Yesterday was fun at the Olympics. Team USA reasserted its muscles after its first medal-less day. They picked up six medals, including three golds. They re-established a four medal lead over in Germany in the overall medal count and have twice as many medals as any other country in the field. They also have the most Golds again with 5, two ahead of Germany, France and South Korea. How good of a day was it for Team USA yesterday? A luge event was held, the Germans won just one medal and it wasnt Gold. All three American stars Lindsey Vonn, Shani Davis and Shaun White all lived up to their billing with dominant gold medal performances. Here’s hoping there’s a Red, White and Blue encore today.
Now, of course, the Germans falling behind in the gold count harms me. I will turn a profit on the two futures bets to win most golds as long as they do. My other play was Norway. Hey, they finally scratched gold in a cross country event yesterday, but they’re still four back of the top spot and virtually need to max out every possible chance they at Gold to get me that killer 12/1 pay day. I wish I could go back in time and place 4/1 bets on the Americans in both gold and overall medal chases. Oh well. On to today’s events.
VONN GOES FOR DOUBLE GOLD
If Lindsey Vonn were a football or basketball team, there is no way I would bet on her in her next event, which in this case is today in the women’s combined. It a double ski with a downhill this afternoon at 1:30 east and a slalom at 4. Fastest combined time wins. But enough of fancy pants rules, why come you hate on golden girl and say she wont win today? Well, I didnt say she wouldn’t win, just that under normal circumstances she wouldnt be somebody I would bet on today. We talk all the time about football and basketball teams suffering letdowns the next time out after emotional, grueling bigtime wins the game before. It happens all the time. Dont you have to consider Vonn to be in the same boat? And I’m knocking the emotion she showed. Frankly, its what I like about sports and especially the Olympics. But you have to wonder if the edge needed to win an Olympic event will be there today without any real time to come down from the downhill high. To be sure, she’ll refocus, but today would be a day she’d letdown and I wouldnt think any less of her, just like the Saints did after their first loss of the season. They, of course, rebounded and eventually won big. Vonn could still do the same.
Of course, this is the Olympics and maybe she’s riding some destiny. If so, its because of her skill and she aint too shabby in this event. She’s medaled nine times in this event during her world cup career. She had the world championship in her grasp a year ago until she whiffed on one of the final slalom gates. She won this event during the opening meet of the season. The question is can she collect herself and ski her ass off again in the downhill. If she can build a lead like her margin of victory yesterday, she could be double golden. Another thing in her favor is the status of the other top skiers. Marie Reisch skiied terribly yesterday, can she rebound? Ange Parsons had a terrible fall at the bottom of the slope, where is her ming at? For some reason, I cant find any odds on this even anywhere on line, except at pinnacle, which doesnt take American customers and only has head-to-head matchups on the board, not race futures.
ICE HOCKEY IS A PROFIT MACHINE
I really hope one or two of my dozen readers have been playing the chalk in the hockey games the whole way. Several times its been mentioned here at the JCB, but profit will go to chalk eating mo fo’s, at least during round robin play, during the hockey events. The plan: play the favorites, against the goal line, when the US and Canadian women play and the top-6 men’s teams, Canada, USA, Sweden, Russia, Finland and the Czechs. Those clubs covered three out of four games during yesterday’s sessions. They now hold an 8-2 cumulative ATS record during the games. Folks, we’re doing this for your benefit, so start taking advantage of it. Besides, one of the reasons they even play sports is for us to make money on investments, right? But, seriously, what stock out their fancy pants Wall Street guy, would have paid such high dividends in such a short time. Personally, I would take the money and run at this point. It’s hard to improve on an 80-percent success rate. Then again, I still think its likely we get three covers out of four today. Also, today is Last Call for this theory as the Big Boys in the men’s event skate against each other on Sunday and the round robin plays for the women is almost over with USA and Canada having only one game left, one of which is today. Anyway, here the lines: USA -5.5 over Norway; Canada -5.5 over the Swiss and the Russians -2.5 over Slovakia. On the women’s side Team USA is -6.5 over the Lady Finns.
Betting aside, the game against the Norwegians is a critial one for Team USA today. The format for the tournament has changed. After pool play, the rank all the teams 1-12 based on points. Tiebreakers, if not solved vis head-to-head games, are solved by over goal differential. Teams ranked 1-4 get first round byes. Teams 5-12 have to play in the qualification round before advancing into the Final 8. While I think Team USA would cruise to victory in a 5 vs 12, 6 vs 11 game, they have to avoid that round in my opinion. It’s an extra game, which will take away some legs, but the quarterfinals are the following day. Do you really want a 5- or 6-seed American team going up against Finland, Russia or Sweden or somebody with no rest? I dont. Since I think the Canadiens will beat the USA on Sunday in the final game of pool play, it’s going to be hard to finish in the top-3. But, if they are 2-1 with thebest goal differential, they will be in fourth place. I think that could work for them. With everyone having played one game, the Americans sit in a 3-way tie for fourth place with the Czechs and Swedes with a +2 goal differential. They are playing a punching bag today, the lowest seeded team internationally in this field. They need to woodshed the. Go! Do It!
TEAM USA LOOKS FOR DOUBLE MEDALS. AGAIN
Team USA won a pair of medals in three different events. They could very well stage another double event tonight in the womens halfpipe. Americans are expected to flex their muscles in this event with three boards that nobody would really be shocked to see win the gold. Its probably also the sexiest field in the Olympiad. No creeper, of course. Anyway, Kelly Clark is the event favorite at +125, with American compatriots Gretchen Blier at 2/1 and Hannah Teeter at 10/1. Australian Hannah Teeter is the best bet to break up any thoughts of an American sweep. She’s basically a co-favorite to take home gold at +250. Is it possible that China could grab a snowboarding medal? Xuetong Cai, Jiayu Luo and Zhifeng Sung are 12/1, 16/1 and 16/1 to take home gold, but are the next three favored bets after the top four. It’ll be interesting to see if they breakthrough.
HEAVY CHALK FOR CANADIEN SKATER
There could be a lot of north-of-the-border bettors scraping for spare change underneath their couches to pay the Man should their Canadian comrade Christine Nesbitt fail to take home gold tonight in the women’s 1,000 meter speed skate. As has been the case in many events across the Olympic disciplne sepctrum, we have an overwhelming favorite in this event. In this case its the hometown hero Nesbitt. And why not? She’s been killing this event for a couple of years now. She’s the defending World Champion in this event in both overall points and in the penultimate Single Distance Championships to conclude the season. This World Cup season she’s been even more dominant, winning all four races so far on the schedule. Barring some sore of collapse the rest of the season, she be the world champ again. But when its an Olympic year and the games are in your home country, the worlds dont mean a hill of beans. This is the biggest skate of the year and Nesbitt comes in towering over the field. The odds naturally reflect that. She’s 8/15 odds to win at BoDog, 1/2.5 at BetUs and as high as -300 at sportsbook to win this event. Can South Korean Lee Sang-Hwa take down another heavy favorite on the rink? Probably not. Last season she was just 24th in the World Cup standings and this year is 19th. She’s never finished better than 12th place. Her 25/1 odds look good, but are a sucker bet. Instead look for possible upset candidates among Netherlands Annette Gerritson, China’s Beixing Wang or Japan’s Nao Kodaira. Gerritson has been the closest runner up in any event this season to Nesbitt and is 4/1. Wang won bronze Tuesday in the 500 and her personal best this season is the second fastest to Nesbitt’s PB. She’s 9/1. Kodaira is the one of three to have multiple medals this season at this event, along with Nesbitt and Gerritson, and her PB is the fourth fastest on tour this season with another Nesbitt time in third. She’s 16/1. Interesting. Canada’s Kristen Groves is also 16/1 As for the American entrants, Eli Ochiwicz is 66/1 and Jennifer Rodriguez, 2002 gold medalist and 2004 world champ, is 80/1.
CAN BURKE BREAKTHROUGH IN BIATHLON?
Four days ago, American Johnny Spillane captured Team USA’s first ever Nordic Combined medal. Can Tim Burke do the same in biathlon today when they ski off of the 20K event? This is the event he made waves in back in the world cup season opener in Sweden when he finished in second place. But, he finished in 29th place in the last 20K race before the Olympics less than four weeks ago, so who knows how he’ll really stand up against the field. He finished in 47th place in Saturday’s 10K race, but none of the favorites really performed well as ever changing in race weather conditions really wrecked the field creating a topsy turvy race. A longer distance, plus consistent conditions, should favor the chalk, so there will be a big burden for Burke to keep pace. If he falls short of the medal stand expect two Austrians, two Swedes, a Ukranian and a German to win the combined six medal given out in the men’s 20K and women’s 20K biathlon today.
GERMANS MAKE UP GROUND ON SLEDS
The skeleton events begin today with the men’s and women’s events both holding their first and second of four total runs. The Germans could make up some medal ground here. SI picks Frank Rommel to take home the silver, and he’s a 7/1 shot to win gold. But, he’s hardly even a sure thing to make the podium. Latvian brothers Martins and Thomas Dukurs are the betting favorites at +150 and +175 respectively. Canadian Jon Montgomery is +250. On the women’s side, the Germans could rake medals with Anja Huber, Kerstin Szmykowiak and Marion Trott at +350, +600 and +250 to win gold. Their odds are just behind race favorite Melissa Hollingsworth-Richards of Canada at +150. If those lines are any indication, this race comes down to can the Canadien use home track advantage to prevent a German sweep.
Oh, and the men’s figure skating finals are tonight. American Evan Leyscek is in second place and looks strong to medal. All in all, it will be another fascinating day of winter sports. Cheers.
