Will this be the year of the Atlantic 10? This mid-majorish league has always struggled for notoriety and respect in the shadow of the Big East and the other BCS league footprints its schools play in. Outside of the top couple of teams, most dont pay attention to this league. This year could change all that. The A10 could become a lightning rod of discussion as the winter plods along. This league coule push for as many as five bids in the final field. Would that be a coup? Consider the league has never had more than three bids and has been limited to just two invitees in three of the last four seasons. More than half the bids this league has earned the last five years have been netted by either Xavier or George Washington. It’s telling about the league’s current-day status that of three teams currently in the Bracket Matrix, neither the Musketeers or Colonials are part of it.
Xavier does figure prominently, however, in the game of the day in the league when they look to continue their recent surge in a home against Dayton (11:00, ESPN. X -6.5). A three game winning streak to start league play has boosted Xavier to 11-5 and into first place in the league. It hasnt boosted them enough yet to register in the Matrix. But they’re close. They are the first team out of the matrix and are on about a third of the mock brackets. After playing Dayton, Xavier matches up with Temple. The next five days will go a long way in telling us what kind of position Xavier will be in for the rest of the season. Dayton, meanwhile, is a nine-seed and near unanimous selection. Does the A10 have three bids up for grabs which the set of contenders will just play hot potatoe with all season? Or, is there room for more?
Other A10 games to keep an eye on today include Rhode Island at Fordham (2:00, URI -17). URI is a matrix 1-seed and just dropped 100 points on St Joe’s in their last time out. Now Fordham is a last place team, but dont forget URI positioned themselves for a bid late into the regular season, but upsets down the stretch against the bottom part of the league popped their bubble.
Lasalle at Richmond (4:00, Rich -9). The Spiders are among the last four out. LaSalle was a team I thought to be a darkhorse in this league when the season began. They’ve struggled to a 9-7 mark, but a win today not only minimizes the candidacy of Richmond, but also gives LaSalle a 3-1 league mark. Darkhorse status regained, perhaps?
UMass at Temple (2:00, Temple -15). The Owls are hovering in lock status ar a 5-seed and unanimous selection. Temple has made the field the last two seasons by virtue of winning the automatic bid in the league tournament. If they keep winning this month, they probably wont need those type of heroics to get into the field.
There are plenty of other games across the country today that will impact the eventual shape of the Bubble we will soon be talking about. I’m not going to hit all of them, but here’s a smattering of some of the more compelling ones in my mind.
Louisville at Pitt, noon, ESPN Full Court. Pitt -2
Pitt is surging. Left for dead after being run off the MSG floor by the Indiana Hoosiers five weeks ago, the Panthers haven’t lost since, reeling off seven wins in a row and rising into the top-20 of the polls. Their three-game road sweep to start the month against Syracuse, Cincy and UConn has the new-look Panthers in familiar territory: Big East contenders and a lock for the field. It’s their visiting foe today that suddenly have a lot on the line on a game to game basis. It’s hard to believe Louisville could be in trouble with a 12-5 record, 3-1 in Big East play. But, they have a pair of damning losses to UNC Charlotte and Western Carolina hanging on their resume. Then there is the precedence we saw last season during Big East play, when the rigors of the conference slate cannabolized the bid prospects of decent Notre Dame and Georgetown teams. Could Louisville be such decent team this season? Given their consensus 11-seed and one-third off mocks already leaving them out, you can see how far a protracted losing streak could push them down the pecking order. Personally, if I were doing a bracket, the Cards would not only be in it, but they wouldn’t face banishment with a loss today. But losses can pile up in a hurry in the Big East and the Cards would need to finish January strong to feel safe the rest of the way.
Notre Dame at Cincy. ESPN U, 4:30. Cincy -5
Sticking with the Big East, we have the Matrix 10 seed Cincy hosting Notre Dame one of the last four teams to get axed from the field. Despite being in the field, the Bearcats are on less than half the brackets. Despite being out of the field, the Irish are only on four less brackets than Cincy. Their places on the perch could swap with an Irish win. We mentioned above the Big East cannabalizing each other’s bids and surely the loser today might be headed towards the fate. For both, it would be deja vu. The Bearcats have been a feisty out for a couple of seasons, but the weight of the Big East season proved too much to get enough wins to make the field. We all recall Notre Dame’s losing streak last January into February that destroyed their candidacy. Those memories will be fresh in the players mind as this one plays out.
Texas Tech at Kansas, 1:45, ESPN2.KU -21
The Red Raiders are the second team out of the Matrix field. Going into Lawrence to and springing the upset would do wonders for their candidacy. They have a guady record and a win ehre would also give them one the season’s most impressive wins by anyone. They are only in 15 mock fields, but they would be close to unanimous during the next round of updates should they beat Kansas. They wouldnt lose that spot unless an extended Big 12 losing streak plagues them the rest of the winter.
Cal at Washington. 2:30, FSN. UW -1.5
This is not the year to fall 2-4 in Pac 10 play. That’s the spot preseason favorite Washington will be in if they drop this home game against Cal. The Bears, meanwhile, are in first place, which gives them the inside track to apparently the league’s only bid this season. The overall Matrix still has two Pac-10 teams, conviently Cal and UW. Cal is a 9-seed and UW is a 10-seed. Neither have unanimous support and the Huskies are barely in half of the brackets. You almost have to let another month of games to play out before you can stamp this league’s ceiling at two bids, let alone relegate it to dreaded one-bid status. But, a UW loss today could point towards that direction.
LSU at FLorida. 8:00, ESPN Full Court. Fla -11
It’s hard the believe the Gators havent made the final cut since winning back-to-back titles. A third straight year out of the NCAAs remains a strong possibility, despite some strong early season showings. A stronger SEC will help their case. But, it can also undo it if the losses pile up. The Gators currently are on a losing streak. They need to stop it before it mars everything they’ve do so far. Beating LSU would be nothing more than taking care of business. But you can only win the game in front of you and the Gators need to tuck this one away or face confidence issues the rest of the way. Florida currently sits as a 12-seed, but only 20 out of 39 mocks have them in the field. They still have to play a lot of teams they werent able to beat last year. We’re tuning in to see if they can begin to turn things around before that stretch.
Portland at St Marys. 10:00 ESPN U. St Mary’s -8.5
Remember Thanksgiving weekend when Portlan cut a swath through the Anaheim Classic field before losing in the finals to West Virginia? They seemed a good bet then to challenge Gonzaga and nab a second bid for the West Coast Conference. Its been a bumpy ride in the six-plus weeks since. The Pilots have gone just 5-5 and bad losses to Portland State and Idaho has squandered the good will from November. St. Mary’s meanwhile has been streaking the right way, but saw those times screech to halt Thursday night against the Zags. Their eye popping 15-2 record only has them as a Matrix 12-seed, however. I think the WCC has a decent chance of a second bid and an at-large invite to someone other than the Zags. Teams looking to get onto the bubble and eliminate the immediate competition sit squarely on Portland’s side tonight.
In other mid major news, the Missouri Valley and Colonial Athletic Association are also buckinf for multi bid status. In the MWV, Northern Iowa projects as the champion and a Matrix 8-seed. Wichita State is in the mix, but sit as the eighth last team out. A tough road contest against Creighton, even if it isnt a vintage Bluejay team looms later today. If the Shockers or any other MVC team wants a legit claim at an at large, they need a strong MVC that includes road wins at stops like Omaha. In the Colonial, William and Mary is the projected champ du jour and a Matrix 12-seed. Traditional power Old Dominion, a team thats made five straight postseasons including 2 NCAA appearances, is the sixth team out of the field. WM hosts Hofstra tonight and ODU hosts Drexel.
