Monthly Archives: January 2010

Bubble News: First Sunday Without Football Edition (And Pick$!)

January 31, 2010
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I’ve had a heartbreaking month of college hoops. I havent buckled down into religiously watching the whole nation, but I have watched, with anticipation and hope, every single minute of Indiana and Michigan basketball since their league seasons began, coincidentally, and perhaps in foreshadowed-bad-karma fashion, against each other on New Year’s Eve. They are my two favorite teams, close to my heart, after all.  Neverminding any backstory  required to explain how that bizarre dual fanship has formed over the years, rest assured this month has totally wrenched my gut and punched my dong. Both clubs have had tremendous moments, but they’ve been meted out by a bounty of near misses and snatching defeat from the arms of victory outcomes.

It hasnt been all bad. The Wolverines and Hoosiers are a combined 15-5 ATS since league play started. And, if you haven’t figured it out yet, I not only like to gamble on sports, but encourage betting on your teams games. So, there’s been some Maize and Blue and Cream and Crimson profit to start 2010. I didnt have either in their Saturday covers yesterday, but i went to the window nine times in favor of one of these teams during the last month and not once did it net a losing ticket. (FYI: Just about each pick was touted at the JCB, so dont miss whatever February bandwagons we Book)

Ok, so I cant bitch one bit. But it did prove revealing that I still have a true heart and that sports losses remain impactful on me in a heartfelt, idealistic fan level. I have been downright mopey in the aftermath of my teams going 3-6 straight up in “close games.” While they mastered the art of losing, but covering, with each time my spirits dimmed, drowning out the cash register rings. I could not go a  stretch a a few days without one of them team bringing me to the brink of celebration only to drop me and my fan brethern on our collective heads.

Indiana chokes away a 13-point halftime lead at home and losses to Illinois. Hours later I watch the Wolverines copy that in a loss at Crisler to Northwestern, a result I still havent been able to explain. Saturday, the Wolverines are nuetered by the sudden Manny Harris suspension. Sunday, the Hoosiers get blown out at home to Iowa, a loss that caused a lot of soul searching from folks regarding the reality of the rebuilding project. The Kailon Lucas show and DeSeans lip out proved an effective 1-2 punch that knocked me out of the college hoops world for a few days earlier this week. Just when I thought it was safe to step back in the ring, Indiana losses at the buzzer to Illinois yesterday after playing brilliant for 40 minutes. It was the most exciting and nerve racking three minutes of the Tom Crean era, but a stomach punch loss nevertheless.

The result? A February with a lot less stakes on the line where the teams postseasons hopes are concerned. A little more luck and IU could all but have an NIT bid in their grasp. That equals a  huge step forward after a 6-win, 1-17 Big 10 campaign a year ago. We’d be having daily posts at the JCB reminding everyone just how smart we were by predicting an IU 5-4 home record or better in Big 10 play. Instead, the Hoosiers are 2-2 in those games with a lot of hard ones ahead and a better than .500 record needed the rest of the way  just to finish .500 overall. The season will close out just like the second year of Michigan’s football rebuilding job did this past fall. Progress totally obscured and, in some minds, totally wiped out by a string of losses piling up to end the year. Read more »

Basketball Picks: Tuesday, January 26

January 26, 2010
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We’re back for another night of college basketball capping. We’ve been h-o-t since coming back from hoop hiatus a little more than a week ago: 15-6-2 the last 10 days. That gives the JCB an official 23-18-2 record in college hoops. We’re currently up 7.5 units. It’s freezing outside. I’ve worked hard at the office and the gym today. Let’s unwind with an adult beverage (or two or three) and gamble on a game (or two or three).

Michigan +4 over Michigan State, Half Unit…..Michigan is 7-2 ATS in their last nine, 11-4 in their last 15 as an underdog and 12-6 ATS against the Big 10. I’ll risk a little on the home dog tonight.

NCState +1 over UNC, Half Unit…..might as well go out on two shaky looking limbs in bigtime rivalry action tonight. The Pack looked awful at Maryland, but they wont be the last team to get run off the the home floor of the Terps. Back home, I think the club is recharged and can expose the inconsistencies that have illed the Heels. It’s the most beatable UNC team in a long time. If not tonight, when NC State? We’ll find out what direction the Heels go from here, but I think they have one more loss in them tonight before turning it around.

Northwestern +12 over Minnesota, 1 Unit……Both teams have bigtime emotional issues to overcome after draining games on Saturday. I’ll take the one with the positive momentum and vibes, especially with a dozen point head start. This will not be a repeat of last week’s debacle in Columbus. The Gophers defense has been shaky in Big 10 play and without Al Nolan their obvious speed advantage on the perimeter is diminished. Minnesota will win, but this game will be in single digits.

Baylor -2 over Kansas State, 2 Units……I love KState. But, I love Baylor. Both programs have been a lot of fun to watch evolve and breakthrough the last couple of years. In the end, the Wildcats guards have strugled recently. I think that’s enough of a difference in a hostile environment. Besides, how do you not take a short home favorite in Big 12 plays. Home teams have been Uber Dominant in the league for years now. That’s enough to give us our first Double Play in hoops of the season. Woot!

Will Good Michigan Show Up Tonight?

January 26, 2010
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The question tonight is which Michigan team will show up?  The one that beat UConn and and nearly stole a game from Wisconsin in Madison. Or the scatterbrained defensive outfit from Saturday that couldnt stop a single Purdue possession when it mattered, hopelessly playing without leading scorer Manny Harris, suspended for unsportsmanlike conduct in practice. Let’s hope its the first version.

Michigan State is town, so Good Michigan had better show up. It’s All or Nothing this evening against the Spartans. The team’s flat-lined postseason hopes need the juice that upsetting a top-10  team can provide. It would be the second resume win over an 11-day span. With a more than manageable February slate, the door to a bid becomes ever so sligfhty more ajar. I felt they needed to get one win out of difficult three-game stretch that ends tonight in order to maintain the momentum from the UConn win. Tonight represents their third and final chance to complete the first step of the three-step plan to get them back into tournament consideration.

Good Michigan needs to show up for the sake of the program. Its a fragile team. A beatdown at the hands off the Spartans might send this ship reeling to the rocks of no return. But, if Good Michigan can show up with the efficient offense and killer defense they had exhibited during the Big 10 season prior to Saturday, they could spring the upset and set a positive tone for the final 10 games.

Good Michigan needs to show up for Manny Harris. Check that, Manny Harris needs to lead the charge up the hill on behalf of Good Michigan. He’s become a maligned star this season in Ann Arbor. We’ve questioned his leadership, shot selection, defense and overall state of mind throughout the season. Now, we’re questioning his relationship with his teammates in the wake of whatever incident occurred on the practice floor last Friday that earned him a one-game benching. He has gone from beloved to beleaguered in the span of one year. How will Manny play tonight? That’s another open question heading into the event. If Good Manny shows up, Good Michigan will surely follow.

Head Coach John Beilein needs Good Michigan. Year Three of his regime has been as rocky. The goodwill from last year’s suprise and long-awaited tournament appearance is evaporating. There is segment of the fanbase who believes this isnt the man for the job. And, as incorrect as they are, a poor showing to the upstate Spartans will only fuel the fire of their discontent. Maybe Beilein doesnt need Good Michigan tonight. His job is more than safe. Maybe I need Good Michigan to show up so I dont get lulled into battling Internet Idiots crying Unacceptable and Shameful.

Good Michigan also needs to show up in advance of future recruiting battles. Michigan, at some point, has to prove it can compete with MSU. Beilein is 0-2 against Izzo as head man in Ann Arbor. Local recruits might be keeping tabs on that. Notably, slick shooting guard Trey Zeigler, who is being wooed by both schools along with other high end suitors.  Ziegler wont be comitting anywhere until April and one game wont sway his opinions. But, a Michigan win could erase whatever lingering doubts he and other possible recruits may have about being able to thrive and beat bigtime foes in the Beilein system. Read more »

Bubble News: Big Ten Trio Jostles For Outside Position

January 26, 2010
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When the weekend began, three Big 10 teams crowded the Bracket Matrix’s group of final eight teams left out of its consensus field: Minnesota, first out; Northwestern, fourth out; and Illinois, fifth out. All were struggling to standout in the minds of mock bracketologists, each netting somewhere from just less than a one-quarter to just a shade under half of the mocks approval for entry to the field. Over the weekend, the big winner of these three teams was clearly Northwestern who beat Illinois, while Minnesota let a huge home win and comfortable lead slip away en route to a loss to Michigan State.

Despite poor shooting and foul trouble from key players, Northwestern snapped a 11-game losing streak to the Illinois Saturday night in Evanston. The Wildcats piled up some ugly numbers throughout the contest, but had enough in their bag to spring the win to set off a state of joy after six years of losses to the Illini.

Even though their top guns struggled to hit the broad side of a barn for most of Saturday night, the Wildcats perservered thanks to its effort on the offensive glass and holding on to the basketball. The Cats grabbed 10 offensive board’s to the Illini’s 4 and only turned it over 7 times, while the Illini committed 15 turnovers. Those numbers helped Northwestern overcome  a severe difference in shooting accuracy. The Illini struggled keeping up with the motion and precise cuts of the Cats’ Princeton offense and the fouls began piling up, eventually leading to a +14 margin in free throw makes. Both John Shurna and Jeremey Nash scored 9 points each from the charity stripe alone, while the Illini as a team only had 10 combined makes.

Enough of the inside the box score stuff, let’s talk heart. My heart. I enjoy watching the Wildcats play, and I am pulling for them to make their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance. At least twice a game that old school offense of theirs clicks on full throttle, and its a thing a beauty. Not to mention an avalanche of points. This worked against the Illini. A big run out of the gates helped Northwestern start the game, then a 15-2 run late in the second turn turned a defecit into the lead for good.  Shurna and Nash can fill it up from the behind the arc, Juice Thompson is a good point guard and freshmen Drew Crawford seems to make MVP-like plays down the stretch of games. They’re not a very deep team. They basically roll their starting five out there and that’s it. Will they have enough gas to get to March with a bid in their pocket? We’ll see.

But, they’re talking tournament in Evanston and the Cats are getting closer and closer to a bid. They didn’t have a quarter of the votes a week ago, even after their home win over Purdue. Another resume win later (and, yes, despite the beatdown they suffered in Columbus in between the Purdue and Illinois wins), however and they’re getting close to half the vote.  Now 18 out of 46 mocks is nothing that impressive, but look deeper in the current Bracket Matrix standings. More than half their votes have come from the two dozen mocks that have updated since Saturday. They dont have the strongest schedule down the stretch. They wont have too many chances for more resume wins and, as a result, will need to come into the barn at better than 9-9 in the Big 10. They have road games at Minnesota and Michigan State to close January. They’ll need a strong run from February on, but they have the schedule (2 games apiece with IU, Iowa and Penn State and home games with Minnesota and Michigan) and the starting unit to pull it off.

Meanwhile, after the loss, the Illini spent the rest of the weekend in duck and cover mode.With the dust settling, it’s threat level midnight for their tournament hopes, right?  For now, the Bracket Matrix more than agrees. The Illini’s support has completely evaporated. Only seven mocks still have them in their field. Worse, just one of the 25 mocks updated since the weekend picked Illinois. For sure, that deserves a Yikes!  Read more »

Championship Sunday: NFL Final Four (Player Prop Update for Jets/Colts)

January 24, 2010
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Storylines are all over the place as the NFL holds its Final Four this afternoon.

In the AFCG between the Colts and Jets, some have isolated 18 key storylines, naturally symetrical with Peyton’s jersey numbers. Peyton Manning, the greatest QB the last decade, is going for his second Super Bowl apperance.Everybody has talked about the jinxed or woebegone histories of the Jets, Vikings and Saints, but dont forget the Bad Mojo the Colts have to overcome as well. We all know what happened the last time this much stack was on the line when these franchises met.

 The Cinderella Jets are trying to make their first Super Bowl since that afore-hinted at Super Bowl III and the Joe Willy Namath days. Their coach is every bit a quote machine as their star QB was back then on that championship run. The Colts could have eliminated the Jets a month ago, but pulled their starters out, a move that helped win the Jets the game. Now, they’re in their face again with a lot more on the line. The longer New York stays in this game, the more fatal that move, controversial even at the time because of the Colts undefeated season to the point, grows.

 One of the best defenses in the league, known for blitzing and bringing pressure from all spots going against Manning, a QB known to have happy feet and wilt against just these types of defenses in big spots. Watching Manning audible in response to Rex Ryan’s defense first moves out of the huddle might be like listening to the cadence of a Russian novel. Insert its a chess mate analogy right here. Manning versus Darielle Reivas might be the best one on one matchup of the day. How many times will he challenge him? I said last week if Ed Reed got his hands on the ball twice, the Ravens would win. He got it once, but fumbled the ball away. Advantage: Colts. The assertion still stands today:  If Reivas gets his hand on a couple of balls today, the Jets will be in the Super Bowl. The Jets are making a change on the opposite corner, benching Lito Sheppard. You know Manning is going to test early on whether or not this is a good move or not. Can Sanchez become the first rookie QB to qualify for the Super Bowl. Or, does he throw up an inconsistent, turnover marred game the way Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco did in AFCCG appearances in their rookies seasons. Both teams lost and failed to cover the spread, by the way.

In the NFC, we get the matchup that from about mid-October on, looked like it would be for all the NFC marbles. With the exception of the late love affair the loudmouth talking heads had with the Cowboys, the Saints and Vikings have been 1-2 in the NFC from the get go. This is a game I wanted to see sometime in the playoffs. It only seems right that its in this spot.

 New Orleans. Perhaps the most downtrodden NFL franchise in league history. A year after qualify the Cardinals, who are in the downtrodden team photo with the Saints, can the NFC put another surprise qualifier. This is a franchise that has won just three playoff games in its history. They are a step away from the Super Bowl. Throw in all the team means to the city in their post-Katrina recovery and this could be a truly emotional day in the history of the city, let alone the franchise. It’s also a chance to finally exact some revenge after the Vikes thumped the Saints 22 years ago in the franchise’s first ever playoff game. Minnesota hopes its ‘Who Dat? We Dat!’ all over again.  The Vikings, meanwhile, lost four Super Bowls in the 1970s and havent been there since. They’ve lost three NFCC games since then, including a heartbreaker 11 years to Atlanta after spending the year as the best team in football. These are two tragic NFL franchises. Karma and home field advantage favors the Saints, but does history favor the Vikings today? Read more »