As the Bracket Matrix stands today the Big 10 would receive just four bids into the NCAA Tournament. That’s one less than the Atlantic 10 and just one more than both the Mountain West and Pac 10. Wasnt this supposed to season supposed to signal a renaissance in Big 10 hoops? I thought it was, but instead it looks like last season’s highly regarded version of Big 10 basketball might be more one hit wonder than late-1980s, early 1990s redux. The Pac 10 has been a punch line amid college basketball circles, but if USC hadn’t banned themselves from the postseason, they would have as many projected bids right now as the Big 10. That’s not good.
What does that say about our hometown league? I have no idea. Or better put, I dont put any stock in it as proof that somehow the league is bad or is even “down” again. I still think its upper echeleon can compete with anybody. Michigan State, Purdue and Ohio State will all play into the second week of the tournament and could easily play themselves into the Final Four in the right bracket. I would put Wisconsin in that category had it not been for the Leuer injury.
The problen the league faces regarding tournament bids is that its expected middle class teams are all playing seasons below expectations. In November, Illinois, Minnesota and Michigan were locks to make the field. All are on the outside looking in right now. The league’s expected Cinderella, Northwestern, has a guadish record, buta flimsy resume behind the numbers. These teams cant rely on a .500 record getting them into the field. Some of them might even need to exceed 10-8. I cant believe a fifth tournament wont emerge. I’d even lay bets out on a sixth still making it. But, these guys need to start getting bigtime wins, and its never too early to begin doing that. With the league postseason bid outlook at its lowest ebb of the season, the league faces about as important a weekend as you can have while its still January. Sounds like a great time to do an impromptu Big 10 Picks post for the Saturday games.
Michigan State at Minnesota, noon, CBS. Lines, Minny -1, O/U 139
Minnesota’s tumultous season took a pair of turns for the worse this past week with a sucker punch loss at Indiana followed by the announcement later in the week of the academic ineligibility the rest of the way for Al Nolan. Folks have been advised to book NIT-bound tickets. Seriously, if Minnesota did host Illinois State or San Diego State in an NIT game, with the way the Gophers have played lately, I’d take those points. But, that’s weeks away. Today, the Bracket Matrix is beginning to agree with the southward hopes of the fanbase. The Gophers are no longer a consensus tournament team and with only 20 out of 41 mocks placing them in the field they have tumbled all the way to ‘first team out’ status. Thats not a bad place to be this weekend. Minnesota hosts Michigan State Saturday afternoon.Their NCAA resume could use a signature win in the Big 10 to reverse the season’s fading course. You know a win today will help make up a lot of minds in their favor come the next round of updates. It might only be a shortlived exile from the bracket projections, but the Gophers will battling the bubble the rest of the way.
Michigan State is, well, Michigan State. They are undefeated this deep into the Big 10 season for the first time in years. At 6-0 and two games up on the crowd, the Spartans are sitting pretty for another conference crown for the Izzo Era. A road win here makes their already rosy outlook for the conference crown look even brighter. A #2 seed in the matrix proves the team is on pace to be seeded for a deep tournament run. Their win over Iowa this week might have been better than a poke in the eye with a stick, but did their inability to put away the woebegon Hawkeyes showcase a flaw in their game? Their going to need a stronger closing kick than that to get out of the Barn with a win.
The Pick: Minnesota -1…..yep, calling the upset here. Dont blame me. Blame the oddsmakers for making the Gophers the favorite. I love taking unranked teams favored over a ranked opponent. The Gopher soap opera plays its most important home game of the season. I think they get it done. Ten days ago when these teams played up in Breslin, a 7-point MSU win, the Gophers rarely played any agggressive traps or presses. Tubby Smith didnt want to get run out of the gym, so they tried to slow and ugly the game up as much as possible and steal it in the end. It almost worked. Expect a different story. I know they lose a lot of speed up top without Nolan, but I think with a week to prepare, with important revenge stakes on the line, Tubby will have a trapping gameplan, maybe with a new wrinkle or two to account for their new rotation. MSU has had turnover issues. I think they crop up here and the Barn starts rocking.
Ohio State at West Virginia, 2:00, CBS. Lines, WVA -6, O/U 133
Maybe the best Big 10 game of the day is this non conference game between the Buckeyes and Mountaineers. Obviously, all Big 10 fans have their Scarlett and Gray pom-poms out. The league isnt as well regarded as people thought when the season began. But, a lot of perception will change should Ohio State go into West Fucking Virginia and steal a win. With Evan Turner, William Buford, De’Sean Butler and Devin Ewbanks, there are four future first round picks on the court today. Frankly, they all might be first rounders as soon as this June.
The biggest lock in that department is the amazing Turner. I cant rave about him any more than others have. I cant shake the strong possibility that Turner gives us a Carmello Anthony impersonation this March landing the Buckeyes in Indianapolis when its over. They have the look of a team that wants to spend the few weeks reminding people just how good they are after struggling for a month when Turner was out with the back injury. With Buford as his sidekick, I’m not convinced that Turner is the most dyanamic scorer on the team. We do know they also have 0ne of the nation’s more dangerous three point weapons with John Diebler. If the Bucks can show the toughness they’ve had on this three game winning streak, they could pull it off for the Big 10.
The Pick: Ohio State +6…….I like the way the Bucks are peaking right now. Let Huggy Bear muck up this game, thug it up into a wrestling match. Ohio State has enough offense. His strategy will take Turner out, but Buford and Diebler will pick up the slack. I havent liked the way WVA has played in recent showdowns against Purdue and Syracuse. They were clearly the second place team in both games. I think that they shows up today against an OSU team that I feel is more worthy of a higher ranking than WVA now that Turner is healthy.
Michigan at Purdue, 4:00, ESPN. Lines, Purdue -13.5, O/U 133
MAJOR UPDATE: Manny Harris has been suspended. Unsportsmanlike conduct in practice. Commence doling out odds on who got sucker punched after getting to close to his grill while playing D in a spirited pickup game. The line has also gone up to -13.5 for Purdue. Eh, wtf, I’ll hold onto the Wolverine pick. But, what a bummer for Michigan.
How will the Wolverines react in this contest? After a heartbreaking loss to the Badgers earlier this week, Michigan has to trek back on the road to play the mighty Purdue Boilermakers. I really thought Michigan played a darn near perfect defensive game against Wisconsin. The Badgers had no clue how to run an offense for most of the night and Michigan nearly came away with a rare win for a visiting team in Madison at the Kohl Center. But, they couldnt hang on and after controlling the contest for 37 minutes let it slip away in the closing sequences. Can they dig deep and pull off another monster defensive effort? The task will be harder on Saturday as Purdue comes into the game a more potent and healthier outfit than Wisconsin was. Michigan left a huge road win on the table in their quest to pull themselves off the mat andback into at least the bubble discussion. That also puts more pressure on them in this game.
Believe it or not, but I think Michigan stands a puncher’s chance in this one. Even if they dont appear to have any answers on paper for Purdue’s Big 3 of Hummel, Moore and Johnson. They did drub the Boilers in Crisler last season and played them even for a half at Mackey until Manny Harris threw a ball transfer, Chris Kramer’s face got in the way and Harris was ejected. From there, the wheels came off in the second half. But, in their two matchups last season, Michigan was on even terms or outplayed the Boilers in three of four halves of basketball. Defensively, they’ve been sharp in Big 10 play. They dont have a lot of firepower on offense, but other than a 12-minute stretch where Drew Crawford turned into Michael Jordan, the defense has been excellent at containing and keeeping the other team from going on long scoring runs that their offense has no chance of keeping up with. In Purdue, however, they play a team that has a few different guys capable of pulling a Crawford. This will be their biggest team defense chore of the season. If they play on that end of the court the way they have the last six games, especially the last two, this game will there in the end for them.
Purdue had been a three-game slide until their cathartic win earlier in the week at Illinois. The received a huge, unexpected boost from redshirt freshmen John Hart. He had only played 33 minutes all season long, but an inspired effort off the bench led to a 14-point outburst. The Boilers also got a strong game out of reserve point guard Kelsey Barlow, who, aparently has now replace Keaton Grant in the starting lineup as its point guard. Chris Kramer is also battling a sore ankle, so the backcourt might a case of shifting parts today. If that ankle of Kramer’s isnt healded enough, we might not get much that much in the way of a rematch of Elbow Gate. If Michigan can have success with any of its zone traps, they could turnover the Boilers who have had decision making issues all season with Lewis Jackson sidelined all season with an injury.
The Pick: Michigan +13.5…….Michigan has been a profitable investment that last month, going 6-2 ATS, including road covers against heavy chalk Kansas and Wisconsin. This is in the same ball park. Tthe Wolverines are 10-4 ATS as an underdog. I’ve been playing them in that spot and as cheap home favorites ever since the team turned the corner early last season. It’s worked with nice results so far. Michigan’s defense keeps this game within single digits. DeShaun Sims has been playing a lot better than JaJuan Johnsonj in recent weeks. If that trend continues, Michigan will cover this spread.
Illinois at Northwestern, 8:00, BTN. Lines, NW -1, O/U 134.5
The fourth out of the Bracket Matrix field versus the fifth out of the field. One month from now, this would be bandied as an elimination game of sorts. I still wouldnt want to lose this game even in January if were either team.
One of the more interesting storylines of the Big 10 season has been Northwestern’s chase for its ever NCAA Tournament. Folks are on Bubble Watch in Evanston, but arent too optimistic despite their great win a week ago over Purdue. That’s because the bandwagon is having mechanical problems after their beatdown at the hands of Ohio State earlier this week during which they hopelessly trailed 40-17 at halftime. This game wasnt even close in warmups. They need to rebound with a home win Saturday night against Illinois. Not only are they seeking revenge from a loss three weeks ago, they have to get a win against decent competition and keep their bid candidacy doing no worse than running in place. Its not like teams are surging up the charts right now, so for the Wildcats to stay within striking distance of the field to conclude a week to contained an embarassingly national tv loss would be progress. Northwestern has not beat Illinois since 2004, but today represents a great chance to get off the schnide.
Illinois is looking to rebound as well. After a 4-0 start they have been lit up by the Spartans and Boilermakers in consecutive league games, looking more like Big 10 middle class than elite contender in the process. In truth, the Illini are in between those two poles. A very talented lineup with a lot of capabilities, the Illini have been up and done all season. Their inability to put a winning streak together has given them the look of a bubble team. Today, they need to prove they can stop a losing streak. The Illini arent desperate. Not yet, at least. Losing streaks mar NCAA tournament resumes. Most mocks dont think Illinois has an NCAA resume right now. A loss tonight would give them a certifiable losing streak. Those two in conjunction are not good.
The Pick: Northwestern -1…….sometimes the analysis and decision making is this: A good team, playing at home, with same season revenge. Spurred by the home crowd, the Cats will rebound and defend better than they did three weeks ago. Juice Thompson will find his offense at home. Crawford will make more plays that make you wonder if he isnt already one of the most valuable players in the Big 10.
Two road underdogs against top-15 teams. And two home coin flips out for a revenge from a loss earlier in the season. I kinda like this card. We’ll see.
