Winter Olympics: Hockey Quarterfinals Eliminate Gold Medal Contenders

If Sunday was considered a great day for hockey, then what is today? Frankly, its a better day. The matchups are almost as juicy across the board. And, well, this isn’t round robin play anymore. We’re at the quarterfinals of the knockout stage. We’ll be sending at least two teams home today that didnt just dream of a gold medal, but expected one. Winners advance to the medal round. Losers face a ton of home country angst and hard questions on the structure of the teams they put together.

If today is anything like yesterday’s qualification round, then expect a lot of drama, close games and anxious fans. Of the four games yesterday, only Canada’s laugher against Germany was over early. The other three games all were decided by a single goal, with the underdogs going 2-1-1 ATS. The Swiss had to go all the way to the shootout stage before putting away Belarus. The Czechs dodged a major upset bid by downing surprise Latvia with a golden goal midway through the overtime session. In the nightcap, Slovakia, suddenly everybody’s medal darkhorse, was deadlocked with Norway midway through the third period before scoring the go ahead goal and hanging on for the 4-3 win. The end result? The four biggest longshots to win this tournament were all eliminated yesterday. And, there’s no rest for the winners. All advance into today’s quarterfinals to play much tougher foes.

As the final winter olympic hockey bracket crystallized, the odds shifted. Prior to the Olympics, the Canadians were the chalk. The best price you could get them at was even money, but places like sportsbook.com had them as expensive as -200 to take home gold. The Russians were 2/1 or less across the board at various books. Per BoDog,  the pre-Olympics odds for the other contenders today had the Swedes at 5.5/1, USA at 6/1, the Czechs 15/1, Finland 16/1, Slovakia 40/1 and the Swiss 125/1. 

By gaining the top seed, the Americans have gone from underdogs to one of the favorites. But at 7/2, the Americans still arent one of the top two teams per the betting public. Those designations still belong to Canada and Russia.  One will be ousted before the day ends, adding an element of danger to any bet on either country to win the gold. Both have better payouts today on the future lines than they did a week ago, but they still remain the co-favorites with Canada at 9/5 and Russia 11/4. Thats pretty close to 2/1 and 3/1. Considering you had to pay 200 just to win 100 on the Habs prior to the first face off last week and today you can get them at practicially the oppositie price, that’s what we would call value in the capping world.  Sweden is now 5/1; Finland 11/1; Czechoslovakia 12/1; Slovakia 25/1; and the Swiss remain the 125/1 longshot they were before the tournament began. Place your bets accordingly. And in between action, ponder if the NHL should adopt the Olympic point system.

USA vs Switzerland, 3:00 est. Lines, USA -2.5, O/U 5.5

Team USA opens the quarterfinals againt the Swiss, 30 years to the day they clinched their last gold medal with a win over Finland to cap the 1980 Miracle On Ice. With that kind of historic karma on their side, there is no way they lose today to the Swiss, right?

I wont lie. I’m worried about the Swiss this afternoon. How could you not. I’m worried that after two hard-pressed games with lots of expectations on them, the Swiss are playing today in the underdog role they relish. I’m worried because  like every underdog with sharp teeth in this sport they have a goalie who can rise up and throw a 44-save game on the board. I’m worried that sniper Martin Pluss, who had six goals through 11 international games entering the game, has no goals yet in the Olympics. I’m worried the Swiss are having a career year with a recent fourth place finish in the world junior championships. I’m worried about being a victim in a storybook last hurrah to close out a coach’s career. I’m worried about the fact when I see the world rankings, I notice USA is sixth and the Swiss are seventh. I worry because the Swiss are experienced and defensive minded with a goalie who can dominate any foe and are more than capable of turning this in a 2-2 bogfest into the third period. I worry after watching Latvia plays the Czechs so much better the second time around that they nearly pulled off the upset. The Americans topped the Swiss 3-1 a week ago, but if the Swiss close the gap in this rematch as much as the Latvians did last night, then this game will be more than in doubt into the third period.

This game begins and ends with Jonas Hiller. The current goalie for the Anaheim Ducks needs to be the best player on the ice today for the Swiss to advance. He was great against Canada last week, but has struggled in the last two games against Norway and Belarus. Yesterday, he was downright shaky, giving up a bad goal, sloppy puck handling and positioning himself poorly on a number of shots. Hiller has been one of the best goalies on the planet the last five years. He won Elite Swiss League titles before coming over to the Ducks. He quickly became the starter, supplanting longtime netminding hero Jean-Sebastian Giguerre. He shutout the Sharks to open the NHL postseason last year, spearheading the fourth ever first round upset of a top NHL seed. He goalkeeping extended the second round series against Detroit to seven games nearly knocking off the defending champs. The Swiss hopes rest with him today. If he nabs more than 40 saves, then the Swiss have a shot. If he doesnt, then the Americans ought to walk away with at least a 2-goal win.

Hiller is one of two NHLers playing on the Swiss team. The other being Mark Streit, defensemen for the New York Islanders. He has barely been off the ice during the four games the Swiss have already played. With Hiller and Streit, this team is built around its defense. Severin Blindenbacher plays in the Swedish Elite League and has been a maintsay on Swiss national teams for years. The most intriguing guy to watch on their blue line is 20-year-old Luca Sbisi. He is one of the best young defensive prospects in the world. The Ducks demanded and received his rights when they dealt off Chris Pronger to the Flyers. He was the 19th overall pick in the 2008 draft. He’s playing for the Ponrtland Winterhawks of the WHL, but will probably be with the Ducks should they make the playoffs. He was a stud for the Swiss Juniors last month when they skated to a surprise fourth place finish. Can he elevate his game and be a factor today? He’ll have to play beyond his years, but perhaps not beyond his skill level, to help contain the Americans.

Otherwise, the Swiss arent known for their offensive game. Their top guns are Pluss,  Hnat  Domenichelli and Matias Seger, the latter two are among the top-10 in scoring this year in the Swiss League. Roman Wick has been an amzing playmaker so far this tournament, Thierry Paterlini is another good skater who has impressed me the last week with his sneaky offensive game. Overall, the Swiss will not overwhelm you with offense. They dont have the firepower. And, if Hiller remains as shaky as he’s been in recent outings against Norway and Belarus, then they could have a long uphill climb this afternoon.

Canada vs Russia, 7:30 est. Lines, Canada -140, Russia +120, O/U 5.5

Do you think this game has caught the eye of the hockey world. Crosby vs Ovechkin. And, instead of beging buried on Versus in a barely covered hokcye game by the American press, its takes place in primetime under the Olympic spotlight. We’ve waited since the Opening Ceremonies to see the Olympics stop when these two bitter rivals would play for national pride. Let me be the eleventy-billionth person to mention that this was supposed to be the gold medal game, not a mere quarterfinal. Much is made of the burgeoning USA/Canada rival, but make no mistake, Canada/Russia is the traditional rivalry at the heart of International hockey.

But, Canada has underachieved in this tournament, falling all the way to the sixth seed and the qualification round. What ills Team Canada, lets count the ways. Maybe we should not be shocked that the team with Chris Drury beat the team with Joe Thorton in a big game. Despite the tough draw, its not hard to come up five reasons to still like them for the Gold, but the five reasons they wont make me even think they’ll be lucky to advance much farther than today. Ah, but the message from team executive director and greatest-captain-of-all-time Stevie Yzerman is clear, and consise:  Canada, calm down. Nevertheless, there’s no middle ground for Team Canada on this one. It’s been gold or bust the whole time. While that doest separate themselves too much from the other contenders in the field, a deep run, not a quarterfinal exit is not what anybody expected in their home Olympiad.

Team Canada easily dispatched the Germans in the qualification round. The Canadians should really thank the Americans for pushing them in this extra game. Canada played its best team game last night, with each line chipping in some offensive chances and, perhaps more importanly, bringing its physical game. They sure did check last night like it was an elimination do-or-die game. Which it was and maybe being used to the one-and-done consqeunces of these rounds ahead of time will help give them an added edge of urgency early in this game. The extra game still put the Canadians in a quarterfinal match with the Russias, so dont expect any true thank-you cards headed the Americans way for putting their northern neighbors in this showdown today.

Maybe its out of that desperation that they’ve switched goalies, shelving Martin Broduer for Roberto Loungo. Canada coach Mike Babcok botched the goalie situation. Or maybe he did the right thing. Regardless of which side of the argument you fall on, one thing is pretty darn clear: this will be a career defining moment for Loungo. Playing in his NHL home city. The weight of the nation suddenly resting on his ability to slow down a Russian onslaught. And then win two more games. No pressure, kid.

A change in net was not the only different with the Canadians last night. Babcock also switched up his lines in the infinite quest that first Pittsburgh and now Team Canada are on the find the perfect winger compliment to Sidney Crosby. Of course, Babcock has deeped options that the Penguins do, and I dont know if there is a wrong answer, at least on this roster. In an attempt to maybe add some size to the ideal wing alongside Sid The Kid, we saw Eric Stahl play on his line last night as well as giving Jarome Iginla a more consistent place on the other wing. It paid off as the trio combined for six points as the Habs slow, but surely pulled away from the Germans last night.

If anyone can relate to the Martin Brodeur benching it’s probably Team Russian GM Vladislav Tretiak. He went from greatest goalie in the world to bench warmer during the famous USA 1980 upset over the USSR. But, he probably doesnt have time to really empathize with Brodeur as Team Russia faces their own anxiety heading into today’s death match. If there is a team with more pressure on it from the motherland that the Candaians, it’s Team Russia.

Things are bad in the Russian camp too. They were desperate and resigned themselves with a lineup shuffle that put Ovechkin and Evgeny Malkin on the same line. Geez, if only I had their kind of problems. On a serious note, that shuffle did the trick. They looked great together against the Czechs and probably provide the best line of these games. Just the whole dynamic of the Crosby/Ovechkin rivalry takes on a different tone with Malkin on the other side. Malkin and Ovie dont like each other, specifically from the Penguin/Cap rivalry, but its interesting how those feelings tend to subside when playing for Mother Russia. Ovechkin took out Jagr Sunday in a move that really changed the game. Does he have a play like that in him tonight? Will it come at the expense of Crosby?

Russia only has 14 NHL players on their roster, a smaller amount than the Czechs, Fins and Swedes. But, ah, quantity does not make quality. Ever heard of that one? Well, when you’re so stacked that Pavel Datsyuk is the third most explosive player on the team, then it doesnt really matter that you may have 2-3 less NHL players than most of the other contenders. Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeny Malkin and Pavel Datsyuk. Its safe to say if you bring those guys as your three best players, you have a chance to win any tournament. Malkin is the reigning league scoring champ. Ovechkin is the biggest force in hockey today. Datsyuk is a brillian two way player, every bit as talented, if not celebrated, as Sergie Federov was in his prime with the Wings. Oh, speaking of Fedorov, he’s on the team, taking a break from his season in the Russian KHL.

Finland vs Czechoslavakia, 10:00 est. Lines, Czechs even, Finland -120, O/U 5

Just because it lacks the Ovechkin vs Crosby appeal doesnt make the Czech/Finland Quarterfinal game any less desperate for the clubs involved. They play each other in the 4/5 game tonight. It would be a major disappointment to fans of both nations if they dont get a chance to at least play for a medal.

Watching a rejuvenated Jaromir  Jagr in this tournament has us all wondering if he could return to NHL.  Then, he gets nicked up a little in the first period and never returns in the Latvia game and we remember how brittle he was when he finally left the league. His status remains up in the air. This game is a toss-up, but naturally you have to favor the Finns if Jagr is a no go.

The key in playing the Czechs is the old hockey cliche of staying out of the box. You cant really give any of these teams too many power plays, but, to me, the Czech powerplay, bolstered by as good a scoring set of forwards of anyone else in this tournament, is the one thing that could help the Czechs overcome the long odds of beating three elite teams in a row for gold. They also have Tomas Kaberle, arguably the best point man on the power play in the NHL and there’s no shortage of forwards to crash the boards and the goal for all the pucks he directs back inside the zone with the man advantage.  Its been interesting watching Kaberle play in these games. Sometimes for the Leafs, he’s a bit hesistant to look for his offense. He’s taken a way more aggressive approach thus far in the Olympics. Will that continue and, more importanly, will it pay off against the Finns? They’ve had the most power plays so far of anyone else in these Olympics. Until their hiccup against the Russians on Sunday, they had looked as impressive as anybodyelse in the field. I dont find that power play fact unrelated.

Jagr might be the only star power this team has. But the NHL junkie will be quick to point out the goal scoring talent on this team. Patrick Elias, Milan Michalek, Tomas Fleischman, Martin Havlat, Martin Erat and David Krejci are regular goal scorers in the NHL, even if nobody outside their home markets know it. Elias, Fleischman and Krejci spent much of the early NHL season injured or recovering, but they all started to see a peak in their game heading into the Olympics. Krejci and Havlat have been on fire during the Olympics. It’s a deep scoring team with accomplished goal scorers straight form the NHL. And, they’ve add Jarg to the mix. You can see why you discount them at your risk.

Havlat was very active last night, seemed to be able to get a shot on net whenever he wanted. Krejci has regained the offensive touch during these Olympics that he displayed last season before injuries in the fall set him back. Can both carry over their play tonight? The Czechs took way too many power plays last night, and luckily they were playing sombody whose last win in Olympic play was eight years ago in a ninth place game. The Latvians werent able to take advantage, the Fins will be able to tonight.

The Czechs have 17 players from the NHL. Of the remaining seven, four play in the elite KHL league in Russia, largely considered the second best professional league in the world after the NHL. Finland aint shabby either. Eighteen of their players are from the NHL with four of the remaining five imported from the Russian KHL. The names are familiar. The Koivu brother, Saku and Mikko, the Ruutu brothers Toumo and Jarkko, Teemu Selanne and Jere Lehitinen. One Fin to look out for is Valterri Flippula. A Red Wing, he’s battled injuries  this season, but is now back in the lineup has picked up where’s he always left off. Never on the top line, but always able to produce some offense. He’s the type of player who can get you a goal and an assist in a big game without having to do anything his normal A-game wont do. You know it, he’s my sneaky pick to click, yo.

In all seriousness, this team comes to Vancouver with unfinished business. Silver medals in Torino were nice. But, 15 players came back from that team, specifically to run for an historic gold this time around. A quarterfinal exit would be bitter disaappointmnet, four years in the making for those players who came oh so close four years ago. This is very much like the team four years ago. In 2006, the Fins had four of the 10 overall scorers in the tournament. All four return. As does the main defensive core from a team that gave up just a goal per game on average during the 2006 Games. It’s a talented team that knows exactly what to do, and how to play in these types of games. Besides, any team from the same country as Santa and thats bulking itself up every year can not be discarded from a hockey tournament.

Sweden vs Slovakia, midnight, est. Lines, Swededn -1.5, O/U 5.

People seem to be underestimating Sweden as we head into the quarterfinals. They’re only the defending Olympic Gold Medalists. And, after Canada and USA, they have to most NHLers on their roster. They also got a boost with the return of Peter Forsberg to the National team. They have a tricky quarterfinal match today with Slovakia. After the Slovaks beat the Russians, they have become a treny darkhorse pick to at least medal. Meanwhile, their long odds for gold have shrunk from 40/1 to 25/1. More than half their team comes from the NHL and another 8 players arrive from the Russian KHL. Marion Hossa, Marian Gaborik and Pavol Demitra are all household names to the common NHL fan.

What I enjoy the most watching Team Sweden play is the chance to watch Nicklas Backstrom do his thing.  He’s only the best center on the best team in the NHL. Yet, nobody knows his name. Ovie does have linemates, you know.It’s not at all illegitimate to ask the question who really makes whom good in Washington? But, he’s got a killer game and if the Swedes end up defending the their gold medal with him in a starring MVP role, I’m ok with that. And, it would add even more notoriety in the budding Caps/Pens rivalry the NHL is starting to hitch its ride to. Also of intrigue are the Sedin twins, Daniel and Heinrik, two of the most popular Vancouver Canucks, but, of course, playing for Team Sweden in their NHL hometown. Talk about an odd Olympic experience for them.

Picks? Picks!

After all that, you probably want some picks, right? Who am I to say who will win these games. Besides, the nice, somewhat accurate reputation the JCB has carved out in recent months was not achieved on the backs of hockey games. Right now, I like Finland to beat the Czechs and that’s about it. I mean, do you really need to gamble on Russia vs Canada to enjoy it? Honestly, you dont. Anyway, we have more than 2 hours before the first game starts. If I end up making any picks, I will send them out via twitter.

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