Bubble News: Win Over Huskies Improves Michigan's Math

Michigan’s win over UConn was satisying. For starters, its always great winning money on your home town team. And it helped that the three inside-the-number advantages would have in this game all played out in Michigan favor Sunday afternoon.

I expected Michigan to score more long balls from behind the arc and to force the consistently slopping Huskies into more of the turnover problems that had plagued them this season. Sure enough, Michigan surged to a nine point halftime lead behind a 6-0 advantage in made treys and a +5 turnover margin.

When the Huskies took control in the second half and made their run at Michigan, the third factor–the Huskies penchant for missing free throws–reared its head. UConn missed eight second half freebies. A failure that kept them from taking control and a lead of any substance in the second half.

Eventually the game was clinched when Zach Novak drained the teams ninth trey of the day (the Huskies only made one trey on the day) and Manny Harris went coast to coast for a bucket off a Huskie turnover. A tie game had turned into five-point edge and there was only a minute left to play.  Three-pointers and turnovers, the two advantages Michigan needed most to win, they got and utilized each in the final sequences to close down its most important win of the season. Celebrate Good Times right here at Dylan’s pad, and ponder the Maize and Blue’s new postseason math.

The win over the Huskies doesnt put Michigan on the Bubble. It’s mid January. There really is no bubble yet, unless you’re ready to declare Wichita State, Oregon and St Johns legit next in line candidates. I’m not. Everyone still has the meat of their league schedules ahead of them. The ink isnt dry on anyone’s invitation or rejection letter to the dance. At this point we only have drafts of the likely mailing list for bubble contenders. What the win over the Huskies does for Michigan is draw a legit road map to both a spot in the bubble when it matters most and eventually a spot on a bracket line when it matters most. The win also makes us all feel more bullish on their chances of traversing whatever postseason road map any of us can whip up. So, with the good times rolling, let’s throw one out there:

I think this team has it in them to go 8-5 down the stretch. All the games are Big 10 games. That would give them an 18-12 overall, 11-7 Big 10 mark.  Going back the last seven seasons, a four game above .500 mark would likely net a 3, 4 or 5 seed in the Big 10 Tournament. In all liklihood, it would put them in the 4 vs 5 game, the second game of the day on Friday, in the BTT quartefinals. Its hard to see them winning that game, or even the 3/6 qfinal game, and being left out of the NCAA field. A loss in the semifinals would give them a final record of 19-13, with a dozen total Big 10 wins. They would be 13-7 in their final 20 games, with three quarters of those wins of the proverbial resume variety. They would be dancing.

The question is how does Michigan achieve 8-5 to close the regular season. An 11-7 Big 10 mark would be the best league result in years. Surely it takes some creative pretending to get Michigan to 8 wins down the stretch. Well, not really. I’ve broken it down into three segments. Let’s take a look at each and tell me what you think.

• Stretch One: at Wisco, at Purdue, vs MSU……..they have to find a way to win one of these games. All three are ranked teams, but Michigan is 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS against ranked teams this season. That tells me they’re gonna be in some of these games and, like today, just need to hit enough treys in one of them to nab the upset.  The Wolverines will likely be catching points in all three of these games, but they’re 8-4 in their last 12 as an underdog with four outright upsets. Again, that tells me they can at least put themselves in position to win. Getting a win in one of these pushes the door wide open for an 8-5 close and an 11-7 Big 10 record. I would almost consider it a liklihood if they get one here, but thats getting ahead of myself.
• Stretch Two: Iowa, at Northwestern, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, at Iowa.  They must sweep Iowa. You cant let gimmes get away. Bad losses in November can be washed away. The ones in February sometimes are permanent. Notch a resume home win over the Badgers. Split the roadies at Northwestern and Minnesota. Michigan won in both barns last season, so is it that unreasonable to think they can repeat that task in at least one locale? While sipping my Maize and Blue Koolaid spiked victory cocktail this evening, I say no way is it unreasonable. They’re doing it.
• Stretch Three: Penn State, Illinois, at Ohio State, Minnesota and at MSU. Simply put, win the home games and probably drop the road games for a 3-2 mark in the last five games. From a style point standpoint, it wouldnt hurt to be competitive and not get off the court in those road games, especially that last one at MSU in what certainly will be a nationally televised game like this afternoon.

There is it. 8-5. Are their tough games and huge hurdles. Of course. But, its not unmanageable either. Frankly, getting a win out of the next three might be the toughest challenge. If they do that, they’re probably going to be favored to win in 6 or 7 of their final ten games. Take care of business as chalk and notch one upset the rest of the way. Doesnt this sound a lot like last year’s challenge as Michigan elbowed its position on the bubble all winter long?

Can Michigan get in with just a 10-8 league mark, and 17-13 overall record. I dont think its impossible. We’ll have to wait and see just how strong the bubble becomes through the next 4-5 weeks. Right now, I feel the bubble is shaping up to be a weak one, so even a average looking 17-13 mark will put Michigan in play. Just how strong their place on the bubble will be is depedent on how all the other league races play out. But, I dont think that record will require a Big 10 Tournament title and the automatic bid to get in. They’ll likely be playing a first round game, but if they win that and their quarterfinal, you’re looking at a dozen total Big 10 wins, 19 overall wins and a Big 10 semifinalist. That could do it. Advancing into the finals would clinch it with a 20th win.

One thing we know. Michigan has a lot to gain by springing a big win sometime among its next three matches. And suddenly a lot to lose if they get swept. And that some high stakes January basketball is ahead of us over the next nine days.

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