The Olympics are coming into its final turn and the medal counts are anybody’s game. Well, not really anybody. It’s a legit two-horse race between the Americans and Germans for most overall medals. Team USA has been the lead dog from the first day of competition. They’ve pretty much had twice as many medals than just about every other country since the games began over ten days ago. Except for Germany. The Germans have been in hot pursuit all along, tying the Americans at one point late last week before another Team USA flurry of medals throughout the weekend expanded their lead back up to seven. But, the Germans are closing again. Skeleton, Bobsled and Nordic skiiing medals the last two days has been enough to overcome Bode Miller’s gold in the combined ski and the American pairs figure skating silver medal during the same time. As it stands heading into today, Team USA has 25 medals, four more than the Germans 21. Norway, 14, Russia, 11 and Canada, 10 are the only other countries with double digits. The overall medal count is a decided two-team race over the final six days of competition.
The same can not be said in the pursuit for the most gold medals as five countries are within two golds of another as the final week of competition gets underway. Team USA and Germany are tied with 7, Norway has 6 and Canada and Switzerland both have 5. Dont sleep on the Swiss or Canadians right now. There is more than enough skiiing for the Swiss to take over and add to their gold count. As far as the Canadians, they remain the favorite to home gold in both men’s and women’s hockey and curling. If they follow through and sweep those events and find a way a to pick up 1 or 2 more golds somewhere, they might be hard to beat. As the Winter Action Sports (such as ski cross) heat up again in the final week, Team Canada expects to make up ground. The Swiss were a 50/1 longshot to win most golds while Canada was 4/1. Those bets remain alive as we go deep into the final week of play.
For the most part, my focus has been on the top three teams. Team USA because, well, their the home team and winning a Winter Olympic medal count would be a huge breakthrough for the program. Germany and Norway because I have fuutre bets on both those countries to take home most golds. The bigger bet is the even money odds on Germany. The smaller bet, but much bigger payout is the 12/1 shot on the Norwegians. With these three countries bunched up at the top, this has become the most exciting Olmypics for me, well, ever.
Today is going to be a killer day in the race between these three countries, not to mention some chances for the Canadian and Swiss darkhorses on the rail to make a move. There will be a lot of head to head matchups between athletes from these countries going for podium spots in events today.
No more so than in the Combined Nordic Team Event, where all three countries are among the favorites to take gold. It was a little over a week ago when American Johnny Spillane made history, becoming the first ever U.S athlete to medal in a Nordic Combined event when he took a silver in the individual competition. Now, he is back, along with teammates Todd Lodwick, Bill Demong and Matt Dayton, trying to archoestrate a similar breakthrough in the team event. Team USA finished in fourth place in 2002, fell to seventh in 2006 and are coming off a dissapointing World Championship appearance a year ago during which they were disqualified. But, if the results of last week’s individual competition is any indication, the Americans are back and a legit threat today as they finished 2-4-6 in the final standings. For Lodwick, the lure of the podium has kept him skiing competitvely all these years. These could be his last career events and that elusive medal is still out there tantalizing him.
Wouldn’t you know it, but the top three expected conteders in this field are Team USA, Germany and Norway. Between Sports Illustrated and USA Today, they have those countries, albeit in different order, standing on the podium. Perhaps as a result of public momentum from Spillane’s breakthrough a week ago, the Americans are favored in this event today. Per BetUs, the Yanks are -140 to take Gold. They are clear cut favorites with the Austrains at 3.5/1, Germans 4/1 and Norwegians 4.5/1, the next favored bets. Given my future bets with Norway and Germany, this is a perfect event to hedge those bets with a play on Team USA. Anyway, the Nowegians provide an interesting motivational backdrop. Their stud Magnus Moan was the favorite in the individual competition, but came nowehere close to the podium. He is motivated to make up for that failure. The Americans are motivated by making history. It would be an interesting event nonetheless, but throw in the expected swing results in the gold medal count and those future bets, and this becomes must-see TV for me. The ski jumping takes place at 1:30 est, with the cross country ski relay starting at 5.
We could also see some swing results on the Alpine skiiing course today. In the men’s Super-G, Americans Ted Ligety and Bode Miller are among the favorites. Ligety, the only American male to win an Olympic medal four years ago, has been shutout of these games so far. Miller, the skiing goat four years ago, has been the story of the games, picking up three medals, including one gold, in the three events he’s already skiied in Vancouver. The story has been more than just Miller, but of an American ski team bouncing back from an historic low Alpine medal count in 2006 to winning at least one medal so far in every race run in Vancouver. Can those good times continue to roll today?
This is a wdie open field. How wide open? Nobody is better than 5/1 odds to win and there are seven different skiers between 5/1 and 8/1 odds to win. None of them are Bode Miller, who comes in with tasty 10/1 odds to win. Ligety is race chalk at 5/1. The Swiss contigent could ski their way up the gold medal count with Carlo Janka, 6/1 and Didier Cuche, 8/1. Norway’s Askel Lund Svinkal, already a gold medalist at these games, will be by non-American favorite skier in the race. He’s 7/1 to take home gold, and, if he does, will be a major coup for the 12/1 most golds future bet. Austrians Marcel Hirscher and Banjamin Rausch are 6/1 and 7/1 repsectively and Italian Massamilano Blardone at 6/1 round out the expected race contenders. The Giant Slalom is a two-race event. The first run begins at 12:30 est with the second run at 4.
In the other three medal events of the day, the Americans will be hard pressed to meadl and failry lucky if their medal count lead doesnt take hit when its all said and done. In the women’s biathlon relay, beginning at 2pm, there is a strong chance for German gold. Their squad is the -130 favorite to take gold, but they’ll be pushed by a strong Russian team, who at +110 is really a co-favorite with the Germans. France at 5/1 is another contender, along with Sweden, 10/1. The Norwegian team is a longshot 30/1 chance and the Americans dont have a team in the race.
In the grueling 10,000 meter men’s speedskate, the Norwegians have one of the best skaters in the field in Havard Bokko. That’s the good news for my future. The bad news is being one of the better skaters in this field doesnt mean anything unless your name is Sven Kramer. The Dutchmen has been dominant at the distance events for three years running. Bokko might be one of the better skaters in this race, but Kramer is by far the best. So much so that he is -800 to win gold. You have to wager 800 bucks just to win 100. By far, he’s the biggest favorite I’ve seen, based on the odds, during the Olympics to date. Holland’s Bob De Jong is 5/1, Korea’s Seug Hoon Lee is 10/1 and Bokko is 12/1. Chad Hendricks is expected to be the best American in the field, but he’s just 25/1 to skate to gold. Clearly, this is Kramer’s event to lose. The racing begins at 4:00 e.s.t.
Meanwhile in the women’s downhill ski cross, the Canadians might make a move up the medal charts. Local favorites Ashleigh McIvor and Kelsey Serwa are expected to comprise of half of the 4-women final ski. McIvor is the reigning world champ, she’s a Whistler native and has had more than 20 shoulder dislocations during her career. France’s Ophelie David, a 33-year-old who skies for the Hungary National Team way back in the 1994 Olympics is considered the race favorite. She had been the 6-time world champ before McIvor upset her last season.
Of course, there is tons of hockey going on with the opening games of the knockout round beginning later. We’ll have full coverage of the tournament here at the JCB.. For now, the focus today is on the five medal events. As you can see the five teams with the most gold medals all have a chance to finish at the top of the podium in at least one of the events today. It will interesting to see just where the count stands when sun sets on the 12th day of the Vancouver Winter Olympics.
