Bowl Chronicles: National Championship Game Edition

Well, here we are at the end of the line. After more than four months of being entertained and engaged by the greatest sport in the world, the college football season comes to a close tonight. And, with it, a hot bowl season over here at the Just Cover Blog. We’re 20-12-1 against the spread in our Bowl Chronicle series. Had you wagered to $100 per pick, you would be up $680, which is nice. But, we’ve been splitting picks up between single and double plays and if you’ve followed us to the letter and wagered to win $100 per unit on each pick, you would be up a cool $1,420. Happiness is paying for your Christmas shopping bills through bowl winnings.

Enough bragging. We have one big game left. And, we want to end on a winning note. Admittedly, nobody needs to go to the window tonight to add to the excitement. I mean the national championship is on the line. But, what kind of silly sap doesnt want a little action riding on the big game. So, for one last time, lets Book It during this college football season.

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama vs Texas. Lines, Bama -4.5, O/U 46

What a matchup. Brand names. Historic powers. Great college players all over the roster. Future NFL Pro Bowlers. Everyone knows the burnt orange of Texas and crimson, white numbered helmets of Alabama. Texas Fight. Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer. Hook ‘Em Horns. Roll Tide Roll. This game features old school powers who remain current day elite programs. I can not wait to watch this one tonight.

It’s also a great contrast in style. In Texas, you have the new school, spread the field, short passes that demands their hotshot QB  dissect a defense. In Alabma, you have the old school, pro style, no frills power running game, spearheaded by a Heisman winning tailback. Both are strong across both lines. Both have plenty of talent to combat the others style and system.

What’s fascinating is that one of Bama’s prime advantages, its run defense and the presence of Mt Cody in the middle, might not have a huge impact on what Texas wants to do. Fact is, this team doesnt look to run the football. They wont try plunging their tailback into the line, they dont care about that. Heck, QB Colt McCoy will likely end up leading the team in rushing tonight and if he nets something like 60 yards, the Horns will be on the positive side of the scoreboard. Instead, the Bama front needs to raise their game and apply the pressure in the passing game. Everybody expects the Tide to be able to do, based on what Nebraska and Suh did to them in the Big 12 title game. But, I dont think Bama’s DL is as good overall as the Huskers, and they’re not the across the board pass rushing unit Nebraska is. I think McCoy can get things rolling tonight. I have a sneaky suspicion, he grabs the MVP tonight, an award much better than the Heisman he may have lost that night he became Suh’s ragdoll.

However, on the other side of the ball, one of Texas strength’s will surely be tested. Did you know they had the #2 rush defense in the land? However, in the Big 12, they dont face too many high end rushing attacks. Those numbers were accumulated against a lot of sub top-50 rushing offenses. Those numbers will be tested against one of the best smashmouth running teams in the land. Bama’s tailback won the Heisman. And, yet, Ingrahm might not even be the best tailback on his team, despite winning the hardware from the Downtown Athletic Club. Trent Richardson is a beast. He’s bigger and even fast than Ingrahm. It will be interesting to see just how many touches he gets. It’s hard to see Bama losing if this kid’s involved a lot in the offense. This is far and away the best rushing offense the Horns will have faced Will those strong numbers hold up? If so, they win. If not, they lose.

In the end, I like Texas Fight over Roll Tide Roll in this game. Here are my reasons.

One, the Heisman Trophy Jinx. Since the mid-1970s, the trophy winner’s team have regularily failed to cover the number in their bowl game. It’s become a severe jinx this decade to be a Heisman winner in the BCS Title Game. I hate fading history, so I wont.

Two, and this will get a few howls, but I think Mack Brown is a better coach the Nick Saban. I think, especially in the underdog role, that Mack can adjust better. And, as a result, I think Texas can survive an early knockout punch from Bama and not waver. I worry if Texas lands a big play early on, say Shipley taking a run and catch to the House, with how Saban and his team will react. I just think the Horns adjust better during the game. Both will be uber prepared tonight, but i think Mack and company wont be stubborn tonight to changeup whereas Saban might be too stubborn. I might be way past my skiis with that analysis. By all means, flame away. I could be pull of shit. 50/50.

Three, the Longhorns are 27-13 ATS when catching points.

Four, last I checked Texas recruits better than anybody in the country. They have more than enough talent to compete and beat Alabama. I mean its almost comical listening to people who think this is somehow a mismatch. I dont get it. Over the weekend, everytime I heard somebody say that TCU should be playing in the title game and will roll Boise, I felt compelled to add more to my Boise bet. That worked out well. Since then, every time I hear somebody say things like Bama has a better chance at blowing the Horns out than Texas does at winning, even by a point, I feel compelled to back the truck up even more on the Burnt Orange. 

Five, Texas will play loose tonight for the first time all season long. This was their goal. They knew one loss would screw them and after last year it was all about being perfect from September through December 5. They are here and all the pressure is on Alabama, as the preordained winner. Texas plays loose. Bama plays tight. I have feeling the Tide will make the crucial mistake as a result and Texas wont.

Six, Texas has the better QB. I’ll take that everytime in a big game.

And that’s where the rubber meets the road. Teams like Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee moved the ball very effectivelyon the Tide via the air. But, something always seemed to happen to keep these teams down. Garcia at USC turned the ball over. Florida’s wideouts let them down. The Voles lacked the overall firepower on the perimeter to get points out of the passing game. I dont think any of those issues plague the Horns tonight. McCoy wont make red zone mistakes. Shipley will make the plays on the receiving end. And, I never worry about the talent level in any section of the field for a team like Texas, who really along with USC is team of the decade when it comes to recruiting. They will put up the points tonight that those other teams could not in tight games with the Tide. That will make them the National Champions. But, I will take the points, just to be safe.

The Pick: Texas +4.5, 1 Unit……Underdogs had a nice thing going in BCS Title Games, going 6-2 straight up. But, SEC favorites have bucked that trend the last two years with wins and covers. I think we revert back to the underdog this year. This isnt a knock on Alabama. I think this is a coin flip game that will be decided by a field goal either way. The line is inflated thanks to the public perception of Bama beating the mighty Gators and the Huskers barely getting by Nebraska. Now that game day is here, folks are seeing that at the line has already come down from 5 to 4.5. Expect it to be 4 or even 3.5 by kick off. I’m seeing a 23-20 final score.

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