When the Fiesta Bowl kicks off tonight between Boise State and TCU, gamblers are going to have a tough call to make. Both these clubs have been a bettors dream. Boise State performed far and away better than any other program this decade when it came to covering the spread. They 62-percent covering rate this decade easily outpaces Iowa, the team in the #2 slot with a 58-percent cover rate. People love betting Boise and the chalk. During the 2004, I got a chance to spend a season behind the scenes with a street book. We got killed so much on late night Boise action that season that we stopped letting people leave messages up until kickoff and closed all of the betting when we shit phones down at 7:00. We just could afford to allow people to keep playing Boise up through the late, late night kickoff. Current head coach Chris Peterson has more than furthered those numbers going 28-18-2 ATS in his tenure, with those numbers trending upwards. The Broncos are 16-7-1 ATS the last two seasons. Not to be outdone are the TCU Horned Frogs. They’ve been one of the best chalk investments in the whole game in recent seasons. In the last five seasons, TCU is 33-16 ATS. Like Boise, those numbers have been on the uptick during more recent times. The Frogs are a sparkly 15-5 ATS as chalk the last two seasons, 7-3 this season.
This is like picking between hot women, there cant be a wrong answer, right? Actually, there can be. One of these pointspread monsters will go down tonight, burning cash for their investors along the way. You have to pick one of these teams. Better choose wisely. This is like finally having to decide whether or not to end it with the girl you’ve been seeing at college or the girl back home you’re dating. Eventually, they will meet in something called a Fiesta Bowl and force your hand. I hate it when worlds collide.
Of course, I’m not the only one bummed out about worlds colliding. A lot folkjs, including some of the players on these teams had hoped for a shot at the Florida’s of the world in this bowl game. There is disappointment that instead of a David vs Goliath game that our sports world seems to crave, we get this clash of mid-major powers. Me? I’m disappointed that two hisotrically awesome ATS teams are playing and that I cant pick both. But, outside of that sphere, I’m not too bummed out about this matchup.
During the 2004-05 and 2008-9 bowl seasons, the top two mid major powers were paired in a bowl game and the results were among the best games played that year. In the 2004 Liberty Bowl undefeated Boise played 11-1 Louisville, the final year the Cards were in CUSA and not the Big East. Louisville won a tremendously played back and forth game 44-40. Last season, it was the unbeaten Broncos again, this time facing off against 11-1 TCU in the Poinsetta Bowl. A nailbiting 17-16 Horned Frog decision had fans on edge all game. If tonight’s game can match those two as far as drama and closeness go, then I will be a happy college football fan.
Boise lost both of those games, but covered the spread each time. No reason to think it wont play out close to the same way. These teams were separated by a mere point last season. While the teams are different–each team had to makeover some positional units this past offseason–I dont think TCU has made some sort of leap into a new stratosphere, leaving Boise in the dust. I think either team can win this game tonight. I feel like taking the touchdown head start is playing it smart, figuring these are even teams who will again play close to a draw like they did last bowl season.
Tonight is the last Monday Night Football game of the season. Between the opening Monday night of the college season on Labor Day weekend, the NFL season and now tonight, we’ve had 19 Mondays made beautiful thanks to football. It’s going to be a long offseason. Boise State will ring in the next round of legit Monday Night Football when they open the 2010 regular season with Virginia Tech in Atlanta on Labor Day Monday. TCU also plays a big name foe on a nuetral field to open next season, when they take on Oregon State in the Jerry Jones Dome. But, for now, they have each other squarely in their sights. Its the last real Monday Night football game for months. Might as well watch and gamble on it, right?
So, how to pick between two consistent moneymakers? Both teams have great OOC wins. Boise thumped Oregon to continue their dominance over the Oregon Pac 10 schools. TCU went on the road and eased by Clemson. That’s wins over the Pac 10 champ and ACC runner-up for those keeping score at home. For both teams, they will be playing the toughest defense they have faced all season. In the end, I think the motivation coming from revenge gives Boise State an advantage. Plus, they get to play a bit if the disrespect card as it seems much of the program angst for playing this game instead of a bigger fish is coming from the TCU side. One team in complaining about who they are playing. The other one wants revenge for the only loss they’ve suffered the last two seasons. I’ll take the latter each time.
The Pick: Boise State +7.5, 2 Units……much has been made at hoe the TCU defense shut down the Boise offense last December. I’m certain the Peterson dwelled on those failures all off season. He has a strong enough offensive mind that I’m sure he has kicked himself a few times wishing he had tried this or that. Well, he gets his chance tonight. I think he’s got something planned for TCU that will keep the Frogs on their heels until they adjust. I personally dont think this game gets decided by anything more than a field goa. I’ll take Boise, the best ATS team of the last decade, with the revenge motivation to begin this decade is usual fashion: a point spread cover.
