For the first time in more than a month, more than four Big 10 teams are included in the comprehensive Batrix Matrix. The timing couldnt be more convenient. Tonight, four of these teams go head to head in a doublheader that could prove to be the biggest swing night in the chase for the Big 10 regular season crown.
Illinois, fresh of signature win over Michigan State over the weekend, is the league’s new addition to the Matrix. The Illini check into the Matrix as a 12-seed with 29 of 58 mocks placing them in the field. As it should on the heels of such a resume win, the Illini’s numbers are trending higher among the more recently updated mocks. Of the 48 ballots cast since the win over the Spartans, the Illini received 28 votes. That’s just under 60 percent support, compared to the 50-percent support the Illini receive when the entire Matrix is taken into account. The Illini join the four power teams in the conference within the Matrix field: Purdue is a #2, Michigan State and Wisconsin are #3s and Ohio State is a #4.
Northwestern and Minnesota remain lurking well outside the field, with each club neeting just 4 votes apiece from the mock crowd. The good news is all but one of those votes have come from the crop of most recently updated brackets. Neither team is getting a lot of support, but they remain on people’s radar. I think the league can get at least six bids into the field, but one of these clubs has to start streaking some wins together. Northwestern fans dont need to worry about their lowly RPI ranking. If KenPom is indeed a worthy projection metric, then expect the Cats to get it done. Pomeroy favors Northwestern in six of their seven final games, predicting NW to finish with a 21-10, 9-9 record. I think that gets them into the field as long as they dont go one-and-done in the Big 10 Tournament. Pomeroy paints a nice closing picture for the Gophers as well. If those projections hold true to form, the Gophers 19-11, 10-8 mark would probably put them in the same boat as Northwestern: Dont flame out early in the BTT and make the NCAAs. Clearly, one of the storylines the rest of the way will be can the Gophers and Wildcats meet, or even exceed, these projections and get a March Madness invite.
Of course, the primary storyline tonight is a suddenly hot league title race that includes almost half of the conference. Not only are the Illini the fifth Big 10 in the Bracket Matrix, but their win over the Spartans redefined the Big 10 race, making it a five-team race to the finish. Eight days ago, MSU was sitting pretty with a 9-0 record, three games up on their closest chaser. After consecutive losses, MSU remains in the lead, but now a total a five teams are separated by a mere 1.5 games. MSU, 9-2, has a game lead over Illinois, Wisconsin and Ohio State, all at 8-3 in league play. Purdue is in fifth place at 7-3. Ironically, Purdue is the last dog in this chase, even though they’re currently the highest seeded league team in the Bracket Matrix. Not coincidentally, these are the only five teams in the Big 10 conference with a positive efficiency margin.
The title chase is on. The contenders get to punch each other in the mouths tonight when Illinois travels to Wisconsin and Purdue visits Michigan State. It’s not hard to see what certain results could do to the chase. An MSU win re-establishes the Spartans as the front runner and pushes Purdue back to chase mode as quickly as the last week’s events made them contenders again. A Purdue win could forge a three-way between MSU, the Illinoi/Wisco winner and Ohio State, provided the Buckeyes can escape Bloomington with a win over IU tomorrow night. Purdue would just be a half-game out with a game in hand. We could have a 4-team dead heat with less than a month to go. Expect high drama tonight in Big 10 land.
Illinois at Wisconsin, 7:00, BTN. Lines, Wisco -9.5, O/U 125
The Wisconsin machine continues to churn forward despite who is or is not in their lineup. They’ve played without their top scorer and rebounder for almost a month now and remain in the hunt for the Big 10 title. Bo Ryan knows winning. Jon Leuer’s wrist injury is on the mend and the Badgers hope to have him back in time for March. They havent skipped any beats in his absence. Travan Hughes has become a Big 10 MVP candidate. Expected role players have rotated taking turns stepping up with a big performance. On Saturday, sharpshooter Jason Bohannan, whose shooting streak had taken a vacation for much of January, finallly got in on the act with 18 points and four bombs from behind the arc against Michigan. The team’s performance over the weekend, especially Bohannan’s play, has one Badger Blogger, who predicted defeat in Ann Arbor, to eat crow with salt and pepper. I hear ya, man. The JCB had the Wolverines in that one as well. I should have just started a fire with my money instead.
Folks in the Illinois camp are celebrating not only the great MSU win, but their return back into the Bracket Matrix. But, will the celebration be shortlived? A trip to Madison to play the Badgers looms tonight. The Kohl Center is where opposing offenses go to die. You can look at tonight’s game in two different ways from an Illini perspective. If they want to make a legit claim to the Big 10 title, tonight is a must-win.
Viewing from the prism of just making the tournament field–and really isnt that what any Matrix 12-seed should be doing in mid-February–tonight’s game would be a killer win, but it wouldn’t really wound the Illini’s chances if they lose in Madison. After the MSU win, they’re really playing with house money tonight. Indeeed, the must win game against the Badgers is the season finale next month in Champagne. The Illini have a hard schedule to close the season. Let’s assume road losses tonight in Madison and later at Purdue and at Ohio State. The Illini will be in great shape if they hold serve at home in future games when Minnesota, Ohio State and Wisconsin come to town. That leaves the road contest next week in Ann Arbor. Basically, if Illinois gets all their home game and somehow grabs one road win, they ought to be a lock for the field. They will be 20-11, 12-6. How does a Big 10 team with 12 wins get excluded? They wont. I feel like they could come in a game, maybe two, worse and still get in as long as they dont flame out early in the BTT. Bottomline: The Illini’s road map into the field does not require a win tonight in Madison.
Purdue at Michigan State, 9:00, ESPN. Lines, MSU -2.5, O/U 138.5
Michigan State has gone from lapping the field in the Big 10 race to the middle of a 5-team sprint to the finish in a one-week span. Some of it was lady luck reversing course. MSU finally dropped a couple close games to start February on the road after pulling out last second road wins last month. Some of it was also having to play in a hostile road enivrnoment without their Mr.C lutch, Kailon Lucas. After spraining his ankle last week against Wisconsin, he sat out the Illini game. It proved costly for MSU as replacements at the point Chris Allen and especially Korie Lucious really struggled running the offense. Will they be any better in front of a home crowd? More importantly, what’s Lucas status tonight? Even at the Breslin Center, the Spartans will be hard pressed to beat Purdue without Lucas.
It seemed like yesterday they were the Baby Boilers. Now the kids are grown up upperclassmen and a road win at MSU away from seizing control of the Big 10 race. They host MSU later this month, so a win on the road sets up the possibility of a sweep. I dont they lose more than two games the rest of the way. A win today might shrink that guess to just one game. If Purdue wins tonight, I dont think anyone will finish ahead of them in the league standings. Purdue has a chance to go from fifth place to first place by the end of the night.
Picks? Picks!
I suppose now is the time to stop bloviating on these games and link dumping you to death and actually make some picks on tonight’s action. We pulled a 4-2 record yesterday, thanks to the heroic efforts of Villanova and New Mexico State. The record stands at 44-33-2 for the season. I thing I dont do is invest in heavy chalk. I look for underdogs that I think can and should win and short home favorites. Very rarely will I lay a lot of points with a favorite. That’s one reason why I am passing on the Wisconsin Badgers tonight. I consider needing a team to win by at least double digits to be heavy chalk. But, I wont be taking the Illini either because betting against the Badgers in the Kohl Center is no way to earn a consisten profit either. With that sermon out of the way, here are tonight’s picks:
Illinois/Wisco Under 125, 1 Unit…..well if offenses really do die at the Kohl Center, then taking a stab at the under isnt that bad of an idea. Pace will be key in this game. By a wide margin, the Badgers play the slowest games in the Big 10, while the Illini are one of the fastest. You know what’s happening here, right? I’m pretty sure Bo Ryan will make his kids run windsprints in shorts outside in the Wisconsin winter if they take any shots with more than 5 seconds on the shot clock. I dont think either team makes it into the 60s this evening.
Vandy -3 over Tennessee, 1 Unit…..Dores have one of the best home court edges in the land. Vols want revenge after losing at home to Vandy by 10 last month. They wont get it. Vandy’s offense rolls them up again.
George Mason +4 over VCU, 1 Unit…..I’ll take the home dog in this CAA showdown. The storyline here is the CAA has 5-6 teams that could win a game in the NCAA Tournament. These are two of them. The goal the rest of the way is to somehow finish in the top-2 of the league so as not to play a fellow contender in the CAA quarterfinals. Right now, both clubs are chasing Northwestern and ODU in that pursuit.
Purdue +2.5 over Michigan State, 1 Unit…….I said in the preseason that Purdue was my pick to win the Big 10. Money meet mouth. If Lucas cant go at 100 percent, I think MSU will have more problems than you think in this one. Even with Lucas, I think this Purdue team plays with more chemistry and has more options at their disposal. I think we see the road upset, but I’ll take those 2.5 and put them in my pocket in case I need them.
Cheers!
I always love the under on Big Ten games. I was tracking it for a while and the under was coming through about 75% of the time (except in games involving Purdue). Do you have a resource to check that for the season? I was just blindly taking Big Ten home teams ATS and unders and had an incredible winning percentage for a while.
I always love the under on Big Ten games. I was tracking it for a while and the under was coming through about 75% of the time (except in games involving Purdue). Do you have a resource to check that for the season? I was just blindly taking Big Ten home teams ATS and unders and had an incredible winning percentage for a while.