So, yesterday didnt go so well on the gridiron. A 1-2 record, carving into the profits from the hoop post. I think the Ravens were there the whole way. I wonder what would have happed had Garcon not tomahawked the ball out of Ed Reed’s hands during that INT return. Oh well. Onto today, but like with today’s basketball picks we’re downgrading the value of the plays. The goal of the weekend was to make cash. We’re ahead. We’re putting aside some winnings and playing with the rest.
Minnesota -2 over Dallas………I know. I understand. I get it. The Cowboys are going to the Super Bowl. I hear you loud and clear. But, I’m always the last off the bandwagon. We’ve done a 180 on the Pokes the last month. I think the Vikings win this game by a touchdown. With the Vikes’ DL handing Dallas some of its own medicine. Regardless, Favre vs Romo. Bigtime running backs. Defensive playmakers. It ought to be the most compelling game of the weekend. I’ll take the home team and the cheap price
Give me some time to come up with something creative with the weekend finale between the Jets and Chargers. Line is steaming to the chalk, by the way, as its now up to -8.5. Expect the update around halftime or so of this one.
You may have noticed no playoff post last week. I have to admit I was a bit strung out from the constant action of bowl season. I had surprise plans crop up which I preferred doing anyway and eschewed finding time to bother posting anything about wildcard weekends. Besides, the three rematches really didnt juice me at all. Anyway, my picks were 2-2, going 0-2 Saturday, 2-0 Sunday. This weekend’s game do inspire me. All four games distinguish themselves as heavyweight bouts between teams that I think can win it all if they stay on their rolls.
Arizona +7 at New Orleans, O/U 57, 4:15, Fox
Baltimore +7 at Indianapolis O/U 44, 8:00, CBS
The first playoff game of the weekend pits the NFC’s best team of the season against a team thats 4-0 in the NFc playoffs the last two seasons. A decade ago this would be then be a game against elite professional footballs. Yet nobody probably would call either the Saints or Cardinals elite. What we know they: They are fun teams to watch that are giving their woebeggon franchise and beleaguered fan base a rare strech of winning football. I tend to like playoff games between franchises in those position.
There was a time that the top seed in the NFC playoffs was the surest bet every year in the sporting world. After going 17-1 ATS, its crumbled as a consistent investment in recent years. Actually, thats a Sugarcoat. Top NFC seeds are 0-5 ATS the last five season with four outright losses. And this is no ordinary top seed. This one is coming in a bizarre three game losing and we’re all wondering if they can just flip the switch back on. Also, they’re hosting a team thats now 4-0 in this bracket. With two top level quarterbacks, this to me just feels like one of those underdog, over games I like so much. It’s going to be hard for my personal preferences to not just let something ride on that.
Personally, I’m a believer in the Warner Show in Arizona. They’ve covered five straight postseason games. The Warner to Fiztgerald combination can win a game by itself if its cooking at full throttle. If you try too much to contain them Early Doucet and Steve Breaston will kill you. Elite college players to a certain extent, its not hard to imagine either of them running free underneath the secondary in between big plays from Fitzgerald and the Cardinals pushing the chalk to the limit today. But, I also have asserted a few times this season that the Saints wont lose a home playoff game. Dont take my word for anything. I’m partial to all three Cardinal wideouts today. Fitzgerald was one of my favorite college players of the decade. He’s been entertaining me with those catches for years and watching him play pitch and catch with Warner is something I always tune into. Of course, I love Steve Breaston, who was one of the more dangerous and unique players in recent Michigan football history. As for Doucet, he arrived in college as a premier recruit, but injuries hampered him. He’s fulfilling his bigtime promise on a bigtime stage right now. If the Cards can get Beanie Wells going like they did last week, I dont think their roll can necessarily be stopped.
The second game between Baltimore and Indy is also difficult for me to handicap with any surety. Mostly because one of my rules is never invest too much in a play against either of these teams. Regardless of matchup and pointspread, beware playing against these teams. With Peyton Manning in the other corner, you never are going to have the better QB. You dont rake in consistent profit by always betting the lesser of the two signal callers. With Manning there is always a strong chance the Colts offense plays a near perfect, dominant game and turn any game into a lopsided win. Its the same for the Raven Defense. Due to their explosive talent on defense, they can stone anyone and every time they step on the field against anyone, they can beat you by two touchdowns simply because you cant score. Its pretty competition invariant in my opinion, so you can never say a bet against these teams is a sure thing or a big play and a lead pipe lock.
The Ravens are 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, all on the road, in the last two seasons. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road playoff games. The Colts were one of the season’s biggest moneymakers. Before packing it for the rest of the regular season, Indy was 10-3-1 ATS against the closing line. That’s good for $670 had you been betting a a Ben Franklingon each game. Even with the wheeze job down the stretch, the Colts were the third most profitable bet in the NFL this season behind the Packers and Falcons (The Falcons? Really? I totally missed that development).
Historically, however, this is where the Colts have been vulnerable. In the Manning Era, the Colts are 0-3 SU, ATS in the divisional round of the playoffs off a bye. All those game obviusly were played at home. Does the playoff rust plague the Colts and make the Manning-led offense clunky in a heavyweight atmosphere, or is it just a fluke they’ve scored just 19 ppg in those losses? Obviously, the Ravens have the defense to recreate that history.
I’m pumped to watch Ray Rice. I loved watching him during his college years. He was the face of Rutgers football during those first breakthrough years of the Schiano Era. He was one of the most valuable college football players to his team over the last five years. Its been cool watching him become one of the most valuable backs to his NFL team this season. He stuffed the stat against the Colts in the first games. If the Colts dont have a defensive answer to him, the Ravens will be able to take control
The main event is Ed Reed vs Peyton Manning. This is the true chess match of the game. Not between coaches, but between these two elite football players. With high stakes on the line, this will be a classic matchup between the best QB in the league against one of its most dangerous centerfielders. Reed picked off Manning in their game in Week 10 on a play that delivers a big play for the Colts in most other cases. He returned the ball for close to 50 yards. If Reed gets his hands on one Manning ball tonight, the Ravens will be in this one the whole way. If he gets two, they’ll probably win it.
So, what to do? Well, for starters I am a believer that home field advantage has been trashed in recent postseasons and thaat I shouldnt be intimidated if I happen to like the road team. That seemed like a license to burn money when I began my capping career, but now its become fertile grounds to find consistent underdog winners. The NFL playoffs have become the NHL playoffs. Get in and you can do damge, regardless of seed. In hockey, the teams battling for the final spots collect that postseason edge weeks ahead of time and are more ready for the high stakes game out of the gate. Plus they’re more apt to develop new wrinkles and shufffle the lineup for that playoff push. I see a lot of that in the NFL in recent years. In todays doubleheader, you have teams peaking just at the right time playing teams that have turtled and havent played meaningful football in a month. I like these underdogs early in these games and I like them to be able to hold on to thise head starts and keep things closer than the experts thinks.
Cardinals +7
Cardinals Over 57
Ravens +7
