[tip]I will be occasionally commenting on the games I’m watching over at my new Twitter page. Updates can be seen in the right side bar on JCB as well.[/tip] An interesting doubleheader in the Atlantic 10 marks the afternoon in college hoops on this first Saturday of February. It’s going to be an interesting six weeks for the league. Expect them to be the center of a lot of bubble arguments. This is a league that hasnt had more than three bids and has been stuck with two invites in three of the last four years. This year? Record attendance, maybe. As of today, six A 10 teams are in the Bracket Matrix. Usual suspects Temple and Xavier are 4 and 7 seeds respetively. But four of their brethern–Rhode Island, Charlotte, Richmond and Dayton–have also settled into the Matrix trending out somewhere in double digit seed territory. Expect a lot of scrutiny for these teams as I dont think we can say any of them are close to a good bet to make the field. The next six weeks could be boom or bust for the league. Today we get some critical evidence that may tell us which direction this is going.
Xavier at Dayton, noon, ESPN2. Lines, DU -3, O/u 135
The tables have really turned between these Ohio rivals since they played three weeks ago. Back on those days of yore, Dayton was riding high, winners of 11 and 12, seemingly cruising towards the postseason. Xavier had unexpectedly experienced turblence during November and December, but had at least finally put back to back wins together. Xavier beat Dayton that day and off have charged to an 8-1 A10 start. It’s not like the Flyers have struggled, but they have lost two of their last four games following the loss to the Musketeers. And that’s been enough to bump them from a January comfort zone to a shaky February perch. The Flyers are a mere 12-seed in the Matrix, basically the last team in the consensus field. They’re receiving 35 of 55 possible votes. If they lose this, they fall to .500 in conference play. They probably cant afford too many more regular season losses and expect an at-large bid. Xavier is secure, barring collapse. They need a win to keep their lead dog status is an amazing chase for the league title with five teams between 8-1 and 6-2.
Temple at Richmond, 2:00, ESPN2. Richmond -1, O/U 114
The same stakes kind of exist in this one. Conference title contender with a safe grip on a bid into the field on the road against a Bubble team, clinging to the field. Temple sit as a 4-seed. They’re the only league team to beat Xavier in league play and the only team anywhere to have beaten Villanova. The Richmond Spiders are sharing the 12-line with A10 mate Dayton, but have four more votes than the Flyers with 39 total. They are trying to make the dance for the first time since John Beilein was their coach and the Colonial Athletic Association was their conference. They have excellent OOC wins over Old Dominion and at Mississippi State and Florida. And, at 6-2 in league play, havent really bogged down since. How far will the A10 bubble be able to stretch? The Spiders still have road games against URI, Dayton and Xavier. A loss today might set them up for as many a four lossess in the next five weeks. I dont think that bubble will reach that far.
As for the two other A10 teams currently in contention, they too play during this early window. Both are heavy chalk with Rhode Island laying 14.5 points at home to UMass and Charlotte laying 14 points in their own right, but on the road against Fordham. If either lose, they will fall out of next week’s Matrix. Book It.
As for the rest of the early afternoon, the teams to keep an eye on are Marquette and Virginia, two bubble teams that are making a serious move up the charts. Oh, and there is this little thing going on between top-10 teams and hated rivals Villanova and Georgetown that tips at noon. Bigtime hoops in Phily. That’s as good as it gets. But, we focus more on the bubble, than on the top on the bracket in these columns. In this post, we’re focusing on the other games in the noon through early afternoon window. And, of course, we have picks on some of those games at the bottom of the page. Two more posts are planned today. One will be devoted to the insane windown of 4 pm tips. I would need three times as many TVs as I can possibly get going right now just to watch all the action during those two hours. It needs its own post. ETA for a post is a little past noon. Or middle next week. Another post will follow on all games beginning tonight. Both posts will have picks. That will force you to come back, amirite?!?! Anyway, onto the rest of the early day’s bubble setup.
Marquette at Providence, noon, ESPN Full Court. Lines, Marq -3, O/U 158
Marquette doesnt have a great record. Nor are they anywhere close to contending for the Big East title. But, KenPom projects them to win the remainder of their games this season. It would give them 20 wins. It would put them into the NCAA Tournament, an amazing achievement during a season when they’re replacing the killer guard trio of James, McNeil, and Matthews. The mocks are beginning to pay attention to this possible development. The Eagles are in 18 brackets. While thats not much, it still puts them second to last cut from the consensus Bracket Matrix. Marquette has lost a total of eight games this season, but by just a combined 25 points. They’ve really been one of the best performing teams in the nation, regardless of metric used. They’re in the top 15 percent in both scoring offense and scoring defense. They’re ranked 17th in KenPom’s rating. They’re 14-6-1 against the spread. Earlier in the week, the avenged their one bad loss of the season by thumping Depaul and moving to within a game a fourth place. That’s Big East Tournament double bye territory. They arent contenders for the regular season crown, but they are when the league moves to MSG for its postseason sectional. Providence has moved from possible bubble team to spoiler at best. If they pull enough spoilers off they could get back in contention. Like previous Friar outfits, they love getting up and down the floor. Marquette has the offense to run with them. This could be the highest scoring game of the afternoon.
Wake Forest at Virginia, noon, ESPN Full Court. UVA -3 O/U 134
What Dave Leiato Era? Tony Bennett and the Cavs are determined to not only stay in contention for an tournament bid, but also hang around in the ACC title chase. The mock bracketlogists are drawing a hard line with the Cavs, however. Only five mocks have them in their field, despite a week during which they moved to 5-2 in ACC play with wins at North Carolina and at home over NC State. It almost looks like an oversight, if only because they were one of the more impressive bubble teams of the last week. If they take care of business at home against Wake, I think their support may skyrocket all the way to the cusp of the field, if not beyond. Here’s the quick book on the Cavs. They play a ton of guys. Have balanced scoring, yet also have a clear cut go-to guy. They can be accurate from behind the arc. They’re a bit smallish up front, but they’re 11-2 at home and they’ve run a lot of folks off the JPJ Floor this season. Virginia is closer to the field than you would think. They have a tough schedule down the stretch and if they can manage a split the rest of the way, they will be in the field. They already have wins in the last five weeks over UAB, Georgia Tech, and at UNC and at NC State. If they win today gainst Wake and four more times the rest of the way–which would likely yield no less than three more resume wins, not many bubble teams can match the quality of wins the Cavs may have over the final 10 weeks of the season. Wake’s position seems secure, holding down a consensus 6-seed right now. They’re looking to sweep the Wahoos and knock them farther away from the elusive bubble. Wake ought to be one of the 7-8 teams that make it from the ACC unless they go on a long losing streak between now and the end of the season. Also of note: both teams have double digit road wins at UNC so far in league season. Interesting.
Mississippi State at Florida, 1:30, ESPN Full Court. Lines, Fla -2.5, O/U 135
Both teams are 10 games above .500 in a much improved and well regarded than a year ago SEC. So, this is all about seed positioning, not the bubble right? NSFMF. The Rebels are barely hanging on to a spot in the field right now. They’re a Matrix 11-seed with 26 of 55 votes. That’s 50 percent. But, they’re trending the wrong way among the mock crowd. A total of 19 brackets have been updated in the last 48 hours. The Rebels are on just 6 of those, less than a third. Winning on the road in Gainesville will be tough, but they’ll need to if they want to stay in the mock field during the next round of updates. As for Florida, their record indicates a good position, but they too are just an 11-seed in the Matrix. The difference? They’re getting votes in 53 of 55 mocks. Florida has to win the games they’re supposed to win. This counts in that category. By most everyone’s eye, the Gators are a tournament team. There is doubt with the Rebels. If the Rebels do notch the road win, it would be interesting to see if the teams just exchange support numbers.
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, 1:30, ESPN Full Court. Lines, TT -1, O/U 150
Any power conference league game in February that involves teams with a combined 30-13 record ought to be worth watching and it should have some stakes on the line. The stakes here are all about the bubble. The Cowboys look safe. They remain a unanimous selection among the mocks, but are only on the 9-seed line. They come in on the heels of consecutive losses. You never want to be near the bubble on a three game losing this time of year. As long as the Cowboys dont suffer losses in games they should win, they probably will still be there in the end. But, they need to get a nice road win somewhere down the line and today is as good a time as any. They’re in better pole position now than they were a year ago at this time, and the Pokes last year made it all the way to the Round of 32. As for Tech, they won their first nine games of the season en route to a 12-2 start. Every game Bobby Knight appeared on ESPN, he told the story of how he instructed son Pat to begin coaching defense and that the Raiders have turned it around as a result. Well, that’s fallen apart since conference play began. They used a week without a game to work on defense and rebounding. We’ll see if it pays off. If they get a road win, it would rejuvenate their tournament hopes that are on life support right now with just one lonely mock out of 55 putting them in the field. They have to finish at least .500 in league play to think about getting a bid, but with a 2-5 Big 12 record they had better begin a major February run real soon.
Minnesota and Penn State, 2:00, BTN. Lines, Minny -4, O/U 133
Despite losing four of their last five and not receiving any votes from the mocks in the Bracket Matrix, Minnesota’s goal of reaching the NCAA Tournament is not a pipe dream. Lose this game to league cellar dwellar Penn State and it might as well be. A loss here would mean making up a game elsewhere to get into the 19- or 20-win ballpark. And it would hang like an albatross around their neck when all bubble discussions come up in the ensuing weeks. The Nittany Lions have lost several close games. And you know at some point Talor Battle will win a game all by himself. I wouldn’t want to be the Big 10 bubble team that happens to.
PICKS? PICKS!
Only 3-3 since the month turned to February. Today just feels both exciting and dangerous. There are a lot of small numbers out there. It’s hard not throwing a bunch of cash on most of the home short favorites and just see where the chips fall.
UVA -2 (-150) over Wake Forest, 1 Unit……Cavs are 3-1 at home in ACC play, so they’re not unbeatable, but I think they get a nice 7-9 win this afternoon. I love the short home favorite playing with same season revenge. In Game One, Wake shot the lights out and the Cavs struggled. I expect that to even out today with home cooking. Plus, UVA got in foul trouble, perhaps something else that wont happen on their home court.
Marquette -2 over Providence, 1 Unit… I dont trust 100 percent this club on the road–see, loss at Depaul–but they are on the most underrated teams out there. I think they sneak out another win.
Florida -2 (-125) over Mississippi State, 1 Unit……I just like this Florida team. They got a gutty road win over Bamer a couple of days ago. I think they have enough in the tank to ease by in this one by a couple of possessions. I think the Gators are the better team. And I’ll take a stab with the home court edge.
Richmond -2 over Temple, 1 Unit…..late addition via the twitter page
Obviously, I bought those Florida and UVA numbers down to where I’m just laying a two-point basket. It’s a little extra juice, but you’d be surprised how much that helps the cause over the long haul. The Marquette line was actually at 2 points. I was planning on buy that one down too. I’ll have the next update in separate post up shortly. Those three should keep me busy during the nooners.
