Bubble News: Big East Edition

Posted on February 1st, 2010 by jamiemac No Comments

February begins with a desperate bubble game tonight against teams that probably are shocked they’ve even fallen into bubble territory. When UConn travels to Louisville tonight, not only is it a battle of brand name Big East programs, but also a pair of teams who slogged their through January, losing just enough games to put their tournament hopes in doubt as the new month begins. Both these clubs were top seeds in last year’s tournament, but they need a string of wins to even secure their place on this year’s bracket. I still think both teams make the field when its all said and done. But, the loser tonight will be in decided chase mode the rest of the way. Before taking a deeper look at this game, lets take the opportunity to break down the state of the Big East Bubble with six weeks to go until Selection Sunday

The Big East can be divided into four fairly distinct groups.

The five teams at the top–Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Georgetown and Pitt. These teams are playing for the Big East title and jockeying for prime seeding in the NCAA Tournament. As of now, all five teams are #4 seed or better in the Bracket Matrix, with Villanova and Syracuse locking down top seeds as February dawns. The nine games between these teams over the final five weeks of the regular seasons will be heavyweight fights and their 13 combined games with likely bubble teams in the league will offer dramatics of a different kind. One-quarter of the eventual Sweet 16 could come from this quintet and nobody ought to be surprised. I would be excited if a Big East semifinals solely with teams from this group.

The two teams at the bottom–Rutgers and Depaul. The Big East is the best conference in the land because no league goes as deep. Teams 1-14 in this league can beat you on any given night. Sadly for the Knights and Demons they are the 15th and 16th teams in this league. Bubble teams: Dont get caught losing to one of these guys. Marquette and Notre Dame already have an L hanging across their necks. In the final dog and pony show, will that be too much of a stigma to overcome?

Those groups are easy. The next two, which include the other nine leagues of the league are easy to decipher this second, but its such a fluid situation that teams will be playing themselves up and down and back and forth into these groups. But, as the February days tick away, eventually a true pecking order will cement itself heading into March.

There’s a group of possible feisty spoilers ahead of the bottom two, but not quite far along to be a bubble team just yet–Providence, Seton Hall, USF and St. John’s. These are good teams who can win games in this league. The problem is they wont be able to win enough of them. All are sub-.500 in league play right now and face slates that are just going to be too tough for them to reasonably expect to flip thos losing conference marks into winning ones. These teams can foil the bubble teams down the stretch and in the first round of the Big East tournament. And, if you catch news of any of them springing a league upset in the next week or two, then pay extra attention because they might be moving up a division and into true Big East Bubble Territory.

By virtue of their current three game winning streak puncuated by yesterday’s home win over Pitt, the USF Bulls are probably the most likely to move up. But, they still have a losing record in Big East play. More importantly, their next three games are at Georgetown, at Notre Dame and at Marquette. They have to avoid the sweep. If they go 0-3, they would fall to 4-8 in Big East, an untenable league mark to climb out of and back to the bubble. But with the Bulls 12-6-1 ATS this season, dont be surprised to see them at do better than the experts expect a couple times during this killer three-game road swing.

The final group, technically the second group in the top to bottom pecking order of the league, is the current Big East Bubble, occupied by, in no particular order UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame and Cincinnati. None of these teams have been able to string together a winning streak since league play began. Cincy is 5-4 in the Big East. Louisville is 4-4. The other three have losing conference marks. All five played a good out of conference slate, providing some resume wins and strong schedule numbers. As long as these teams can finish with a .500 Big East mark when its all said and done, including Big East Tournament results, they should see an invite into the field. If any of them rip off a winning streak, they will cement themselve in the field. If any of them rip off a losing streak, then its hope-for-the-NIT time.

It’s safe the say the Big East will get seven bids into the Dance. It wouldnt be a shock to see nine teams. So, anywhere from 2-4 teams from this five should see the field, pending a charge from any of the teams in the group below them. Seven Big East teams are in the latest Bracket Matrix: the five contenders, of course; Uconn, a #9 with 40 of 46 votes; and Cincy, a #11 with 35 of 46 votes.

Marquette, despite garnering just four mock votes and less than 10 percent of the ballots, might be entering February in the best shape of all the Big East Bubble contenders. And, when I say in the best shape, I mean they’re playing the best basketball of anybody, anywhere on the Big East Bubble. By just about any measure, Marquette is a pretty good team. They lead the country in three-point shooting and are firmly in the top-20 percent of all teams in poinst scored, points allowed and defensive rebounding. They can score and defend with just about anyone. Head Coach Buzz Williams has this team on the right track. According the KenPom’s rankings, Marquette is the 17th best team in the country. In fact, he makes them the favorite to win every one of their remaining games. Taken individually, the Marquette is now worse than a 56-percent chance to beat any of the teams left they have to play. Oddsmakers likely wont agree on each one, but they will be betting chalk in a majority of their games the rest of the way. Marquette, if they play up to the performance they’ve shown thus far, ought to go on a February run that will lock their bid into the field. But, the Golden Eagles have been snakebit all season, losing twice to Villanova by a bucket, losing at Depail by 1 (Yikes!), losing in Syracuse by 5, at NC State by 4 and to both Florida State and West Virginia by 1. With a little better luck, they could be contending for a regional seed. Instead they’re battling on the bubble, hoping their luck turns.

As for Cincy and Notre Dame, they conveniently play each other in South Bend on Thursday. Both face difficult slates down the stretch, notably the Bearcats. Because of their slate, Cincy could probably break even the rest of the way and make the field. With just about every game on their slate against the league’s top-5 or fellow bubble contenders, the Bearcats will get several resume wins as a result. The Irish might need more of a winning steak than that. Unlike Cincy, they arent being considered at all by bracketologists. The Bearcats are seeded 11th in the current Matrix and still have a lot of support with 25 of 28 mocks that have updated since Sunday still including them in their field. The Irish? They’re not on any of those mocks and are just one bracket line amongst the four dozen or mocks in the Matrix. The other thing killing the Irish are some bad losses, notably at home to Loyola Marymount and at Rutgers. Because of those losses, the Irish cant just split against the rest of the schedule and expect a bid.

That brings us to the final two Big East Bubble contenders, Louisville and UConn, and their game against each other this evening as part of ESPN’s Big Monday.

Hard to believe that as February begins these teams are in trouble. They both spent last season as some of the elite clubs in the land. Both were #1 seeds in the tournament. Louisville advanced to the Elite 8. The Huskies got to the Final Four. But, if their current trends dont reverse any postseason glory this March will be done in the NIT. According to ESPN’s own bracket guru, this is the last team in the field, UConn, vs the last team out of the field, Louisville.

Rick Pitino and pretty much all of Cardinal Nation are ticked off as more irregular and uneven officiating proved costly to the Cards. It will be interesting to see how this game is called tonight at Freedom Hall in the wake of some of those gaffes. Its all led to a lot of close Cardinal losses and wonderment on why bad things happen to good teams. The other things its done is put the Cards on the wrong side of the bubble, at least for now. In the current Matrix, the Cards are O-U-T, out. They sit as the last team cut from the consensus Matrix. They are still one 20 of 46 mocks, but the more recent numbers trend even worse for the Cards as they are on just 12 of the 28 that have updated since their loss Saturday in West Virginia. They have lost four of five games. They do have some winnable games coming up, but also have one of the hardest closing four games to end the season as anybody in the country. They need to right their ship and get into good standing before then. For now, the Carindals glass is half crazy headed into tonight’s game.

The Huskies appear in better shape. A consensus 9-seed, UConn is still receiving more than three-quarters support from bracketologists. However, the 7 folks who excluded them from their fields are among the 28 mocks that have updated since the conclusion of play this weekend. People are beginning to wrap their minds around a field with no UConn and only Huskie wins, like they one they could get tonight, will cease that creeping mindset. But, the Huskies are shockingly tied for 12th right now in the Big East and are two games below .500 in league play. A loss at Freedom Hall means they’ll have to go on a bigtime run down the stretch just to get back to level par in the conference standings. With road trips to Villanova and Syracuse and a home game with West Virginia the next three weeks, achieving that run will be easier said than done. The question is do they have the basketball IQ to pull it off?

In tonight’s game, will Louisville’s bad defense, which has prevented them from maintaining the early leads the typically forge, improve. Will the Huskies offense which suppters and gets no production from behind the arc find a scoring touch. We have weakness vs weakness here. The one thing I do know is I wouldnt want to be the loser as there will be a lot of February soul searching for whomever notches another loss tonight.

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