Discussing the state of the Big 12 Bubble is easy. Mostly because there is no Big 12 Bubble. They have seven teams in the Bracket Matrix. All are relatively secure with most unanimous selections and none getting less than 53 of 55 votes. Kansas is a unanimous #1 seed. Kansas State and Texas are both on the 3-line. After those three, Baylor is a 6, Missouri a 7, Texas A/M an 8 and Oklahoma State a 9.
Oklahoma and Texas Tech would be the only two clubs out there capable of jumping up and onto the bubble to push for more league teams. Both got bigtime wins this weekend defending home court and running Texas and Oklahoma State off the floor. Both wont continue that trend. Conveniently, the clubs play each Tuesday night in Norman with the winner having the inside track to spending the rest of the year in legit bubble talk. Both have enough possible resume wins on their schedule to get it done.
The rest of the league’s focus is on seed position in the NCAA and Big 12 tournaments. In the latter, all will be behind Kansas who at 9-0 has opened a three game lead on the field. The obvious storyline tonight is a marquee game tarnished by the recent play of one of the combatants. Three weeks ago this looked like a game that would decide the Big 12 race and maybe even be between the top two teams in the rankings. But, the Horns have been free falling, losing four of six since elevating to the top ranking in the nation. Kansas fans aren’t even bemused that Texas has sapped the fun out of this top billed game.
So, yeah, what in the heck has happened to Texas? There’s a lot to diagnose. Some have taken the psychiatrist route, claiming its all the Horns head and they’re not having enough fun out on the court. The three weeks have been an unmitigated disaster, highlighted sy Saturday’s low effort performance agains the Sooners, in a game marked by wasted UT possessions and bricks from the free throw line where the Horns went 10-for-27. Any chance oddsmakers are still feeling generous with prop bets? If so take the Over on missed UT freebies tonight. Book It.
There was so much Texaas Fail in Saturday’s game that its hard begin laying blame because there is so much to go around. According to BON, some of the first fingers should be pointed at Coach Rick Barnes for not having a semblance of a game plan going into such a big rivalry game. Offensively, the Horns have been challenged of late. While they remain near the top of the statistical standings of the Big 12 in Efficiency Margin and points per possession, those numbers are trending downward. In their three Big 12 losses during this 2-4 stretch, the Horns have scored less than a point per possession. By Big 12 standards, those arent even average offensive numbers, they’re terrible.
Despite their flaws, the Horns remain a dangerous out for the Jawhawks tonight. It’s not a traditional rivalry for either school, but its evolved into a dozy of a matchup the last decade. The Jawhawks are on a mission to win every Big 12 game. The rest of the title chasers desperately need the Horns to win in hopes of brining the Jawhawks somehow back to the pack. Hey, a week ago, it looked like Michigan State would run away with the Big 10, but now they have four teams just a game behind them. Big 12 contenders are hoping a similar situation can manifest itself with KU. Can Kansas put a tighter death grip on the Big 12? Can Texas find the tonic for the ills of late and get out of the mid-winter funk? Which future first round draft picks will impress ? We’ll get some answers tonight.
Monday is typically a slow night for college basketball outside of the Big East/Big 12 Big Monday doubleheaders. But, there’s two midmajor games worth keeping an eye on. The first is a showdown in the MAAC where top dog Siena hosts Fairfield (7:00, ESPN Full Court, Siena -13), one of the two teams tied for second place. Siena is like Kansas, however, as they’re three games ahead of their closest competitors and at 13-0 in MAAC play they’re intent on running the table. The MAAC wont get two bids into the tournament. But if the Saints win out in the regular season, a feat that would also include a road win at Butler over Bracket Buster weekend, then there’s a strong chance they would get an at large invite should some shenanigans occur and they get eliminated in the MACC Sectional next month. If the Saints lose a couple between now and the close of the regular season, then it will be a winner-take-all MACC tournament. Expect the Saints best effort tonight. It’s their last home game until the regular season finale on the last day of February.
The other mid-major game worth noting tonight is being played in the WAC when Louisiana Tech travels to Los Cruces to play the New Mexico State Aggies (9:00, ESPNU. NMSU -1). You know back in days of yore, the ESPN Big Monday used to be a tripleheader with a late night WAC or Big West game tipping off after the Sportscenter break. The Bulldogs and Aggies are tied for second place, just a half game behind first place and league bigwig Utah State. That means the winner tonight pulls into a dead heat with USU. The WAC probably wont get more than one bid into the league, but key position in the WAC Sectional is on the line tonight. It’s a chance to scout two of the possible contenders with about as much regular season stack on the table as possible.
We have two games tonight that will directly impact first place. And we have two games where a talented team in pursuit is trying to knock the favorite from the ranks of their league’s unbeaten. Two are in BCS leagues. Two are in mid-majors. All are on TV. And you thought there would be no sports to watch with football season ending? Sill you.
(Blog Note: Check back in later. We’ll have a post with some picks for tonight)
