The race is on for the Big 10 title. With Ohio State’s beatdown of Indiana last night, we officially have a five-team race with 3.5 weeks remaining. Big 10 fans, get ready for some February Madness as the most exciting and high end league race in years plays out. Here’s hoping the decisive game in this pursuit is both a classic and broadcast on the BTN or CBS with Gus Johnson on the call.
The lone conference game tonight, Michigan at Minnesota (Minny -8.5) wont impact that chase. But it serves as an important Bubble game for the host Gophers. It’s also a chance to see what kind of game the Gophers currently have. They might not be in the Big 10 race, but with home games at the Barn remaining against Wisconsin and Purdue, the Gophers will have as important say as any non-title contender will have on this race. The Gophers have plenty of chances to boost their resume and NCAA hopes with those scalps out there and, in the process, swing the Big 10 race. The Gophers arent getting any love right now in the Bracket Matrix. They’re getting just 4 of 60 possible votes from the mocks. Should they win tonight and on the road Sunday at Northwestern, it probably wont move them that far up the ladder. But, it will position themselves to make a major move should they get big ticket wins at home later this season against Purdue and Wisconsin. Those are must wins, but they wont make a difference if they dont take care of business against the likes of the Wolverines and Wildcats this week. Tonight is an important game for Tubby’s crew.
Michigan is not a factor in any of this. They can play spoiler down the stretch, and if they do that enough, they might be able to jump into the NIT field. Their season has underachieved so much that mock NIT bracketologists aren’t even including them yet. They have the look of a CBI Tournament team, which isnt exactly what people had hoped for after last year’s Round of 32 finish. As for winning in The Barn tonight, who knows? If Good Michigan shows up, they have the defense to stay in the game. But, they have been flat worked their last two games. After covering the spread in 10 of 12 games, they’ve failed miserably in that department their last two starts. They won on this court a year ago, in a critical game to earn themselves a tournament berth. Laval Lucas Perry played in the starring role. But, you have to wonder if they will play with the fire and urgency that Minnesota, who needs this win to keep their own Tournament ship sailing, ought to bring. Bottomline: my confidence in this team is shot., and I have no idea what’s going to happen tonight. The great question and answer between UM Hoops and From The Barn didnt help me in determining a point spread winner tonight. But, it’s still required reading if you want to truly follow along this evening.
BIG EAST BUBBLE
Lousiville and Notre Dame take to the road and almost have to notch victories tonight to keep their tournament hopes alive to a certain extend. The Cards travel to the Big Apple to take on tougher-than-it-looks St. John’s squad. The Johnnies are still in the hunt for a postseason berth somewhere after a strong non conference season. They’ve been darn near swallowed whole in Big East play, but they were good enough at home last weekend to open a big lead against West Virginia before losing. They could give an inconsistent Louisville team fits tonight. Meanwhile, maybe it’s Global Warming, but those Pitino rumors, that start every spring, are making an earlier-than-usual appearance this year. The Cards really need to take care of business in this one. They’ve been hanging on by a thread to their spot in the Bracket Matrix field for weeks. Today, they’re an 12-seed on 43 of 60 total mock brackets. But, a road loss to the Johnnies would see their support and wane and put a lot more pressure on Louisville during the finall three weeks of the season.
Notre Dame travels to New Jersey to take on the Seton Hal Pirates. The Irish got a big home win last weekend by holding off the hard charging USF Bulls. The win didnt do too much to boost their standing among the mock bracket crowd. They do have 5 mock votes. The good news is that its one more vote than UConn is getting right now. The bad news is that there are three other Big East teams who are receiving more votes than the Irish who arent even in the Bracket Matrix themselves. Translation: The Irish have a ton of work to do. They cant afford too many more losses and still expect an at large bid. A road loss tonight darn near puts them in a ‘win out’ predicament in order to harbor legit at large hopes.
EGG BOWL, BASKETBALL JONES STYLE
The Egg Bowl takes place on the hardwood tonight as the Mississippi SEC rivals hook up. The MSU Bulldogs sit on the outside looking in, with just 7 total mock votes in the Matrix. That makes them the seventh-to-last team out of the field. The Rebels appear safe. For now. They are a 9-seed with 59 of 60 votes. It would take a losing streak of some proportion to cut them down any time soon. But, a loss here makes it a season sweep at the hands of the Bulldogs. You have to think Ole Miss would lose some support directly to MSU if the Bulldogs can defend home court tonight. And, it puts a ton of pressure on them to defend their own home court in their next two games against Vandy and Florida. If Ole Miss goes 1-2 in their next three games it would be interesting to see what their position on the Matrix would be heading into the final two weeks of the regular season.
DOES ANYONE IN THE PAC 10 WANT TO MAKE THE TOURNAMENT, PLEASE?
In the beleaguered Pac 10, first place is on the line AGAIN when Washington visits Cal. Of course, when six teams are separated by just one game in the standings, it seems like every contest has some share of first place on the line. Unlike the Big 10′s muddled race for their league title involving Sweet 16 or better teams, the Pac 10 race is mostly built on teams still more fit for the NIT than anything else. Cal is the only team from the league in the Matrix right now, resting on the 10-line with 58 mock votes. Washington has been creeping up the charts for weeks and now sits fourth-from-last-out with a dozen votes. Just 10 of 60 mock bracketologists have put 2 pac 10 teams in the field. It’s a pivotal weekend for the Huskies, beginning this evening. A road win by the Huskies solidifes their bid candidacy and will sap a bunch of support from Cal. A home win by the Bears makes it even more likely that the Pac 10 is heding towards just one bid.
In other Pac 10 action tonight, Arizona and Arizona State host the Oregon schools this week. Neither club is getting any support, but both remain in the league title hunt. Should either win the regular season, you have to think that would be enough for an at large big. Anything short of a 2-0 weekend by either of them, however, really cuts them hard. Wassau is in LA tonight taking on the Trojans. A win puts the Cougars back a level par and perhaps a winning streak away from a big. They’d probably need to win out to get to 10-6 in Pac 10 play before they could ask for an at large bid with a straight face however.
THE WEST COAST CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR SHOWDOWN
When the Zags and St. Mary hook up tonight, its a battle between a 5-seed and 10-seed in the current Bracket Matrix. That almost sounds like a first round game. Regardless, it’s a battle for first place in the WCC. The world has been warned, but the Zags are getting big again. Meanwhile, the Gaels are a 10-seed with 51 of 60 mock bracket votes. But, what happens in they lose this game, drop another down the stretch (at Portland will be more than tricky) and then showoff their ability again to lose to Gonzaga in the WCC Sectional? I dont know if a team seeded 10th right now and coming from a mid-major league, can absord three losses and still expect an an at large bid. There will be some anxious moment during selection weekend. Snag a road win at Gonzaga tonight, though, and that bid may be even more cemented.
Picks? Picks!
Washington +8.5 at Cal, 1 Unit……the one and only pick of the night. I mean, there are plenty of games on the board, but after a 2-3 night, I am going conservative this evening. I cant possibly touch the Michigan game. After I crowed last week about my two favorite teams, UM and IU, were at least making me money, they’ve cratered on an 0-4 ATS trend. My rule? Never bet on a team if you’ve bet on them in their last two games and they lost for you. Third time is not a charm because in the gambling world nothing is really ever due. So, we’re taking one of the late tips on the west coast. I love the UW has been playing. They wont get run off the court. An 8.5-point head start seems like a gift in this one. Book It!
