I wont do a Bubble News post tonight. Nor will I focus on specific leagues like I have the last couple of days. Today, just a down and dirty picks posts. Dont worry. None of these are touted as 50-star Games of the Year. That’s not what we do at the JCB. But, we’re on five games tonight, looking to keep the roll going. We went 4-0 last night and are a cool 48-33-3 this season in selecting college hoops games. If this is the first time you’ve checked in, well where have you been? You’re missing some good times. The bandwagon is full, so we’ll blame you if it crashes and burns this evening. No pressure, though.
If you must track the bubble, the two most intriguing games are the ones that are part of ESPN’s doubleheader this evening when UConn travels to Syracuse and Duke takes on UNC. The Heels and Huskies, two Final Four teams a year ago, seem destined for a NIT collision course if the teams cant reverse fortunes. And they have tough tough tasks tonight, trying make their bubble claim against top-10 foes. But, we’re not picking either of those games. In 10 years, I dont think I’ve ever won a bet on a UNC/Duke game. I always get that game wrong. If you’re interested, I lean towards the home dog UNC catching six points. Translation: Lay the chalk with the Dukies, Babby!!
Here is what I do like:
Indiana +10 vs Ohio State, 6:30, BTN 1 Unit……..Last night’s games which saw road teams Illinois and Purdue spring upsets over Wisconsin and Michigan State will have a profound impact on the Big 10 title chase the rest of the way. Tonight, Ohio State gets their chance to jump into the first place tie with a road win over Indiana in Bloomington. The Buckeyes hammered Indiana, 79-54, in Columbus five weeks ago, so this will be an easy OSU win, right? Not so fast my friend. This game is in Bloomington where the Tom Crean’s boys are a much different team. Sure, they’re only 2-3 at home in the Big 10, but they’ve covered the spread in four of those five contests. All of the covers came as underdogs pretty much at or around the number oddsmakers have thrown on the board in this contest. They beat Michigan and Minnesota and lost by 6 to Illinois and 3 to Purdue. They controlled the action and were, frankly the better team, during long stretches of most of those games. For the purpose of this pick, please ignore the Hoosiers stinker against Iowa. Other than thay, they’ve been an extremely tough out at home in Big 10 play. No doubt, Indiana’s 3-7 Big 10 mark would be better had they not lost Maurice Creek to a knee injury on the eve of the conference season. But, Christian Watford has evolved into a legit Big 10 freshmen-of-the-year candidate and sophomore guard Verdell Jones has paced the offense with a streak of 20-point games and one of the top scorers in the league during conference games. They still have a lot more options than they did last year. They also are still a year away from winning more than they lose. But, they’ll continue playing well tonight at Assembly Hall and keep this game closer than the experts think. If Illinois and Purdue needed everything in their bag to get a road win over IU, then there’s no reason to think a similar effort wont be required out the Buckeyes tonight.
Northwestern -2 at Iowa, 8:30, BTN 1 Unit………Northwestern travels to Iowa to take on the Hakweyes and try to make amends for one of the worst losses they had last season. The Wildcats were arguably one win short of making the final field last season and losing to Iowa remained a stigma on their resume the whole way. A loss to an even worse Iowa team might be a death knell for the Cats this go around. I remain firm in the belief that if the Cats can finish at .500 in league play and get a win in the BTT that they will ease into the tournament with one of the last bids. They might need a 10-8 regular season league mark, what do I really know anyway. I do know that getting to level par or beyond in Big 10 play becomes all the more harder if they cant tuck a winnable road game this evening. This is one of the scariest games remaining on Northwestern’s schedule because it comes with a lot of expectations to win and set up a bigtime bubble showdown at home on Sunday against Minnesota. I know Iowa has played better in Big 10 play than they did in November and December, but I think Northwestern is up to challenge and meets those expectations tonight. Their hot shooting continues and they beat Iowa by 7 points.
South Carolina -1 vs Florida, 8:00, ESPN Full Court 1 Unit……..When South Carolina and Florida hook up on the basketball court, expect a close game. Among to doozies they’ve played in recent seasons include Florida’s win last month on a buzzer beater. I think South Carolina gets a measure of revenge tonight on their home floor. These teams were dead even in Gainesville last month. Look for the same this evening, but with the home court adrenaline, its the Gamecocks this time that make the winning plays in the end.
Georgia +4.5 at Auburn, 9:00, ESPN Full Court 1 Unit…….I think we may have found something with the Georgia Bulldogs. They covered as underdogs on back to back Saturdays for me at South Carolina and at home vs Vanderbilt. The latter contest was an outright upset win. From a tempo-free standpoint, this is one of the most improved teams in the nation. They were -.18 last year in efficiency margin, but are basically at level par in SEC games this season. They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games, including an upset home win over Tennessee and road covers/single digit losses at Kentucky and Mississippi State. They also own wins over Georgia Tech and Illinois during this stretch. Do I trust them away from Athens? Not really. But they’re playing Auburn tonight, maybe the second worst team in the league. Neither team plays great defense, but the Bulldogs shoot the ball better than Auburn does. That will be the differnce tonight. I’ll risk a little with UGA and hope that maybe we’ve stumbled onto a moneymaker. If they play like they have since mid-December, we wont need the 4-point head start.
Virginia Tech +1 at NC State, 9:00, ESPNU 1 Unit…….If you are a little respected basketball program like Virginia Tech, you need to be able to go on the road and beat the last place team in the league if you want to move from the bubble and into the field of 65 come March. The Hokies fell flat 10 days ago at Miami in a similar challenge, but I think they get it done tonight in Raleigh. I just dont like the way NC State has been playing. And, I’ve always been an unofficial Hokie Homer. The head-to-head series has favored NC State since they began sharing the same conference, but I think the Hokies avoid that deja-vu feeling this evening. I think Tech plays great defense and with Malcolm Delaney is the starring role, they’ll have just enough offense to get it done tonight. They’re slight dogs tonight. That’s good news considering the Hokies are 13-6 ATS as a road dog and 17-8 overall as an underdog on any court. The Pack, meanwhile, are a money burning 16-33-3 ATS as chalk. Here’s hoping those trends continue for at least one more night.
Indiana, Northwestern, South Carolin, Georgia and Virginia Tech. A five-pack. Do it kids. Go. Now.
