Monthly Archives: February 2010

Winter Olympics: Hockey Quarterfinals Eliminate Gold Medal Contenders

February 24, 2010
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If Sunday was considered a great day for hockey, then what is today? Frankly, its a better day. The matchups are almost as juicy across the board. And, well, this isn’t round robin play anymore. We’re at the quarterfinals of the knockout stage. We’ll be sending at least two teams home today that didnt just dream of a gold medal, but expected one. Winners advance to the medal round. Losers face a ton of home country angst and hard questions on the structure of the teams they put together.

If today is anything like yesterday’s qualification round, then expect a lot of drama, close games and anxious fans. Of the four games yesterday, only Canada’s laugher against Germany was over early. The other three games all were decided by a single goal, with the underdogs going 2-1-1 ATS. The Swiss had to go all the way to the shootout stage before putting away Belarus. The Czechs dodged a major upset bid by downing surprise Latvia with a golden goal midway through the overtime session. In the nightcap, Slovakia, suddenly everybody’s medal darkhorse, was deadlocked with Norway midway through the third period before scoring the go ahead goal and hanging on for the 4-3 win. The end result? The four biggest longshots to win this tournament were all eliminated yesterday. And, there’s no rest for the winners. All advance into today’s quarterfinals to play much tougher foes.

As the final winter olympic hockey bracket crystallized, the odds shifted. Prior to the Olympics, the Canadians were the chalk. The best price you could get them at was even money, but places like sportsbook.com had them as expensive as -200 to take home gold. The Russians were 2/1 or less across the board at various books. Per BoDog,  the pre-Olympics odds for the other contenders today had the Swedes at 5.5/1, USA at 6/1, the Czechs 15/1, Finland 16/1, Slovakia 40/1 and the Swiss 125/1. 

By gaining the top seed, the Americans have gone from underdogs to one of the favorites. But at 7/2, the Americans still arent one of the top two teams per the betting public. Those designations still belong to Canada and Russia.  One will be ousted before the day ends, adding an element of danger to any bet on either country to win the gold. Both have better payouts today on the future lines than they did a week ago, but they still remain the co-favorites with Canada at 9/5 and Russia 11/4. Thats pretty close to 2/1 and 3/1. Considering you had to pay 200 just to win 100 on the Habs prior to the first face off last week and today you can get them at practicially the oppositie price, that’s what we would call value in the capping world.  Sweden is now 5/1; Finland 11/1; Czechoslovakia 12/1; Slovakia 25/1; and the Swiss remain the 125/1 longshot they were before the tournament began. Place your bets accordingly. And in between action, ponder if the NHL should adopt the Olympic point system.

USA vs Switzerland, 3:00 est. Lines, USA -2.5, O/U 5.5

Team USA opens the quarterfinals againt the Swiss, 30 years to the day they clinched their last gold medal with a win over Finland to cap the 1980 Miracle On Ice. With that kind of historic karma on their side, there is no way they lose today to the Swiss, right? Read more »

Winter Olympics: Team USA Holding Off German, Norwegian Charge For Golds

February 23, 2010
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The Olympics are coming into its final turn and the medal counts are anybody’s game. Well, not really anybody. It’s a legit two-horse race between the Americans and Germans for most overall medals. Team USA has been the lead dog from the first day of competition. They’ve pretty much had twice as many medals than just about every other country since the games began over ten days ago. Except for Germany. The Germans have been in hot pursuit all along, tying the Americans at one point late last week before another Team USA flurry of medals throughout the weekend expanded their lead back up to seven. But, the Germans are closing again. Skeleton, Bobsled and Nordic skiiing medals the last two days has been enough to overcome Bode Miller’s gold in the combined ski and the American pairs figure skating silver medal during the same time. As it stands heading into today, Team USA has 25 medals, four more than the Germans 21. Norway, 14, Russia, 11 and Canada, 10 are the only other countries with double digits. The overall medal count is a decided two-team race over the final six days of competition.

The same can not be said in the pursuit for the most gold medals as five countries are within two golds of another as the final week of competition gets underway. Team USA and Germany are tied with 7, Norway has 6 and Canada and Switzerland both have 5. Dont sleep on the Swiss or Canadians right now. There is more than enough skiiing for the Swiss to take over and add to their gold count. As far as the Canadians, they remain the favorite to home gold in both men’s and women’s hockey and curling. If they follow through and sweep those events and find a way a to pick up 1 or 2 more golds somewhere, they might be hard to beat. As the Winter Action Sports (such as ski cross) heat up again in the final week, Team Canada expects to make up ground. The Swiss were a 50/1 longshot to win most golds while Canada was 4/1. Those bets remain alive as we go deep into the final week of play.

For the most part, my focus has been on the top three teams. Team USA because, well, their the home team and winning a Winter Olympic medal count would be a huge breakthrough for the program. Germany and Norway because I have fuutre bets on both those countries to take home most golds. The bigger bet is the even money odds on Germany. The smaller bet, but much bigger payout is the 12/1 shot on the Norwegians. With these three countries bunched up at the top, this has become the most exciting Olmypics for me, well, ever.

Today is going to be a killer day in the race between these three countries, not to mention some chances for the Canadian and Swiss darkhorses on the rail to make a move. There will be a lot of head to head matchups between athletes from these countries going for podium spots in events today.

No more so than in the Combined Nordic Team Event, where all three countries are among the favorites to take gold. It was a little over a week ago when American Johnny Spillane made history, becoming the first ever U.S athlete to medal in a Nordic Combined event when he took a silver in the individual competition. Now, he is back, along with teammates Todd Lodwick, Bill Demong and Matt Dayton, trying to archoestrate a similar breakthrough in the team event. Team USA finished in fourth place in 2002, fell to seventh in 2006 and are coming off a dissapointing World Championship appearance a year ago during which they were disqualified. But, if the results of last week’s individual competition is any indication, the Americans are back and a legit threat today as they finished 2-4-6 in the final standings. For Lodwick, the lure of the podium has kept him skiing competitvely all these years. These could be his last career events and that elusive medal is still out there tantalizing him. Read more »

Bubble News: Big East Bubble Teams Edition

February 22, 2010
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March Madness for UConn arrives during the final week of February. But, at least they have home court advantage. The Huskies will be fighting for their tournament lives from here on out and this week they have a chance to pick up a pair of critical resume wins at home over Big East brand names. Tonight they host 8th-ranked West Virginia in Hartford in front of the ESPN Big Monday audience. Saturday afternoon they host Louisville. The Huskiers have pulled themselves off the mat with back-to-back wins, including as an impressive a resume win as anyone else will have with a road win at Villanova. But, UConn had lost 8 of 11 prior heading in, so all it did was put the bubble back on its radar.  Where do the Huskies stand? Are they in or out? With a home sweep this week, they would vault past a lot of bubble and be at the front and center of the field’s front gate going into the final week of the regular season. But, getting those wins are big if, beginning with tonight’s game against the Mountaineers.

As it stands in the Bracket Matrix as of Monday morning, the Huskies are on the outside looking into the field. They’re sixth-from-last out of the field and have votes from just 8 mock bracketologists. Obviously, their support would surge should they notch a win this evening. If KenPom is any indication, this will be a tight couple of weeks for the Huskies. His numbers call for a loss tonight as UConn has less than a 40-percent chance of winning. As for their three remaining games, he gives them anywhere from a 48- to 60-percent chance of winning. UConn closes the regular season on the road at Notre Dam and at USF. They need to go 3-1 in those games to finish with a .500 makr in Big East play, If they do that, they may have played themselves into the field as long as they notch at least one win in the Big East Tournament.  Tonight’s task will be tougher as West Virginia looks to continue its strong start to its stretch drive.  Can the Huskies height thwart one of the better offenses in the country? It’s the 17th ranked shooting percentage defense in UConn going up against the 58th scoring offense in the country in West Virginia. Both teams are among the best in the country at crashing the offensive boards, but the Huskies struggle sometimes holding opponents to just one and done. They’ll have to close out on the defensive glass if they want to contain West Virginia tonight.

As for the remainder of the Big East Bubble, the picture is beginning to clear up, but a lot of that portrait could really begin to dry up tonight. Either UConn takes a major leap and becomes the bubble lead dog with a win. Or, they strike out on a critical chance for a home resume win and slip farther behind the pack they’re chasing now. Cincinnati and Seton Hall sit with the Huskies among the final eight teams left out of the Matrix consensus. Should any of these catch fire and jump into the Matrix, the most likely teams to get kicked out of the field would be UAB, as the second CUSA in the Matrix, Charlotte or Ole Miss. Both of those last two teams are coming off home losses in swing games over the weekend. There is always the chance that  fellow league members knock each other out as the shakedowns on the Big East Bubble continue through the end.  Marquette and Louisville are both in the Matrix, but are no better than a double digit seed, so their respective spots in the actual field are far from secure. And, both teams really seem to be peaking, so to get in the field by swapping spots with them seems a challenging road map. A quick look at the other teams on the Big East Bubble:

Is Louisville in the field if they close with a four game losing streak? What kind of odds would you give me that they will close on a 4-game slide? Here’s the run: Georgetown, at Uconn, at Marquette, Syracuse. I wouldnt make those odds all that steep. Per KenPom, tomorrow night’s game with Georgetown is a big swing game in that regard. His computer formulas give the Cards a 60-percent chance to win that game, but less than 43-percent chance to win any of their other three. Louisville is currently a 10-seed in the Matrix and a unanimous selection. The Cards rejuuvenated their bid chances with a road win in the Dome against the Cuse eight days ago. In 12 days, they might need to repeat that trick, albeit at home, to keep their spot. So, let’s say you think they’re in the field even if they lose out the regular season. Ok, then what if they drop a first round Big East Tournament game. The Cards look good now. Their magic numbers is small. But, they have one of hardest closing schedules of anyone in the country.

Marquette is the only other Big East bubble team that currently sits on the correct side of the bracket. It’s going to be tough to keep Marquette from the field unless they vomit up some bad losses over the final fortnight of the regular season.  They are currently an 11-seed in the Matrix and all but three mock bracketologists. Of course, you can never put a road win in this league in the bank. The Eagles play at St. John’s and Seton Hall this week. As long as they can get one of those roadies, they can all but cement themselves in the bracket by sweeping home wins next against Louisville and Notre Dame. That Louisville/Marquette contest next Tuesday looms large is neither team is able to go 2-0 this week. Read more »

Winter Olympics: Super Sunday Of Hockey

February 21, 2010
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The serious business of the Olympic Hockey Tournament begins today. Oh sure, we’ve had five days of solid, engaging action. But today feels different, doesn’t it? It’s the final day of round robin competition. And for the first time this Olympiad, the big boys play each other. It’s time for the real hockey to begin. This entire tournament is the pinnacle of the sport of hockey and today it hits a new peak. It’s the closest hockey will get to having a  Super Bowl Sunday. Not just one match, but three today. And, it has a made for TV feel to it as well. All three are rematches from a previous Gold Medal game in the NHL-in-the-Olympics Era. All three are bigtime rivalries. Scandanavian bragging rights? Check. Eastern European hard feelings? Check. North American rivalry? Check. All three are in play today, not to mention critical seeding placement and byes as we head into the knockout rounds beginning Tuesday afternoon.

Some of the most important stakes are on the line in the first game of the day between Russia and Czechoslovakia. And, its a game anxious Team Slovakia fans are keeping an eye on. A Czech win today over the Russians, not only will give the Czechs one of the top three seeds, but it will also drop the Russians into 7th place and put the Slovaks into the top-6 of the draw. There are dozens of dizzying combinations the final bracket may look like after today’s games in the books, but I think the important scenarios to track today are the ones that have Russia losing today and the Canada subsequently doing enough today to claim the #2 seed. One such situation is a Canada win in regulation. Combine that with the Czechs win and the Finland/Sweden result, as long as one of those results end  in regulation with the other winning in OT. The team winning in regulation would be the top seed, but Canada would beat out either team winning in OT for the #2 seed becuase they would have the same amount of points, but the Habs would have a better goal differential. Why are those outcomes compelling? Because it leaves Canada as the #2 seed and Russia as the #7 seed. They would be destined for a gold medal game in the quaterfinals. These are the two favorites in this field. The hockey world cant wait to stop and watch  Crosby and Ovechkin add another chapter to their rivalry on the International, Olympic stage. A gold medal is supposed to be on line, not a spot in the semifinals. If the bracket falls like that, this tournament, already anybody’s game, becomes even more up for grabs. This becoming the future bracket is a storyline I’m following today.

It all becomes irrelevant if Russia wins this first game in regulation or in overtime against the Czechs. Some have suggested some lineup shuffling for Team Russia as a lack of cohesion so far has been the best defense againstthe likes of  Evgeny Malkin. Their coach has said they’ve simply lacked passion during the round robin game. It should not be too hard to raise their ire with Eastern European rivals across the ice from them. The Czechs have been great in their first two games. And, Jaromir Jagr, playing in Russia the last two years, has been fun to watch again. He looks rejuvenated. The winner today will likely be  no worse than a third seed and, thus, receive somewhat of an earlier draw. At least Russia would avoid Canada in the quarterfinals, right? Not so fast my friend, if Canada loses in regulation they might fall as far as the sixth seed. Like we said, there are dozens of bracket possibilites. Today, I’m paying attention to the ones that would create a Russia/Canada, Crosby/Ovechkin fest in the quarterfinals, two rounds before most of the betting public assumed it would happen.

Of course, here in North America, the GAME OF THE DAY, is USA vs Canada and the Americans are the decided enemy and underdog heading into the contest. It’s been over 50 years since the Americans beat the Canadiens in an Olympic hockey game.Despite that hammer and nail-like relationship, this is a legit rivalry. If they break that streak today, Team USA could very well be the top seed heading into the knockout round and wouldnt have to face any of the NHL-laden big boy teams until the medal round. Considering in two of the three Olympics with the NHL, Team USA hasnt even made it as far as the semifinals, earning the top seed and the easiest draw to get to the Final Four would be quite a coup. With a win today in regulation, Team USA, barring a major upset on Wednesday, would pretty much do no worse than playing for a medal, something they’ve only done in 4 different Olympics–at least play for a medal–since World War II.  Of course, they are big underdogs today. Canada is favored by 1.5 goals, the biggest spread oddsmakers have on the three games today. The Americans had a breakthrough a month ago in International Hockey by beating Team Canada in the junior worlds. They did it by being faster than the Canadiens. They’ve constructed an Olympic team based on speed and we’ll find out tonight if they can handle the powerful oak trees on the Canadien blue line.To be succesful, they need their centers to step up and take over the game. More than the other two games, this one will feature teammate vs teammate on several different occassions. Team USA has looked better than Canada during the first two games. But it could provide a wake up call for Canada and bad news for Team USA today.

I dont have much to say about the nightcap, Sweden vs Finland. I bet most people have forgotten that these are the teams that played for the Gold Medal in Torino in 2006. And, as neighboring countries, they have a little bit a rivalry, that borders on obsessive hatred. Seriously, Finland? Writing stories in 2008 about Sweden not winning medals in Beijing? Here’s a thought, try winning your own medals first. Anyway, this game brings Peter Forsberg back into the game and these Olympics might be the last go around for one of the game’s greatest players the last 20 years. If Finland wins, they have a strong chance at the top seed. Sweden, on the other hand, has the weakest goal differential of all the expected top six clubs. Read more »

Winter Olympics: What's Norwegian For 'Here Comes Norway'

February 20, 2010
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I ask because, well, HERE COMES NORWAY. Earning a pair of golds in each of the last two day, Norway was jumped right back into contention for the most gold medals. Team USA has six golds and still leads the chase, but Norway now is right on their heels with five. Germany has four. Suddenly my 12/1 play on Norway which looked dead after Norwegian favorites fell flat the first couple days of the Olympics is in better shape than my even money play on Germany. Not that the Germans are out of it with four golds. The race is on. As for the overall medal count, the race might be over. Team USA is on the verge of lapping the field. With 20 medals, they are now seven better than Germany, their biggest lead over the Germans during this Olympiad. They have twice as many medals as any other country, a margin they’ve held since the opening day of competition. While I am excited that the 12/1 play on golds is in play, the smarter bettors are the ones with 4/1 plays on Team USA to win the most medals and the most golds. I’d be shocked at this point if one of those didnt come in. The games enter their second week. The hockey tournaments pick up in stakes. And there are plenty of Nordic events left for Norway to get more golds and steal this thing.

AMERICANS BREAK OUT THEIR ALL STARS…….AGAIN

Look for Team USA to try and bite back today. They have three of their biggest stars today going for medals in Lindsey Vonn, Shanni Davis and Apolo Ahton Ohno. The speed skating events will be basically held live during NBC’s prime time. Vonn’s ski race will be on tape delay during the broadcast, so we’re on No Spoiler alert this afternoon. Unless we watch the action via live stream on Canada’s TSN website, of course.

Vonn goes in her third event, looking for her second medal. But, she is hardly just the story. American won only 2 medals in Torino. This season Team USA skiers have a total of six medals through four events. Bode Miller and Julie Mancusco have two apiece. The Americans have never medalled in every Alpine event during an Olympiad. While there is a long way to go before they accomplish that, they still have not been shutout from the podium yet in Vancouver.

Today, it’s the Women’s Super G.  If the betting odds tell us anything, its dont expect the American streak to end today. Vonn is the heavy favorite to take the gold medal from this 53-skier field. She is listed as 8/11 at BoDog and as pricey as -200 at sportbook. Two hours before the race, you cant even find odds at BetUs, perhaps in a move to stop one sided betting on the American. She is skiing 17th today, so her run will take place sometime during the mid-2:00 hour est. Her American teammate Julie Mancusco is the first out of the gates this afternoon. It’ll be interersting to see  if she can set a blazing pace. She’s already earned two silvers this Olympiad, so nobody on the women’s side is skiing better than her right now. To take the gold, she’s a 9/1 shot. It’s also not a women’s Alpine race without the ubiquetous European stars Marie Riesch and Anja Paerson.  They both had disappointing downhills, but rallied to take gold and bronze in the combined event. Both go off at 5/1 odds today. Reisch, the German, skis 12th, while the Swede Paerson skis after Von in the 21st slot. Read more »