Basketball Picks: Sunday, 1/24 (Cincy vs Louisville)

Posted on January 24th, 2010 by jamiemac No Comments

Obviously football is on everybody’s mind today. Its a small college basketball menu. We’re not even getting the typical Sunday night ACC doubleheader on FSN today. But, in the smattering of games today, not only are there important contests, but also some investment opportunity. Yesterday, we went 6-6-1 in our first major day of action in hoops of the season. For the season, the record is 22-18-2, +6.5 Unit. Let’s play today, shall we.

Cincinnati at Lousville, noon, ESPN Full Court. Lines, LVille -8.5, O/U 142.5

When Cincinnati plays Lousiville this afternoon in Freedom Hall, it might be as important a Bubble Game as we can with eight days remaining still in January. According to the Bracket Matrix, this is a battle of two consensus 11-seed. Neither are unanimous, however, and neither club nets more than three quarters of the vote. The Cards are hovering near the 50-percent mark. Its a good bet the loser gets bounced out of the Matrix during the next round of updates in favor of team like Oklahoma State, Northwestern or Florida, all of whom notched huge bubble wins yesterday.

The Cards have lost three games in a row. By now, we all know my line: losing streaks mar tournament resumes. So too do non league losses to Western Carolina and UNC Charlotte, both of which hang on Louisville’s resume. If the Cards throw a fourth straight loss on the board, they will fall to 12-8 overall and below .500 in the Big East. To call this a must win game is an understatement. We saw last year this league cannablize the candidacies of good, not great, Georgetown and Notre Dame teams. Louisville is fitting themselves for those same gallows with the current January performance. They still have 2 games against UConn and Syracuse, home games with Georgetown and Notre Dame and road games at West Virginia, St. Johns and Marquette. I wouldnt want to fall too much closer to the .500 mark with the slate ahead. The bug question today is can they Cards stop anyone? On the three game slide, they’ve allowed 80 or more points in each contest. Thus far, this has been no defense for the Cardinals.

As for Cincy, its beginning to feel like Deja-Vu. Each of the last two seasons, the Bearcats have been a feisty out, cutting down enough impressive Big East pelts to put themselves in surprise contention for a NCAA tournament. In the end, they havent had enough gas for a full season and the Big East challenges throughout the year got the better of them, landing them confortably in the NIT. This year looks to be different. The Bearcats have been ranked for a few weeks in the polls. And, instead of spot to win in the Bracket Matrix, they had a spot to lose. Well, now’s the time we see if they lose it or not. They dont have any bad losses and they’ve played a real good looking schedule. But, from here on out, the Big East slate has sharp teeth. Their next four games are Providence, at Notre Dame, Syracuse, at UConn. They close with at West Virginia, Villanova, at Georgetown. Today’s result will help determine what kind of margin of error they might have in those games and still manage to earn a bid.

The Pick: Cincinnati +8.5, 1 Unit……..I think the Bearcats are the better team. I give them a 50/50 shot at pulling off the road win today, so I’ll take those points and look to take it to the bank. I like their balanced offense, experience and depth. Cards are still a team in transition and I’m not sure they belong being favored by this many points against a fellow good team. The Bearcats have held on to the ball real well the last two games, thanks to the insertion of freshman Jaquon Parker into the starting lineup. Tonight will be his toughest task yet as a starter against the Cards pressure, but the way Lousiville has played defense lately, I feel he will have enough success to keep the Bearcats in contention for all 40 minutes today.

Other games of note: FSU is 4-point favorite at home against Ga Tech. A great ACC game. And, I have no idea who is going to win. We have a unranked favorite Seton Hall, laying 2 points against ranked Pitt. We love those, but we dont like that one for some reason. We hate betting against Pitt. And, also of note, is Indiana, 3-1 at home in Big 10 plays, is 6.5-point chalk at Assembly Hall today against Iowa. Its the first Big 10 game that the Hoosiers have been favored in during the Tom Crean Era. Progress, people. Progress.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

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