March Madness for UConn arrives during the final week of February. But, at least they have home court advantage. The Huskies will be fighting for their tournament lives from here on out and this week they have a chance to pick up a pair of critical resume wins at home over Big East brand names. Tonight they host 8th-ranked West Virginia in Hartford in front of the ESPN Big Monday audience. Saturday afternoon they host Louisville. The Huskiers have pulled themselves off the mat with back-to-back wins, including as an impressive a resume win as anyone else will have with a road win at Villanova. But, UConn had lost 8 of 11 prior heading in, so all it did was put the bubble back on its radar. Where do the Huskies stand? Are they in or out? With a home sweep this week, they would vault past a lot of bubble and be at the front and center of the field’s front gate going into the final week of the regular season. But, getting those wins are big if, beginning with tonight’s game against the Mountaineers.
As it stands in the Bracket Matrix as of Monday morning, the Huskies are on the outside looking into the field. They’re sixth-from-last out of the field and have votes from just 8 mock bracketologists. Obviously, their support would surge should they notch a win this evening. If KenPom is any indication, this will be a tight couple of weeks for the Huskies. His numbers call for a loss tonight as UConn has less than a 40-percent chance of winning. As for their three remaining games, he gives them anywhere from a 48- to 60-percent chance of winning. UConn closes the regular season on the road at Notre Dam and at USF. They need to go 3-1 in those games to finish with a .500 makr in Big East play, If they do that, they may have played themselves into the field as long as they notch at least one win in the Big East Tournament. Tonight’s task will be tougher as West Virginia looks to continue its strong start to its stretch drive. Can the Huskies height thwart one of the better offenses in the country? It’s the 17th ranked shooting percentage defense in UConn going up against the 58th scoring offense in the country in West Virginia. Both teams are among the best in the country at crashing the offensive boards, but the Huskies struggle sometimes holding opponents to just one and done. They’ll have to close out on the defensive glass if they want to contain West Virginia tonight.
As for the remainder of the Big East Bubble, the picture is beginning to clear up, but a lot of that portrait could really begin to dry up tonight. Either UConn takes a major leap and becomes the bubble lead dog with a win. Or, they strike out on a critical chance for a home resume win and slip farther behind the pack they’re chasing now. Cincinnati and Seton Hall sit with the Huskies among the final eight teams left out of the Matrix consensus. Should any of these catch fire and jump into the Matrix, the most likely teams to get kicked out of the field would be UAB, as the second CUSA in the Matrix, Charlotte or Ole Miss. Both of those last two teams are coming off home losses in swing games over the weekend. There is always the chance that fellow league members knock each other out as the shakedowns on the Big East Bubble continue through the end. Marquette and Louisville are both in the Matrix, but are no better than a double digit seed, so their respective spots in the actual field are far from secure. And, both teams really seem to be peaking, so to get in the field by swapping spots with them seems a challenging road map. A quick look at the other teams on the Big East Bubble:
Is Louisville in the field if they close with a four game losing streak? What kind of odds would you give me that they will close on a 4-game slide? Here’s the run: Georgetown, at Uconn, at Marquette, Syracuse. I wouldnt make those odds all that steep. Per KenPom, tomorrow night’s game with Georgetown is a big swing game in that regard. His computer formulas give the Cards a 60-percent chance to win that game, but less than 43-percent chance to win any of their other three. Louisville is currently a 10-seed in the Matrix and a unanimous selection. The Cards rejuuvenated their bid chances with a road win in the Dome against the Cuse eight days ago. In 12 days, they might need to repeat that trick, albeit at home, to keep their spot. So, let’s say you think they’re in the field even if they lose out the regular season. Ok, then what if they drop a first round Big East Tournament game. The Cards look good now. Their magic numbers is small. But, they have one of hardest closing schedules of anyone in the country.
Marquette is the only other Big East bubble team that currently sits on the correct side of the bracket. It’s going to be tough to keep Marquette from the field unless they vomit up some bad losses over the final fortnight of the regular season. They are currently an 11-seed in the Matrix and all but three mock bracketologists. Of course, you can never put a road win in this league in the bank. The Eagles play at St. John’s and Seton Hall this week. As long as they can get one of those roadies, they can all but cement themselves in the bracket by sweeping home wins next against Louisville and Notre Dame. That Louisville/Marquette contest next Tuesday looms large is neither team is able to go 2-0 this week.
That leaves Cincy, Seton Hall, USF and UConn left on the Big East bubble. We talked about UConn above, so let’s quickly address the other three squads. The Cincy Bearcats seem cooked. Shackled with an ardouos slate down the stretch, they appear to be wilting in the face of it. They pretty much could have alternated wins and losses and they would have had enough signature Big East wins to get into the field. Instead, they’ve lost four of vie and six of eight to drop below the cutline. They ought to get the good times rolling against last place Depaul on Wednesday. Get that win, and they’re 17-11, 7-8, but close with at West Virginia, Villanova and at Georgetown. Two out of three to close the season would give them two impressive scalps and level their overall Big East mark. That might do it.
Seton Hall looks stronger than anybody really realizes. They’re seventh-from-last out of the field with just 5 mock votes. The Hall can play themselves into much better position by closing the season strong against one of the weaker slates anay of the other Big East teams has to play. Here’s their final 4 games: Rutgers, Marquette, at Rutgers and at Providence. If they can win those first three, they might be playing that finale at Providence with a tournament bid on the line. As for the USF Bulls, they were everyone’s darling about two weeks ago. The bloom is off the rose a bit after losses in three of their last four games, including a 16-point home drubbing at the hands of St. John’s. They likely will add another loss to their docket Wednesday night at Villanova. Then, a final three of Providence, at Depaul and UConn. They might need to sweep those three just to put themselves back into contention for an at-large spot headed into the Big East Tournament. They’re fifth-from-last out of the Matrix with 9 total votes, but expect close to all of that support to evaporate as mocks update throughout the day take into account their home lose to the Johnnies. But, if the Bulls can right the ship, there might be a whole lot of bubble stakes in that season closer against the Huskies.
Obviously, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Georgetown and Pitt are in the field. I think the league will certainly get seven teams into the field. We’ll have to see if any of the other hopefuls can rip of some wins over the next weeks. I wouldnt be shocked to see the league get eight, even nine, bids into the field. And with at least a half dozen Big East bubble teams in contention, there isnt an unimportant game left on the conference slate.
Both the Huskies and Pirates can paly themselves into the field without it coming at the expense of current teams on the Big East Bubble that are in the field. Ditto the Bulls, kinda? Ten teams into the field is a pipe dream, but I would actually bet yer on whether or not they get nine teams in.
