Monthly Archives: January 2010

Basketball Picks: Sunday, 1/24 (Cincy vs Louisville)

January 24, 2010
By

Obviously football is on everybody’s mind today. Its a small college basketball menu. We’re not even getting the typical Sunday night ACC doubleheader on FSN today. But, in the smattering of games today, not only are there important contests, but also some investment opportunity. Yesterday, we went 6-6-1 in our first major day of action in hoops of the season. For the season, the record is 22-18-2, +6.5 Unit. Let’s play today, shall we.

Cincinnati at Lousville, noon, ESPN Full Court. Lines, LVille -8.5, O/U 142.5

When Cincinnati plays Lousiville this afternoon in Freedom Hall, it might be as important a Bubble Game as we can with eight days remaining still in January. According to the Bracket Matrix, this is a battle of two consensus 11-seed. Neither are unanimous, however, and neither club nets more than three quarters of the vote. The Cards are hovering near the 50-percent mark. Its a good bet the loser gets bounced out of the Matrix during the next round of updates in favor of team like Oklahoma State, Northwestern or Florida, all of whom notched huge bubble wins yesterday.

The Cards have lost three games in a row. By now, we all know my line: losing streaks mar tournament resumes. So too do non league losses to Western Carolina and UNC Charlotte, both of which hang on Louisville’s resume. If the Cards throw a fourth straight loss on the board, they will fall to 12-8 overall and below .500 in the Big East. To call this a must win game is an understatement. We saw last year this league cannablize the candidacies of good, not great, Georgetown and Notre Dame teams. Louisville is fitting themselves for those same gallows with the current January performance.  They still have 2 games against UConn and Syracuse, home games with Georgetown and Notre Dame and road games at West Virginia, St. Johns and Marquette. I wouldnt want to fall too much closer to the .500 mark with the slate ahead. The bug question today is can they Cards stop anyone? On the three game slide, they’ve allowed 80 or more points in each contest. Thus far, this has been no defense for the Cardinals.

As for Cincy, its beginning to feel like Deja-Vu. Each of the last two seasons, the Bearcats have been a feisty out, cutting down enough impressive Big East pelts to put themselves in surprise contention for a NCAA tournament. In the end, they havent had enough gas for a full season and the Big East challenges throughout the year got the better of them, landing them confortably in the NIT. This year looks to be different. The Bearcats have been ranked for a few weeks in the polls. And, instead of spot to win in the Bracket Matrix, they had a spot to lose. Well, now’s the time we see if they lose it or not. They dont have any bad losses and they’ve played a real good looking schedule. But, from here on out, the Big East slate has sharp teeth. Their next four games are Providence, at Notre Dame, Syracuse, at UConn. They close with at West Virginia, Villanova, at Georgetown. Today’s result will help determine what kind of margin of error they might have in those games and still manage to earn a bid.

The Pick: Cincinnati +8.5, 1 Unit……..I think the Bearcats are the better team. I give them a 50/50 shot at pulling off the road win today, so I’ll take those points and look to take it to the bank.  I like their balanced offense, experience and depth. Cards are still a team in transition and I’m not sure they belong being favored by this many points against a fellow good team. The Bearcats have held on to the ball real well the last two games, thanks to the insertion of freshman Jaquon Parker into the starting lineup. Tonight will be his toughest task yet as a starter against the Cards pressure, but the way Lousiville has played defense lately, I feel he will have enough success to keep the Bearcats in contention for all 40 minutes today.

Other games of note: FSU is 4-point favorite at home against Ga Tech. A great ACC game. And, I have no idea who is going to win. We have a unranked favorite Seton Hall, laying 2 points against ranked Pitt. We love those, but we dont like that one for some reason. We hate betting against Pitt. And, also of note, is Indiana, 3-1 at home in Big 10 plays, is 6.5-point chalk at Assembly Hall today against Iowa. Its the first Big 10 game that the Hoosiers have been favored in during the Tom Crean Era. Progress, people. Progress. Read more »

Basketball Picks, 1/23 (Update: Night Games, Final Update)

January 23, 2010
By

(Programming note: Final Update for the day. Night Games! Cheers!)

But first: Come on Gophers! Come on Bamer! Close Strong!   Damn you Gophers!!!!  On edge. All these games right now are going down to the wire. The Buckeyes are stealing some of the anger I have for Minnesota right now. We’ll see how it goes. Anyway, here are 4:00 tips. Fading powers? What fading powers?

Alright, here we are, final update of the night. As it stands right now, we’re in the barn with a less-than-inspiring 3-4-1 record. We’re down 0.7 units, or 70 bucks if a Benny is your unit play. Two plays are currently active and in the first half of play. Single Units on South Carolina +7 over Florida and NC State +10 over Maryland. Both are covering now, but as we learned in the Minnesota, Ohio State and Michigan ganes in doesnt matter what the first half score is as far as the final point spread decision is concerned. Anyway, lets finalize the card with these three night games

Northwestern -1  over Illinois…..the fourth and final pick from the Big 10 Picks post. 1-1-1 so far, so this is the deciding play.

Clemson +2 over Duke……might as keep fading Duke on the road until they prove it. Clemson is more than equipped to win this one. And, I think they will.

USC -1 over Washington……the bubble team’s best friend will be USC. They might be the best team in the league. But, they cant play in the tournament due to sanctions. But, they can cut a swath through Pac 10 contenders and help limit the amount of bids. The better USC does in league play, the more likely this indeed locks in as 2-bid and even has a chance to be a 1-bid league. But, thats a season long storyline. Tonight the Huskies get swept out of LA, putting them in a bad position the rest of the way.

All of these are 1 Unit plays! Good Luck! Read more »

Big 10 Picks: January 23 Basketball Edition

January 23, 2010
By

As the Bracket Matrix stands today the Big 10 would receive just four bids into the NCAA Tournament. That’s one less than the Atlantic 10 and just one more than both the Mountain West and Pac 10. Wasnt this supposed to season supposed to signal a renaissance in Big 10 hoops? I thought it was, but instead it looks like last season’s highly regarded version of Big 10 basketball might be more one hit wonder than late-1980s, early 1990s redux. The Pac 10 has been a punch line amid college basketball circles, but if USC hadn’t banned themselves from the postseason, they would have as many projected bids right now as the Big 10. That’s not good.

What does that say about our hometown league? I have no idea. Or better put, I dont put any stock in it as proof that somehow the league is bad or is even “down” again. I still think its upper echeleon can compete with anybody. Michigan State, Purdue and Ohio State will all play into the second week of the tournament and could easily play themselves into the Final Four in the right bracket. I would put Wisconsin in that category had it not been for the Leuer injury.

The problen the league faces regarding tournament bids is that its expected middle class teams are all playing seasons below expectations. In November, Illinois, Minnesota and Michigan were locks to make the field. All are on the outside looking in right now.  The league’s expected Cinderella, Northwestern, has a guadish record, buta  flimsy resume behind the numbers. These teams cant rely on a .500 record getting them into the field. Some of them might even need to exceed 10-8.  I cant believe a fifth tournament wont emerge. I’d even lay bets out on a sixth still making it. But, these guys need to start getting bigtime wins, and its never too early to begin doing that.  With the league postseason bid outlook at its lowest ebb of the season, the league faces about as important a weekend as you can have while its still January. Sounds like a great time to do an impromptu Big 10 Picks post for the Saturday games.

Michigan State at Minnesota, noon, CBS. Lines, Minny -1, O/U 139

Minnesota’s tumultous season took a pair of turns for the worse this past week with a sucker punch loss at Indiana followed by the announcement later in the week of the academic ineligibility the rest of the way for Al Nolan. Folks have been advised to book NIT-bound tickets. Seriously, if Minnesota did host Illinois State or San Diego State in an NIT game, with the way the Gophers have played lately, I’d take those points. But, that’s weeks away. Today, the Bracket Matrix is beginning to agree with the southward hopes of the fanbase. The Gophers are no longer a consensus tournament team and with only 20 out of 41 mocks placing them in the field they have tumbled all the way to ‘first team out’ status. Thats not a bad place to be this weekend. Minnesota hosts Michigan State Saturday afternoon.Their NCAA resume could use a signature win in the Big 10 to reverse the season’s fading course.  You know a win today will help make up a lot of minds in their favor come the next round of updates. It might only be a shortlived exile from the bracket projections, but the Gophers will battling the bubble the rest of the way. Read more »

Can Michigan Maintain Momentum In Madison?

January 20, 2010
By

 Michigan’s quest to maintain the momentum its built up this month trying to rebuild their NCAA Tournament resume, makes a stop in Madison and one of the toughest places to play in the country. The Badgers are 130-10 at home during the Bo Ryan Era. Good luck with that, Michigan.

In Michigan’s favor is that the Badgers will be playing their third straight game without leading scorer, rebounder and shooter Jon Leuer, out indefinetly with a broken wrist. The versatile Leuer is one of the rare post players thats as smooth and effective inside as he is outside. He’s great around the goal, but can stroke it from behind the arc. He is one of the more talented players the Badgers have had in the Ryan Era.

It’s against that backdrop that the Badgers are trying to notch a win and stay in range of the first place Michigan State Spartans in the Big 10 Title chase. For Michigan, its a chance to get a huge road win, taking advantage of the Badger’s injury situation, and slip into a tie for second place with Illinois at the one-third mark of the Big 10 season. I feel Michigan needs to win one of their next three games to give their tournament candidacy some juice heading into February. A win tonight gives them a chance to make a major move with games against Purdue and Michigan State left yet to close the month.

Wisconsin aims to regroup tonight after looking like damaged goods over the weekend against Ohio State. For the Badgers, it was their first big test against a fellow league contender without Leuer. The Badgers caught a break as OSU’s Evan Turner was benched with foul trouble most of the first half, but without their own best player they still lacked the firepower to hang for 40 minutes with the Bucks. If Wisconsin is going to survive this stretch without Leuer, they need Keaton Nankivil to elevate his game. The Badgers need a post presence for its swing offense and without Leuer in there, Nankivil is there only hope. If he somehow goes off tonight, Michigan will be in trouble. If their next-to-nill post production keeps up in the wake of Leuer injury, Michigan will be in the game the whole way.

Without Leuer, the Badgers have really struggled on offense. They did beat Northwestern, but had to overcome several scoring droughts, including a 0-for-10 run, before easing by the Cats. Against OSU, no Leuer was even more noticeable. They shot just five free throws, a troubling number for a team that regularily makes more freebies than their opponents even take. More compelling is the kind of team the Badgers are without their top–some would say only legit–post player. This is a three-point shooting outfit that Michigan fans can relate to. Only Michigan has a higher ratio of three-point attempts to overall shots as Wisconsin does. Of course, the Badgers are a bit more profecient at it. Shooting at a 35-percent clip puts the Badgers in the middle of the country statistically as far as shooting from behind the arc goes. That’s a treasure trove of makes for the Wolverines who rank 314th in the country in three-point accuracy.

The top Badgers marksmen, Travan Hughes and Jason Bohanen, both shoot at or above a 40-percent clip from behind the arc. Whether the Wolverines use their 1-3-1 zone or other defensive strategies, they have to push those shooters out into a uncomfortable range and force some bad shots. This is especially so for how they check Bohanen. When he scores in double figures, the Badgers have been virtually unbeatable during his stint in Madison. In two games without their star in the post drawing the defense, the Badgers have been building a house with bricks from long range. They’re shooting less than 30 percent from behind the arc in those games, 16-for-52, Bohanen has made only three shots from long range and the Badgers have averaged 55.5 points. Like Sunday’s game with UConn, if Michigan can get one, maybe two hot stretches, from three point territory, they will be in position to steal this one at the end. Read more »

Bubble News: Win Over Huskies Improves Michigan's Math

January 17, 2010
By

Michigan’s win over UConn was satisying. For starters, its always great winning money on your home town team. And it helped that the three inside-the-number advantages would have in this game all played out in Michigan favor Sunday afternoon.

I expected Michigan to score more long balls from behind the arc and to force the consistently slopping Huskies into more of the turnover problems that had plagued them this season. Sure enough, Michigan surged to a nine point halftime lead behind a 6-0 advantage in made treys and a +5 turnover margin.

When the Huskies took control in the second half and made their run at Michigan, the third factor–the Huskies penchant for missing free throws–reared its head. UConn missed eight second half freebies. A failure that kept them from taking control and a lead of any substance in the second half.

Eventually the game was clinched when Zach Novak drained the teams ninth trey of the day (the Huskies only made one trey on the day) and Manny Harris went coast to coast for a bucket off a Huskie turnover. A tie game had turned into five-point edge and there was only a minute left to play.  Three-pointers and turnovers, the two advantages Michigan needed most to win, they got and utilized each in the final sequences to close down its most important win of the season. Celebrate Good Times right here at Dylan’s pad, and ponder the Maize and Blue’s new postseason math.

The win over the Huskies doesnt put Michigan on the Bubble. It’s mid January. There really is no bubble yet, unless you’re ready to declare Wichita State, Oregon and St Johns legit next in line candidates. I’m not. Everyone still has the meat of their league schedules ahead of them. The ink isnt dry on anyone’s invitation or rejection letter to the dance. At this point we only have drafts of the likely mailing list for bubble contenders. What the win over the Huskies does for Michigan is draw a legit road map to both a spot in the bubble when it matters most and eventually a spot on a bracket line when it matters most. The win also makes us all feel more bullish on their chances of traversing whatever postseason road map any of us can whip up. So, with the good times rolling, let’s throw one out there:

I think this team has it in them to go 8-5 down the stretch. All the games are Big 10 games. That would give them an 18-12 overall, 11-7 Big 10 mark.  Going back the last seven seasons, a four game above .500 mark would likely net a 3, 4 or 5 seed in the Big 10 Tournament. In all liklihood, it would put them in the 4 vs 5 game, the second game of the day on Friday, in the BTT quartefinals. Its hard to see them winning that game, or even the 3/6 qfinal game, and being left out of the NCAA field. A loss in the semifinals would give them a final record of 19-13, with a dozen total Big 10 wins. They would be 13-7 in their final 20 games, with three quarters of those wins of the proverbial resume variety. They would be dancing. Read more »