Monthly Archives: January 2010

Well, here we are at the end of the line. After more than four months of being entertained and engaged by the greatest sport in the world, the college football season comes to a close tonight. And, with it, a hot bowl season over here at the Just Cover Blog. We’re 20-12-1 against the spread in our Bowl Chronicle series. Had you wagered to $100 per pick, you would be up $680, which is nice. But, we’ve been splitting picks up between single and double plays and if you’ve followed us to the letter and wagered to win $100 per unit on each pick, you would be up a cool $1,420. Happiness is paying for your Christmas shopping bills through bowl winnings.

Enough bragging. We have one big game left. And, we want to end on a winning note. Admittedly, nobody needs to go to the window tonight to add to the excitement. I mean the national championship is on the line. But, what kind of silly sap doesnt want a little action riding on the big game. So, for one last time, lets Book It during this college football season.

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama vs Texas. Lines, Bama -4.5, O/U 46

What a matchup. Brand names. Historic powers. Great college players all over the roster. Future NFL Pro Bowlers. Everyone knows the burnt orange of Texas and crimson, white numbered helmets of Alabama. Texas Fight. Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer. Hook ‘Em Horns. Roll Tide Roll. This game features old school powers who remain current day elite programs. I can not wait to watch this one tonight.

It’s also a great contrast in style. In Texas, you have the new school, spread the field, short passes that demands their hotshot QB  dissect a defense. In Alabma, you have the old school, pro style, no frills power running game, spearheaded by a Heisman winning tailback. Both are strong across both lines. Both have plenty of talent to combat the others style and system.

What’s fascinating is that one of Bama’s prime advantages, its run defense and the presence of Mt Cody in the middle, might not have a huge impact on what Texas wants to do. Fact is, this team doesnt look to run the football. They wont try plunging their tailback into the line, they dont care about that. Heck, QB Colt McCoy will likely end up leading the team in rushing tonight and if he nets something like 60 yards, the Horns will be on the positive side of the scoreboard. Instead, the Bama front needs to raise their game and apply the pressure in the passing game. Everybody expects the Tide to be able to do, based on what Nebraska and Suh did to them in the Big 12 title game. But, I dont think Bama’s DL is as good overall as the Huskers, and they’re not the across the board pass rushing unit Nebraska is. I think McCoy can get things rolling tonight. I have a sneaky suspicion, he grabs the MVP tonight, an award much better than the Heisman he may have lost that night he became Suh’s ragdoll. Read more »

If the TCU/Boise game the other night was the mid-major championship, then what is this game between Sun Belt Champion Troy and MAC Champion Central Michigan? The mid-major NIT? Who knows, but I will say I am very excited to watch this game. Both teams have dynamic offenses, led by experienced, savvy and playmaking senior quarterbacks. While the TCU/Boise game showcased that ‘yes, mid majors do have defense’ tonight’s game ought to have a decided offensive bent. Gamblers who bit hard on Monday night’s Over, should be able to recoup their losses this evening. I cant imagine a shortage of points this evening.

For me, its also a sad night of football. It’s the swan song of one Dan LeFevour, the CMU quarterback. It’s been a blast watching this kid for four years. Not to mention gambling on him. During his four years, the CHIPS have been one of the better ATS teams in the land. Allow me to go through some of my personal highlights of the LeFevour Era in Mt Pleasant.

• He found playing time right away, subbing in and never looking back, in his first ever college game against Boston College in 2006. It was a Thursday night game, the opening day of football that season, and it was a rare home game for a MAC school over a BCS league team. The Chips gave them all they could handle, losing by 31-24, but covering the 11-point number. LeFevour threw for 221 yards and run for another 72 yards.
• The back to back MAC Championship games they won over Ohio and Miami during his freshmen and sophomore seasons. The Chips were laying just a field goal in both games. It was easy money and the CHIPS rolled to a pair of blowout wins.
• The 2007 rivalry game with Western Michigan, one of the most bizarre games I’ve watched, let alone bet on. It was 10-7 after three quarters, but the teams combined for 48 points in a fourth quarter for the ages. The Chips lost a 10-point lead, but scored the game winning points on a goal line sneak by LeFevour on the final play of the game.  This was one of those classic Tuesday night November games in the MAC. And, frankly, if its revealed that not everything was on the up and up about it, it would not surprise me in the least. But, I wont be refunding any Books money, thats for sure.
• The 28 points he engineered in the third quarter of the 2007 Motor City Bowl, a classic shootout with Purdue. The Chips were down big at the half, but LeFevour wiped the defecit out in the third quarter alone, throwing two and running two touchdowns. While the Chips lost, LeFevour was brilliant that night. And, it brought this blogger a big win on the side and the total. This is really one of my favorite games of all time.
• That is, if the 2009 CMU/Sparty game isnt. We all know what happened here. LeFeveour moved the ball all day on MSU. The two TD head start via the point spread was never in doubt. But, CMU basically had the ball the whole second half and they won it at the end because MSU couldnt recover an on-sides kick or not jump offsides. Part of Mike Valenti’s soul died a bit that day. That’s alwyas a good thing.

Really, the kid’s whole career at CMU has been a highlight for me. I cant recall the last MAC team that for four solid years running was easy money against the Vegas line the way Central has been with LeFevour at QB. The Chips are 34-14-2 ATS with LeFevour as a starter. There’s no way I am fading that. There’s time for one last dance.

The Pick: CMU -2.5, 1 Unit……..Troy brings their own stud quarterback, so this wont be easy. But, the bottomline is both teams bring in good offenses. Only one, however, brings in a defense and thats Central. The Chips are pretty good across the board on D, but Troy gives up yards like a sieve.  Am I worried that the MAC have lost their last eleventy billion bowl games in a row? Not really. The Chips arent your standard MAC team. Besides, BG blew out Troy this season and I think CMU is a much better team.

When Iowa and Georgia Tech meet in tonight’s Orange Bowl it will be the bloom from a recruiting surge three years ago. Both programs signed higher ranked classes than usual in February 2007 and now three years later are knocking heads in a big money, BCS bowl game, one as a conference champion, and the other missing their league’s title by a whisper in no small part because their starting QB was injured for the showdown that tilted the race. The cores of both these teams was forged on the recruiting trail that cycle.

Georgia Tech’s 2007 class amazes me on several levels. One, it was ranked significantly higher than every other Tech class in the immediate years before and after. Per Rivals, it was ranked #18, on the heels on of five classes that had trouble breaking in the top-50: 49, 49, 57, 62, 52.  Their recruiting classes since then have had similar numbers as 2002-06. Phil Steele ranks recruiting classes as well and in 2007 Tech checks in at 17 after having never been in his top 25 prior to that or since. Two, the high percentage of prospects that panned out with 10 of the signees having developed into first teamers for this game tonight with another four second string on the two deep. Three, the fact this class didnt implode and part ways in the wake of a coaching change. Ten months after this class signed on the line, the school fired Chan Gailey, the coach who convinced them to come to Atlanta, and replaced him with Paul Johnson and his quirky, somewhat old fashioned triple option offense. Yet, the kids stuck around and two seasons later, players and coach have led Tech to a rare high–an ACC Championship.

Do you think Tech’s haul was important that year? It only netted Josh Nesbitt, Jonathan Dyer and Roddy Jones. Folks, that’s the offense.  The class also yielded stud Derek Morgan on the DL as well as a second starter on the defensive  line, as starting linebacker and 3 of 4 starters in the secondary. A parttime starter at wideout, 2 offensive linemen and 4 top second stringers rounds out the impact of this class so far. There is barely a bowl team at GT, let alone an ACC champion, without this class of prospects.

Over at Iowa, the intriguing aspect of its 2007 class is that it came practically on the heels of the 2005 class that many thought was the best ever at the school. That class has been a well talked about bust. The 2007 class, however, was not ranked quite as high, but did come in better regarded than most other Iowa prospect lists. The difference in guru approval between 2007 and 2005 when the classes arrived on campus has been more than made up for by results. It’s also a testament to a coaching staff’s ability at  identifying a kid’s strength and knowing where to put him on the field. In 2007, 4-star recruits Christian Ballard and Broderick Binns came in as a tight end and a linebacker, but during the third year in the program together they were starters next too each other on one of the most fierce defensive lines in the country. Marvin McNutt came in as a QB, but is now catching game winning touchdown passes. Taylor Sash came in as a 3-star athlete. Brian Bulaga was a stud OLine recruit and has turned into a stud college OLineman. There are several other members of the class contributing right now in parttime roles that ought to expand during their final two years of eligibility. Now, this class isnt as omnipresent on the depth chart as Tech’s class is, but its still ranked higher than all but one Iowa class in recent years. And, those are arguably five of the better guys on the team. Where are they without half of them? Not in this bowl game, that’s for sure. Their ceiling would be something less Orangey and more Insighty.

The recruiting uptick in 2007 is paying dividends now for both schools. And NFL Draft departures pending, it ought to keep both schools in their league races next season. I wonder what my brethern in the Michigan fanbase thinks about this. Their 2007 class has been a disaster, of sorts. The 20-member class was ranked 12th in the nation per Rivals. Three years later, eight of those 20 prospects have left the program. They almost have as many kids from this class transfer out as Tech has starters from this similarily ranked class that same season. There are seven starters on the team from that class, but frankly those starters have not produced as well as the key figures from Iowa and Georgia Tech’s class that year. You know, I dont want to talk about this anymore.Its painful.  So, lets move.

Like last night’s Fiesta Bowl, this game presents this gambler with a choice between two favorite programs. Most people hate betting on Georgia Tech games because over the years they’ve been very inconsistent and hard to get a read on. I’ve actually had an easy time capping their games. If they’re a road dog, bet them. If they are a home favorite, fade them. Over the years, Tech consistently ‘underachieves’ at home and ‘overachieves’ on the road based on the betting public’s expectations. Betting against Tech in those spots at home and on the road has served me well over the years, while others spin their wheels trying to figure out one of the flakiest programs in the south. Since 1990, Tech is 26-33 as home chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win., but 37-23 as road dogs. The book on Tech is that easy, especially as road dogs. Read more »

When the Fiesta Bowl kicks off tonight between Boise State and TCU, gamblers are going to have a tough call to make. Both these clubs have been a bettors dream. Boise State performed far and away better than any other program this decade when it came to covering the spread. They 62-percent covering rate this decade easily outpaces Iowa, the team in the #2 slot with a 58-percent cover rate. People love betting Boise and the chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win.. During the 2004, I got a chance to spend a season behind the scenes with a street book. We got killed so much on late night Boise action that season that we stopped letting people leave messages up until kickoff and closed all of the betting when we shit phones down at 7:00. We just could afford to allow people to keep playing Boise up through the late, late night kickoff. Current head coach Chris Peterson has more than furthered those numbers going 28-18-2 ATS in his tenure, with those numbers trending upwards. The Broncos are 16-7-1 ATS the last two seasons. Not to be outdone are the TCU Horned Frogs. They’ve been one of the best chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. investments in the whole game in recent seasons. In the last five seasons, TCU is 33-16 ATS. Like Boise, those numbers have been on the uptick during more recent times. The Frogs are a sparkly 15-5 ATS as chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. the last two seasons, 7-3 this season.

This is like picking between hot women, there cant be a wrong answer, right? Actually, there can be. One of these pointspread monsters will go down tonight, burning cash for their investors along the way. You have to pick one of these teams. Better choose wisely. This is like finally having to decide whether or not to end it with the girl you’ve been seeing at college or the girl back home you’re dating. Eventually, they will meet in something called a Fiesta Bowl and force your hand. I hate it when worlds collide.

Of course, I’m not the only one bummed out about worlds colliding. A lot folkjs, including some of the players on these teams had hoped for a shot at the Florida’s of the world in this bowl game. There is disappointment that instead of a David vs Goliath game that our sports world seems to crave, we get this clash of mid-major powers. Me? I’m disappointed that two hisotrically awesome ATS teams are playing and that I cant pick both. But, outside of that sphere, I’m not too bummed out about this matchup.

During the 2004-05 and 2008-9 bowl seasons, the top two mid major powers were paired in a bowl game and the results were among the best games played that year. In the 2004 Liberty Bowl undefeated Boise played 11-1 Louisville, the final year the Cards were in CUSA and not the Big East. Louisville won a tremendously played back and forth game 44-40. Last season, it was the unbeaten Broncos again, this time facing off against 11-1 TCU in the Poinsetta Bowl. A nailbiting 17-16 Horned Frog decision had fans on edge all game. If tonight’s game can match those two as far as drama and closeness go, then I will be a happy college football fan.

Boise lost both of those games, but covered the spread each time. No reason to think it wont play out close to the same way. These teams were separated by a mere point last season. While the teams are different–each team had to makeover some positional units this past offseason–I dont think TCU has made some sort of leap into a new stratosphere, leaving Boise in the dust. I think either team can win this game tonight. I feel like taking the touchdown head start is playing it smart, figuring these are even teams who will again play close to a draw like they did last bowl season. Read more »