Can Michigan Maintain Momentum In Madison?
Michigan’s quest to maintain the momentum its built up this month trying to rebuild their NCAA Tournament resume, makes a stop in Madison and one of the toughest places to play in the country. The Badgers are 130-10 at home during the Bo Ryan Era. Good luck with that, Michigan.
In Michigan’s favor is that the Badgers will be playing their third straight game without leading scorer, rebounder and shooter Jon Leuer, out indefinetly with a broken wrist. The versatile Leuer is one of the rare post players thats as smooth and effective inside as he is outside. He’s great around the goal, but can stroke it from behind the arc. He is one of the more talented players the Badgers have had in the Ryan Era.
It’s against that backdrop that the Badgers are trying to notch a win and stay in range of the first place Michigan State Spartans in the Big 10 Title chase. For Michigan, its a chance to get a huge road win, taking advantage of the Badger’s injury situation, and slip into a tie for second place with Illinois at the one-third mark of the Big 10 season. I feel Michigan needs to win one of their next three games to give their tournament candidacy some juice heading into February. A win tonight gives them a chance to make a major move with games against Purdue and Michigan State left yet to close the month.
Wisconsin aims to regroup tonight after looking like damaged goods over the weekend against Ohio State. For the Badgers, it was their first big test against a fellow league contender without Leuer. The Badgers caught a break as OSU’s Evan Turner was benched with foul trouble most of the first half, but without their own best player they still lacked the firepower to hang for 40 minutes with the Bucks. If Wisconsin is going to survive this stretch without Leuer, they need Keaton Nankivil to elevate his game. The Badgers need a post presence for its swing offense and without Leuer in there, Nankivil is there only hope. If he somehow goes off tonight, Michigan will be in trouble. If their next-to-nill post production keeps up in the wake of Leuer injury, Michigan will be in the game the whole way.
Without Leuer, the Badgers have really struggled on offense. They did beat Northwestern, but had to overcome several scoring droughts, including a 0-for-10 run, before easing by the Cats. Against OSU, no Leuer was even more noticeable. They shot just five free throws, a troubling number for a team that regularily makes more freebies than their opponents even take. More compelling is the kind of team the Badgers are without their top–some would say only legit–post player. This is a three-point shooting outfit that Michigan fans can relate to. Only Michigan has a higher ratio of three-point attempts to overall shots as Wisconsin does. Of course, the Badgers are a bit more profecient at it. Shooting at a 35-percent clip puts the Badgers in the middle of the country statistically as far as shooting from behind the arc goes. That’s a treasure trove of makes for the Wolverines who rank 314th in the country in three-point accuracy.
The top Badgers marksmen, Travan Hughes and Jason Bohanen, both shoot at or above a 40-percent clip from behind the arc. Whether the Wolverines use their 1-3-1 zone or other defensive strategies, they have to push those shooters out into a uncomfortable range and force some bad shots. This is especially so for how they check Bohanen. When he scores in double figures, the Badgers have been virtually unbeatable during his stint in Madison. In two games without their star in the post drawing the defense, the Badgers have been building a house with bricks from long range. They’re shooting less than 30 percent from behind the arc in those games, 16-for-52, Bohanen has made only three shots from long range and the Badgers have averaged 55.5 points. Like Sunday’s game with UConn, if Michigan can get one, maybe two hot stretches, from three point territory, they will be in position to steal this one at the end.
Like always, Michigan needs its stars, Manny Harris and DeSahun Sims, to be the best players on the floor tonight. I dont think the winner tonight nets much more than 60 points, so if the Wolverines can get something in the ballpark of 40 points from their big guns, they will be in the contest. The question always is who willl be the third wheel? Laval Lucas Perry has stepped up big in road games in the past. Can they even dare expect another three-point barrage from bench player Anthony Wright? Maybe the third wheel doesnt need to score a lot, as long as Zach Novak is around making sure that every play counts.
This might be one of the more talented teams the Badgers have had. Five of their top seven guys were top-150 recruits (per Rivals) in their respective classes. Most have been with the program for a couple of years, so its experienced too. They’re down one of those talented players, but they have more than enough defense, high end, and savvy perimeter play and, of course, the Kohl Center Magic to defend home court without Leuer. A win tonight for Michigan would be its best of the season.
The Wolverines have climbed to 64th in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, but his numbers give Michigan just an 8-percent chance of winning. This is the least likely contest Michigan will win the rest of the way according to mathlete Pomeroy. Now, I’m not much of a PomeroyHead. I find his numbers interesting, but not very helpful when it comes to handicapping games, either straight up or against the spread. Had his projections came to fruition last winter, Michigan would have been an NIT team, instead of one that qualified for the round of 32. Numbers people love it, but until I figure out a way to use these figures in picking games, its just fancy mathematical noise. Thats not to say, I give Michigan much more of a chance to escape with a W tonight. But, at 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog, I think a reasonable case can be made that the Wolverines have a 50/50 shot at covering that +9.5 number.
BUBBLE NEWS
Lets take the chance that tonight’s game, combined with Michigan’s recent surge, provides us to take a quick look at the bubble as its defined by the Bracket Matrix. Personally, I feel its too early to figure out who is and who isnt a legit bubble team. We need at least a couple more weeks of results to come in to truly define the bubble. My early analysis is that its shaping up to be a weak bubble. But, I wont stamp that as fact until we get at least to February. But, I do think if Michigan can just string enough wins to get to 10-11 Big 10 wins, they are going to be right in the thick of it because I dont think there are a lot of strong resumes out there.
Michigan, and any other team struggling to standout right now, has already received some good news with the results of the last two nights.
Notre Dame, a team thats ninth out of the Matrix, lost a golden chance to get a big win by losing Monday night to Syracuse at home. Fellow Big 10 mates, Northwestern and Illinois, fourth and fifth out of the field, dropped games last night that keeps their candidacy running in place. Miami, eighth-to-last cut, dropped a home game last night to Boston College. They now sit 1-4 in ACC play and four of their next six games are on the road with games against UNC and Duke looming down the stretch as well.
Staying in the ACC, Virginia, second to last cut from the field, is on 17 of 41 brackets, but mostly because most mock bracketologists work under the assumption that the teams in first place now get their automatic bids into the field. A 3-0 start by the Cavs is noteworthy, but lets see what kind of staying power Tony Bennett’s club has heading into the meat of their ACC season. The Cavs dont play until Saturday when to travel to Wake. I think they disappear off the Matrix should they lose.
I point those teams out because they are the ones that are ‘next in line’ right now. These teams are a big win away from grabbing a spot on mock bracket lines. It’s early and doesnt mean a ton right now. But, you cant tell me a club like Michigan isnt capable of leaping past those teams and putting themselves into the immediate ‘next-in-line’ group over the next 2-3 weeks if they play some winning basketball. If the Wolverines can end January with a 12-9 overall record, 5-4 in Big 10 play, I think the race will be officially be on for a second straight tournament bid. They have a big chance to climb the pecking order tonight. We’ll see if they are up to the challenge.
