Bubble News: Big Ten Trio Jostles For Outside Position

Posted on January 26th, 2010 by jamiemac No Comments

When the weekend began, three Big 10 teams crowded the Bracket Matrix’s group of final eight teams left out of its consensus field: Minnesota, first out; Northwestern, fourth out; and Illinois, fifth out. All were struggling to standout in the minds of mock bracketologists, each netting somewhere from just less than a one-quarter to just a shade under half of the mocks approval for entry to the field. Over the weekend, the big winner of these three teams was clearly Northwestern who beat Illinois, while Minnesota let a huge home win and comfortable lead slip away en route to a loss to Michigan State.

Despite poor shooting and foul trouble from key players, Northwestern snapped a 11-game losing streak to the Illinois Saturday night in Evanston. The Wildcats piled up some ugly numbers throughout the contest, but had enough in their bag to spring the win to set off a state of joy after six years of losses to the Illini.

Even though their top guns struggled to hit the broad side of a barn for most of Saturday night, the Wildcats perservered thanks to its effort on the offensive glass and holding on to the basketball. The Cats grabbed 10 offensive board’s to the Illini’s 4 and only turned it over 7 times, while the Illini committed 15 turnovers. Those numbers helped Northwestern overcome a severe difference in shooting accuracy. The Illini struggled keeping up with the motion and precise cuts of the Cats’ Princeton offense and the fouls began piling up, eventually leading to a +14 margin in free throw makes. Both John Shurna and Jeremey Nash scored 9 points each from the charity stripe alone, while the Illini as a team only had 10 combined makes.

Enough of the inside the box score stuff, let’s talk heart. My heart. I enjoy watching the Wildcats play, and I am pulling for them to make their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance. At least twice a game that old school offense of theirs clicks on full throttle, and its a thing a beauty. Not to mention an avalanche of points. This worked against the Illini. A big run out of the gates helped Northwestern start the game, then a 15-2 run late in the second turn turned a defecit into the lead for good. Shurna and Nash can fill it up from the behind the arc, Juice Thompson is a good point guard and freshmen Drew Crawford seems to make MVP-like plays down the stretch of games. They’re not a very deep team. They basically roll their starting five out there and that’s it. Will they have enough gas to get to March with a bid in their pocket? We’ll see.

But, they’re talking tournament in Evanston and the Cats are getting closer and closer to a bid. They didn’t have a quarter of the votes a week ago, even after their home win over Purdue. Another resume win later (and, yes, despite the beatdown they suffered in Columbus in between the Purdue and Illinois wins), however and they’re getting close to half the vote. Now 18 out of 46 mocks is nothing that impressive, but look deeper in the current Bracket Matrix standings. More than half their votes have come from the two dozen mocks that have updated since Saturday. They dont have the strongest schedule down the stretch. They wont have too many chances for more resume wins and, as a result, will need to come into the barn at better than 9-9 in the Big 10. They have road games at Minnesota and Michigan State to close January. They’ll need a strong run from February on, but they have the schedule (2 games apiece with IU, Iowa and Penn State and home games with Minnesota and Michigan) and the starting unit to pull it off.

Meanwhile, after the loss, the Illini spent the rest of the weekend in duck and cover mode.With the dust settling, it’s threat level midnight for their tournament hopes, right? For now, the Bracket Matrix more than agrees. The Illini’s support has completely evaporated. Only seven mocks still have them in their field. Worse, just one of the 25 mocks updated since the weekend picked Illinois. For sure, that deserves a Yikes!

The Illini have been banned from talking to the media. The coach has admitted they dont talk to each other enough. They’ve had players only meetings. They seem to be reeling. There’s a lot of talent there, yet it hasnt meshed consistently. We’ve seen what the good Illini are capable of doing. But, until they stop inventing new ways at turning the ball over and breaking down defensively, we wont see it come out of its shell again.

The good news? The slate eases up, albeit temporarily and even if they have to trek out on the road. Their next three are at Iowa, Indiana, at Penn State. They have to sweep. They cant afford the albatross loss. And three wins at least gins up their record to 15-8 and 4 games above .500 in Big 10 play. They can also work out their kinks against the league’s bottom three. If they split their final eight against mostly Big 10 tournament and bubble teams, they’re going to have at least 11 league wins. I dont see how they get left out. Just in looking at their schedule makes me a lot less pessimistic about their chances than the local blogger and the current Matrix suggests. But, first they must avoid the bad loss over the next 10 days.

I thought the biggest loser of the weekend from the three current bubble teams in the Big 10 was Minnesota. There is no greater win in Big 10 hoops than taking the scalp of Sparty. And the Gophers had it dead to right, but let it slip away. Gopher fans are still shaking their heads at the late collapse that caused their third straight loss. This was decidely not a moral victory. What it was however another disappointing result in a season of turmoil off the court and heartbreaking losses on it. It was the sixth close Gopher defeat this season, three of them coming in the final possession or overtime. The question is already being asked if this is already a lost season for Tubby’s crew?

My question to Tubby is what was the point of that last timeout? There’s 11 seconds to go. You just got a defensive rebound and have a team that not only likes to push the ball up the floor, but thrives in it. They struggle when they dont. After watching the offense fall apart in half court, kill-the-clock type sets, why would you call a TO just so you can set one of those up? In Westbrook and Hofbauer, you have two of the best jump shooters in the transition game in all of the Big 10. Just once, trust your guys and dont stop the game. Or, if you do, please come up with a play better than waste time at the top of the arc and then do something desperate.

Now that I’ve told a national championship coach how to do his job, let’s check out the Bracket Matrix to see where the Gophers are. Saturday morning, they were on vote shy of consensus and sat as the final team out of the field. Now, they’re third-from-out on 15 ballots, one-third of all total tallies. So, they’ve fallen. Those numbers are uglier under the surface. Only 5 of 25 mocks that have updated since the weekend included the Gophers. That means that two-thirds of their support comes from mocks who havent included Saturday’s choke job into their equations. The Gophers appear in better shape than the truly are. They do have six games left at the Barn. If they sweep those–which would include resume brighteners against Purdue, Wisconsin and Northwestern–and find a way to snag one or two road wins, they will be no worse than 19-11, 10-8. That’s a mark that will get them into the field.

It’s hard squeezing Michigan into a Bubble News piece. But, the fact is they have a third and final chance tonight to succesfully complete step one of the three step math equation that should put the team right on the cusp of the field when the Big 10 Tournament rolls around. But, they’re nowhere near any hypothetical bubble today and probably wont be until at least both steps one and two are successfully in the books. They need to change their bad luck and fast. The hated Spartans are in town fresh of a stealing a road win in Minnesota. Check that, they fully earned the win at the Barn. The Wolverines buried themselves in November and December. They’ve begun to crawl out of it at times. A win tonight gives them a nice looking 1-2 punch of resume wins (the UConn win looks pretty good, eh) to close out January. I think they can go 5-2 in February. Combined with Huskie and Spartan pelts on the wall, they’ll be in contention come March.

This was a long post to simply point out that Tuesday’s (which is now tonight) Big 10 doubleheader (on different networks) is pretty important. How Manny Harris meshes and connects with his teammates off the suspension is dramatic enough. Throw in a visit from a bigtime rival and Wolverine’s desperate need for a win and you have the makings of a good game.

Northwestern at Minnesota caps the night. This result will further shuffle the Big 10 Bubble cards. If the Gophers lose, they will disappear. They might as well be Michigan. Their road back to the field would suddenly look too long. A win steadies the ship. As for Northwestern, if they get a road win at Williams Arena, they might be able to cruise the rest of the way. As long as bad losses dont begin happening, they might be a good bet to make the field.

Early lines show MSU as a 4-point favorite and Minnesota an 11-point favorite. I might be a sucker for an underdog, but right now I’m inclined to take the points in both games. Michigan is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and 12-6 ATS in their last 18 Big 10 games. I’ll always look at a Beilein team catching points. In the Minny/NW game, I think 11 points might too much chalk for the Gophers to be giving. Their defense has been shaky in Big 10 play. Too shaky to blow out the upstart Cats. This will not be a repeat of last week’s debacle in Columbus for Northwestern. I have to think they can keep it within single digits, right? Who knows, I’ll sleep on it and have a whole day to think about it.

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