Monthly Archives: December 2009

Chicago Bears are the new lock?

December 13, 2009
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bears

Green Bay -4 at Chicago:   I think Chicago decided to pull out (TWSS) and give up for the year.  It’s at -4 right now at sportsbook.com and even with all the snow and crap in Chitown the Pack will put up far better numbers then the LOLbears, BOOK IT.  Burt Urlacker’s injury, or is it Brian?  No idea, Burt is way cooler.  Anyway, and his lack of hair has brought this team to it’s knees in embarrassment.  It might have to do with their new QB also.  I wonder how “Sexy Rexy” feels about this.  GO WOODSON!

COLTS vs. John Fucking Denver +7.  It may be a conspiracy, but because the Colts locked up their division already they may start PEYUN and put in the back up for the rest of the game.  Meaning +7 to Denver could be a Jamie Mac Lock of the week. I dunno.  Those Colts are sure douches when it comes to shit like this.  But, without Dungy they could decide to go 16-0 like Tom Brady.

Cincy @ Brett Favre – 6.5:  I don’t think Cincy is to into this season anymore.  They didn’t cover the spread vs. the Lions and Their QB is hurt, kind of, sort of.  Favre and his team got their asses smoked vs. Steve Breaston so I can see them coming back and winning by a couple of lucky almost picked off TD’s from Favre.

Carolina +13 @ New England:  The Pats are undefeated at home but by the way they have been playing I don’t see them covering a double digit spread.  Carolina may be bad, but they are not terrible.  I see them keeping it close and the Pats winning by an easy TD. 

Philly @ Giants UNDER 44:  It’s going to be cold and raining in Jersey for this game.  Little Peyton isn’t good and we all know about his injury (plantar fasciitis).  The Phillys will be sporting a dog fight (LOL) with Mike Vick playing 2 or 3 snaps at QB.  Look for this Sunday Night match up to bore you to tears. Under Babby, under.

Sunday NFL Week 13

December 6, 2009
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I might as well make a triumphant return to NFL posting with the way the weekend has been going.  The JCB could use some of that luck the runneth over into its NFL Cup. Despite judicious selecting, the blog is a mere 20-19-1 this season. A winning record, yes, but thanks to juice its NOT GOOD ENOUGH to net any profit. If you are the sort to play every game the same amount, the above record puts you in the hole a little bit less the amount of your standard unit of play. So, that’s a bummer. But the good news is you’re a winning record today away from wiping that deficit out and getting back to the even mark heading into the final quarter of the regular season. There are worse positions to be in, so let’s go get a 4-3 record today, people.

Before that, a quick check of the standings to track one of my favorite trends: the annual 50-percent turnover rate in the NFL playoff qualifications. It’s the first Sunday of December and we are heading to another spot on switch out of half of last year’s playoff teams for new blood this coming January. Let’s pull out the dreaded, ‘If the season ended today,‘ and take a look at the playoff brackets as it stands today.

NFC: New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas and Arizona would win the divisions and Philadelphia and Green Bay the Wild Cards.  The Saints, Cowboys and Packers would be new teams in this year. The Giants, Falcons and Panthers would be teams from the 2008 field on the outside looking in. The Giants exclusion would be noteworthy. Not only were they Super Bowl contenders when the season began, but in this era of constant postseason transition, they’ve qualified for the playoffs four years in a row.  The Panthers are out of it, but the Giants and Falcons, at 6-5, are both a game behind the Eagles and Packers in the wild card chase. The importance of today’s Falcons/Eagles match is obvious. But with the Giants hosting the Cowboys today and the Packers hosting the Ravens on MNF tomorrow night, this entire picture could clear up in many different ways, so sit back.  One situation to keep an eye on: Dont write off the NFC West just yet. If the 49ers can get a road win at Seattle–where they won last season–and the Vikings beat the Cardinals tonight, then San Francisco will be within one game of division lead. They beat Arizona earlier in the year and the host the Cardinals next week on Monday Night Football.

AFC

Indianapolis, Cincinnati, San Diego and New England would get the divisions and Denver and Jacksonville would earn the Wild Cards. Thats four new teams–Bengals, Pats, Broncos, Jags. The Bengals and Pats look pretty secure to keep their divisional bids. But, those wild cars are anyone’s game with five games to go. Two of last year’s postseason teams on the outside looking in, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, are just a game back and the Steelers have tie breaking edges currently over both Denver and Jacksonville. The Titans and Dolphins are surging after winless starts. They’re in range at 5-6, but need to win a lot of games down the stretch and hope for doses of chaos to happen on the playoff bubble around them.  The 6-6 Jets and 5-6 Texans still have hopes and they would be new additions to the postseason. Read more »

13th time's a charm. I e-swear.

December 5, 2009
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CHIPS

CHIPS

bet 15.00 to win 150.00 Result: LOSER   (UPDATED)

CincinnatiU Vs. PittsburghU 12/05/09 (12:05 ET)  I’ve taken Cincy a few times this year and it usually pays off.  Pittsburgh does not scare me, they played like douche against ND and their coaches mustache is no match to the likes of Wilford Brimley. Cincy’s average winning margin (taking out their 70-3 win) is 12.9 points per game.  Their closest margin of victory was 2 vs. Uconn.  They arn’t f’ing around today though.  Pick: CincinnatiU -1.5  (LOST BY .5)

FresnoSt vs. Illinois 12/05/09 (12:30 ET)  This pick is for my pure hate towards Illinois.  They beat MICH at home after their shitty losing streak.  Fresno St. on the other hand is a decent team.  They can put up a lot of points and I’m pretty sure Zooker and his dumb ass team are not thirlled about playing today.  Pick: FresnoSt +2.5   (WIN)

NewMexicoSt vs.  BoiseSt 12/05/09 (15:00 ET)  BOISE #1!  Look out, Oregon is going to the Rose Bowl, a team that Boise St. beat earlier this year.  That alone should POWER them UP enough to blow this one out of the water to prove their BCS worth.  Look for them to put up  60 in 3 quarters.  E-book it!  Pick: Over 59  (LOST BY 10)

Texas vs. Nebraska 12/05/09 (20:05 ET)  Always a close match up between these to hillbilly schools.  Nebraska has one of the best defenses in the nation while Texas is a high scoring white jersey wearing hook um horns club.  Texas also likes to give up a lot of points which will keep Nebraska close all game.  If you  interested in this game think back to last year, ESPN had a half chub going for Colt McCoys GF and keep throwing her up on the screen.  Maybe she will be there again, so there’s always that.  What?  Nebraska +14 (Won by 13)

 More to come on the NFL.  Gotta go and buy some CHIPS! Read more »

Championship Saturday: The New New Year's Day (Updated Night Edition)

December 5, 2009
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(Night Games, below the intro. I wonder how many Trojan fans will show up at the Poinsetta Bowl?)

Sigh. We’re here. The final weekend of the season. It went so fast. There are so many teams out there that I havent seen yet, or want to see more of. But the amusement park of college football closes down after today, leaving us in the dust as we try to talk ourselves in basketball and hockey for the long, hard winter. So, lets try to have fun watching today. I think we’ve got some classics on deck today, so pour a drink and settle in.

What excited me about today is how retro the day feels. Championship Saturday is a decidedly modern invention. But, today feels like something from a generation or two ago. It feels like a high stakes, full of action and traditional New Year’s Day bowl blowout. This is what January 1 used to feel like. Not one, not two, but four or five major matchups. Two having direct impact on the final national title vote, with several others setting up the pecking order should a dose of chaos or two come with the primary games. Basically games all over the place, stopping the sporting world, with heavy stacks in the middle of all the tables.  These days, there arent really even a lot of games on New Year’s Day. This season, for example, there are as many games on New Year’s Even and January 2 as their are on New Year’s Day. We get a ton of football during the current setup of Bowl Week, but we dont have the juice anymore on New Year’s Day. I am not making a statement that either way is better. But, today takes me back to the old days when January One was a red letter day on the sports calendar. And I couldnt be more jacked up about.

I have a few picks for the early games. The good times have been rolling so far with a 3-0 record this weekend. I am still high on not only how fun the Civil War was, but how it played out almost exactly as I predicted. Hopefully, I will have some smart moments today.

Update #2

To quote Jay Trotter, I am having good day. On a nice winning streak since Thursday, the two 3:30 games are looking real good right now. Here’s hopinh tonight’s card is full of #4 horses.

Washington +7 over Cal……i have run hot and cold with UW this year. I like rocky relationships sometimes. Lets dance one more time Sarkisian. Read more »

MAC Championship: CHIPS/RAWRCATZ

December 4, 2009
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Championship Weekend rolls forward Friday night and stops in Detroit for the MAC Championship Game between Central Michigan and Ohio. On paper, this sucker looks like a mismatch, babby.

Central carries one of the best offenses in the land, orrchestrated by Dan LeFevour, one of the best signal callers in the country. They also have a good looking defense. Meanwhile, nothing that Ohio does really jumps of the page and screams, ‘wow, this is what the Bobcats are good at.’  Based on stat rankings, Central is rated anywhere from 30-50 spots higher than OU in a lot of key categories. The Chipewas have won all their league this year, winning by an average of 22 points with only one team staying within single digits. The Bobcats won seven league games, getting it done in close game after close game. I dont think anybody believes Ohio will win tonight (well, almost nobody) and its reflected in the line as oddsmakers have made Central a two-touchdown favorite in order to attract some action at least on the Bobcats.

Well, Vegas, Mission Accomplished.  You have me lured in. Your goal is to get action on both sides and you have successfully lured me into Ohio’s camp. I think they have the goods to push Central a little and at least come within this number. Now,   dont feel strongly about. I picked up two wins last night, and I am willing to wager a quarter of that (meaning, not even as high as my standard play) on Ohio tonight. It’s more of a season winding down, lets put even a little on all the remaining key games. Here is some of my reasoning.

All season, I have written about taking Phil Steele Most Improved Teams as an underdog. The Bobcats, #4 on his MIT list, was as profitable as anyone else on this list, going 4-1 ATS when catching points. They’re now 9-3-1 ATS as pups the last two years, so this core of players has proven an ability to outperform certain expectations.

I discount any analysis that begins with CMU has blown out their MAC slate, while OU struggled.  Mainly because I think the MAC East is much stronger than the West. Ohio winning it with a 7-1 league mark is impressive. It’s more balanced and better from top to bottom. I would take every MAC East team over all MAC West teams not nicknamed Chippewas straight up in a head-to-head game. This is a division the winner should have been 5-3 in, so OU’s 7-1 record needs to be respected. Frankly, their beat down of Temple last week was more impressive in than anything Central did during their respective conference slates. IMHE. Throw in the solid efforts OU gave when playing UConn and Tennessee back in non conference play and I dont think its as obvious as people say that CMU is a mismatch for OU.

I like OU’s back seven. Will they shutdown Lefevour? Uh, no. But, I think they can make it tough on him. They might find getting their yards as easy tonight, but I think OU can keep them out of the end zone enough, to where they can stay in range of them on the scoreboard and keep withing the spread. Overall, the Bobcats have permitted just 20 points per game in MAC games. I know thats not an awesome number, but nobody has really stepped on the field against them this year and found scoring touchdowns was an easy task. All they need to do is turn maybe two CMU TD drives into FG drives and then getting underneath a 2-td spread becomes easy. Read more »