top of the Big East standings look about as locked in place as you can get headed into the final week of regular season. The same can not be said for the rest of standings, particularily the middle portion where the Big East bubble teams all reside. I think it’s safe to say the league will qualify seven teams into the NCAA field. I think they’re a good bet to get eight teams into the field before its all said and done. Some bracketologists have pegged nine teams from the Big East in their field. The four teams currently at the top, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia and Pitt, along with Georgetown have their bids assured. But, whoever gets the other 2-3 bids, depending on where the eventual cutline is, remains murky with as many as seven teams feeling they can still make a legit claim if they close the season strong. All will eventually be seeded anywhere between 5-12 in the Big East Tournanment, so we wont get any true closure until at least next week. The second day of that sectional, when teams in that range are supposed to play each other could be the most important day of the made-for-TV ESPN Fest that is Championship Week. Let’s first take a look at the final regular season week and what may be determined in advance of the conference tournament.
MONDAY
Georgetown at West Virginia, 7:00, ESPN…….the last Big Monday game of the season is one with just Big East Tournament and seeding on the line. The ‘Neers can nab a #2 in both brackets with a strong finish. The Hoyas will likely be seeded much better in the NCAA Tournament than they will be in next week’s local field. They could be a #2 in the NCAAs if they win out and claim the conference tournament title. But, in that field, they might not even be higher than a 5- or 6-seed. Should be a fun game and the last call of the season for the McDonough-Bilas-Rafferty team, whom I enjoy listening to.
TUESDAY
Villanova at Cincinnati, 7:00, ESPN 2….the Bearcats are going to be one of the more compelling arugments as Selection Sunday nears. Currently, their record of 16-12, 7-9 hardly looks worthy. But their resume of wins does, including scalps of Maryland, Vanderbilt and a sweep of UConn. The arguments over Cincy will go up in volume if they get this home win over Villanova. How many bubble teams would have a better top-5 of resume wins? I’d wager on the Under.
Louisville at Marquette, 9:30 ESPN U….Both had been considered teams in the field in recent weeks, but never have they been close to secure. The winner in this one might just move into ‘lock’ status as far as their bid is concerned. Both teams still have a road map to get one of the top-4 seeds and a double bye in the BE Tournament. They would need to win out and get a little help this week, but its not out of the question. Both teams really helped themselves over the weekend with the Cardinals getting a big road win over UConn and Marquette surviving an overtime classic against Seton Hall. The loser might still be in good shape. But, I dont want to be either of these teams if they cant pick up another win the rest of the way. That wont be an issue for the winner.
USF at Depaul, 7:30 ESPN U…….the Bulls were a late January darling. February was as unkind to them, however, as the Olympics were to the Russian contigent. Hey-O!! Anyway, I dont think the Bulls are done by any stretch. They remain right in the middle of Big East bubble jam. They tuck this winnable road game into the books in their favor and they face UConn at home in the finale. If the Bulls go 2-0 this week, they might be a short win or two away from making it into the final field. But, lets not put the cart before the horse. They dropped some winnable games in February. A loss in this one pretty much forces them to win the automatic bid next week. A must win.
St. John’s at Syracuse, 7:00 ESPN Full Court…….one of the few meaningless games in the Big East the rest of the way. The Johnnies have been better than expected this season. They’ve been much improved from a year ago, but still wont be seeded better than 13th in next week’s league tournament. Nevertheless, it would not surprise me in the least to see win a couple of games next week and advance as far as the Big East quarterfinals. Can they spring an upset against the Orange. Conventional wisdon says the Cuse already has a #1 NCAA seed locked up. We’ll see if any of the recalibrates should they lose this one.
WEDNESDAY
UConn at Notre Dame, 7:00 ESPN…..suddenly the stakes have been raised tenfold in this game. A week ago, it was but a winnable road game for the Huskies in their late season recovery and charge towards the tournament. Now there’s more in the middle of table. The Huskies, after dropping an all-too-familiar feeling heartbreaker to Louisville over the weeeknd, could really use the resume win. And, well, now Notre Dame is the hot team, making a run at an at large bid. Just exactly who are these guys? And playing without star Luke Harangody, to boot. You know, the Irish have not been able to stop the other team’s best front court player for two years running. Maybe that’s why they’re playing better without their star scorer. Just a thought. Getting back to the eventual bracket, the Huskies currently sit as a 12-seed in the Bracket Matrix with 57 out of 73 current mocks voting for them. Notre Dame is the third from last cut and is in 26 of 73 brackets. Only 40 of the mocks have updated in Saturday’s play and the Irish are in 25 of them, while the Huskies are in 33. So, the support is more even among the updated mocks. Plenty of folks have them both in their field right now, but with one losing in this head-to-head, I doubt that lasts.
THURSDAY
Seton Hall at Rutgers, 7:00 ESPN…..the Pirates need to be road warriors to close the season. If they can win out at Rutgers and at Providence, they will level their Big East record and be a couple wins next week away from a 20-win season. Tonight needs to be the start of at least a four-game winning streak that could possibly get them as far as the Big East semifinals for them to grab an at large bid. Any losses this week and they are certainly auto bid or nothing.
Providence at Pitt, 9:00 ESPN 2…..for NCAA and Big East Tournament seedings only. The Panthers are trying to become a top-4 team in the Big East and lock down something akin to a 3-seed in the NCAAa. The Friars are in the bottom four of the Big East. They are playing out the string and need a winning streak just to make any postseason.
FRIDAY
St. John’s at Depaul, 8:30 ESPN Full Court……Nothing really on the line for the Demons, who are locked in as the #16 seed in the Big East Tournament. Good luck with that. Oh Dave Leaito, where art thou? The Johnnies, though, might need the win just to qualify for a postseason tournament, not to mention possible BE Tourney seeding somewhere in the 12-14 seed range. If you spend your Friday night watching this one, do not admit said fact to the people in your life.
SATURDAY
West Virginia at Villanova, noon, CBS……..If Nova loses and the Mountaineers win their respective games this week, then this game could be for the #2 seed in the BE Tournament. Otherwise, its a contest between great teams jockeying to get into the best position on the tournament bracket line to make a run for Indy and the Final Four.
Cincy at Georgetown, noon, ESPN 360…..if Cincy misses their chance during the week for a resume home win over Villanova, then they will need this resume road win at Georgetown to stay in contention for an at large. If they nab that Nova win, then a win here might just put them in the field, regardless of outcome in the Big East Tournament. Above we speculated about how many teams would have a better top-5win resume than the Cats should they beat Nova. If they follow up with this road win, the number of teams with a top-6 resume win list better than Cincy’s would be even smaller than that. They have enough on their resume, where they could go 1-1 this week and still be able to grab a bid without needing to win the BE Tournament. Two wins or reaching the semifinals could do the trick.
Syracuse at Louisville, 2:00, ESPN…….let’s say Louisville loses earlier in the week to Marquette. Can they truly afford to not win any more games and still get in the field? If they beat Marquette, they are locks and this is just a good basketball game. If they lose, then the Cards–who beat the Orange in the Carrier Dome last month–may need to do it again here. Bottomline: As safe as the Cards look today, I think they need one more win either this week or in next week’s Big East postseason in order to be certain of their inlclusion.
UConn at USF, 2:00, ESPN Full Court…….Add a Huskie loss and a Bull win from weekday play and this becomes an unofficial bubble elimination game. If they both win, then it maybe becomes a play-in game for UConn and a great chance for the Bulls to leapfrog UConn in the pecking order. If both come in off a loss, then only the winner will still have at large hopes heading into the Big East Tournament. At various times this season, both of these teams have looked like a sure thing to make the field and, at other times, a sure bet to be relegated to the NIT. As the final regular season week hits, both these teams are somewhere in between those sureties. This ought to be one of the more compelling bubble games of the weekend.
ND at Marquette, 2:00 ESPN Full Court….did you read the last graph about Louisville? In that case, it’s ditto for Marquette. If they beat the Cards early in the week, they are in and this game is just seed window dressing. If they lose, well that can not afford to lose out and expect a bid. If Notre Dame comes in off a win over UConn, then this could be the final piece for them to as far as getting a bid. If Marquette comes in off a loss and the Irish are off a win, then there could be some buzz about this being an unofficial NCAA Tournament play-in game.
Seton Hall at Providence, 7:00, ESPN 360………….this game is only important if the Hall comes in off a win over Rutgers from earlier in the week. If so, then this needs to be win #2 of a 4-game winning streak that could very well net them an at large bid. If not, it’s just for seeding in the BE Tourney and to sharpen their games in advance because they’ll have to win the whole sectional to get into the field of 65.
Pitt at Rutgers, 4:30, ESPN Full Court……………nothing but final seeding will be on the line in this one.
Picks? Picks!
Well, we have no point spreads on these games, so it wont be that kind of picks post. But, I will e-predict that the league gets eight teams into the Big Dance. Color Louisville and Marquette invited. I think South Florida ends up the eighth team. I think they go 2-0 this week and the win Saturday over UConn puts them in position to clinch a bid next week in Madison Square Garden. The Irish and Huskies wont get out of this week unscathed and will fall back.Cincy looks out of gas and I dont think they grab a win this week. Heading into the BE Tournament, the pecking order for a possible eigth bid from the conference will be USF, Notre Dame, UConn and Cincy.
Filed under: Bubble News, College Basketball | 2 Comments »
[...] winnable road game over Depaul to jumpstart their own late run into the field. We talked about the State of the Big East a bit more exclusively yesterday. Minnesota travels to Ann Arbor to play Michigan. The Gophers [...]
[...] winnable road game over Depaul to jumpstart their own late run into the field. We talked about the State of the Big East a bit more exclusively yesterday. Minnesota travels to Ann Arbor to play Michigan. The Gophers [...]