Monthly Archives: December 2009

Bubble News: Out Of Conference Showdown Day Edition

December 18, 2009
By

(Programming Note: I bet you’re drooling to see the first installment of Bowl Chronicles, amirite!?!? Look for it to post tomorrow morning. We have a bowl doubleheader beginning at 4:30, but Im not sure if the Bowl Chronicle debut will be one or two posts. We’ll see how long it goes. In the meantime, enjoy another rousing edition of Bubble News as the last big day of the out of conference season tips off tomorrow.)

The college hoops schedule is always pretty sparse during the holidays. Next to nothing is on tap during the week of finals and, for the most part, teams schedule long breaks for their kids with maybe a holiday cupcake or two sprinkled in. It’s all about resting and recharging before the grueling conference seasons begins. There will be an occasional interesting game in the days before league games begin over new year’s weekend, but otherwise its a collgee basketball break for the time being.

The major exception to this is tomorrow. A huge schedule is setup that ought to satiate most college hoop junkies. There are close to two dozen intersectional games tomorrow between ranked teams or tournament invitee contenders that will surely have lasting ramifications into March. For example, there are four bigtime games tipping off during the 2:00 window, so make sure you have multiple TVs fired up and fresh batteries in the remot. Its the one last big out of conference showdown blowout. One last chance to put a scalp of note on your resume. And, I am sure, there will be an investment opportunity or two along the way. If so, I’ll do a small post tomorrow, but as as of this morning there arent any lines to chew on. It’ll be the first thing I check in the morning, though, so dont worry, we’ll be all over it. In the meantime, here’s a chronological tour of some of the many games I’ll be keeping an eye on.

Michigan at Kansas, noon, ESPN……..Michigan could right a lot of wrongs with a win over Kansas tomorrow. Good luck with that. Frankly, if Michigan can avoid the KU student section rocking that eerie Rockchalk Jawhawk chant until the closing seconds, then it would a success, if only because that would mean the Wolverines would be in it at the end with even a shot at winning. They’d also cover the spread as I expect this line to be more closer to 20 points than single digits. Michigan’s hope is their season-long shooting slump corrects itself  and the Wolverines at least revert back to last year’s accuracy. Jawhawk observers feel that uber frosh Xavier Henry will prove the difference tomorrow, so keep an eye on whether or not the Wolverines can somehow throw him off his game. My take on the game and Michigan wont be unique. They dont have a ton of firepower and, as a result, need all the defense they can muster. But, they’re struggling to find an on court replacement for last season’s defensive MVP, CJ Lee (not to mention his two most likely replacements off the bench, David Merritt and Kelvin Grady). It takes a long time to grasp Beilein’s defense and become effective within that framework. Give a talent like Darius Morris some time and eventually it will click. Dont be surprised if this kid comes along this winter and becomes an all-freshmen player in the Big 10. And, with that, I’ll have enough shot of the Maize and Blue Koolaid and move on to the other top games.

North Carolina at Texas, 2:00, ESPN………..The marquee matchup of the day. A pair of top-10 teams. 5-star prospects all over the court. You know a handful of these players will be lottery picks in the next few NBA drafts. Perhaps a record crowd at the Jerry Dome in Dallas will be watching. You might as well too. This is a Final Four matchup in December. I dont need to say anything more. If you like sports, you’re interested in this game. Early lean: I think the Horns ease past the Heels. Not a comfy win, but I’d lay a bucket or a trey in chalk with them just for the fun of it, if the line is that small tomorrow morning.

Stanford at Northwestern, 2:00, BTN………This would be considered a bad loss for Northwestern. Yes, you heard that right. A team that has never made the NCAA tournament would lose style points losing to this perennial hoops power in Stanford. Welcome to Pac 10  Basketball 2010!  A loss by the Cats wouldnt be fatal to say the least, but it might cut deeper than a mere flesh wound. Right now, it seems like every basketball pundit is ready to spend the winter calling the Cats a tournament caliber club. But, a loss to Stanford might have some of those meme setters chasing other pursuits. Read more »

The Odds Of Perfection

December 17, 2009
By

Two of the next three nights will feature NFL showdowns with both playoff and historic implications. Indianapolis travels to Jacksonville tonight while on Saturday night Dallas goes to New Orleans. Both games will be on the NFL Network.

In the AFC game, the Jags can go a long way towards securing a wild card birth with a win. It’s their final home game of the season, so a loss means they’d be forced to scramble for the postseason in front of unfriendly crowds. In the NFC, you dont need to look all that closely to see the noose tightening around Cowboys Coach Wade Phillips’ neck. The Boys remain in good shape to make the NFC tournament, but they need to start winning or else eventullay see the field pass them up. Dallas has lost two games to open December so all the talk is about another late season collapse. Nothing like playing the best team in the conference on the road when you’re trying to stop the bleeding. For the chalk in these games, its about maintaining their holds on home field advantage for the playoffs. Of course, for both the Colts and Saints there is also something more hisotric out there to chase: the elusive perfect season.

I decided several weeks ago that I would pull for both the Colts and Saints to run the table and meet each other as 18-0 behemoths in the Super Bowl. Mainly because it would rid us forever of genuflecting at the altar of the 1972 Dolphins. And, if both are 18-0 headed into that game, maybe, just maybe we wont have to deal with two weeks worth of Mercury Morris poetry. America wins in that scenario, people.

Thanks to the wonderful world of sports gambling, there are plenty of opportunities out there for you to win individually as the Colts and Saints attempt this parallel march towards perfection and the NFL record book. For example, you can wager that the Colts and Saints will play each in the Super Bowl, regardless of record, at a payout of 1.8 to 1. As far as Super Bowl matchups go, its considerable chalk. Vikings vs Colts at 3.5 to 1 and Saints vs Chargers aat 5 to 1 are the next in line as favored odds go for possible Super Bowl matchups. The longshots on this board are Cowboys-Ravens and Cowboys-Broncos, both of which net you 300 to 1 odds. Sadly, last year’s defending champs, and my personal favorite team, the Steelers arent even on the board anywhere. FML.

Getting back to good teams that are playing well, lets focus on the odds of the Colts and Saints running the table. All odds are per sportsbook.com.

Do you think either team can go 16-0? The Saints are actually favored to do so, meaning the odds are steeper and more expensive should you want to back them on 16-0 as opposed to betting they will lose one of their final three games.  Odds for Yes the Saints will go 16-0 are -120, meaning to win $100 you must wager $120. Conversely, No is just at -110 odds, not much cheaper, but technically it does make it the underdog line. Oddsmakers dont think the public will have much faith in the Cowboys, Bucs or Panthers to derail this train. Plus, with Minnesota hot on the Saints heels for the top overall seed, the Saints may have to play out the entire string with their first teamers. Read more »

Bubble News: Big 10 Edition

December 15, 2009
By

 Here we are smack in the middle of one of the most boring week’s of the sports calendar. College football is on hiatus until the bowl extravaganza begins. Due to finals, there is next to nothing in the way of college hoops scheduled all week long. If you can talk yourself into early season NHL game on Versus or a meaningless NBA game, then you might be able to find something, somewhere to your liking. Otherwise, reintroduce yourself to Network TV. Or get some Christmas shopping done.

Don’t fret, however. There is a big NFL game on Thursday night between Jacksonville and Indy. And by Saturday, your problems will be solved, with an  ecletic lineup of lower division title games, the first two bowl games, a big time lineup of college hoops that includes, among others, UNC/Texas and Duke/Gonzaga and an NFL showdown in primetime between the Saints and Cowboys capping off the night.

I’ll have a lot of football posts in the coming weeks, but let’s talk hoops right now. Big 10 style. With the lull underway until the various league seasons start, lets take an incredibly premature journey through the Bracket Matrix and see where the Big 10 teams stand with two weeks to go before the league battles begin.

Seven Big 10 teams currently make the opening cut. The Big East also has seven teams on the list with the ACC, SEC and Big 12 each having six. We’ll get into a national perspective in some other post. For now, lets take a tour of the Matrix, highlighting the Big 10 clubs.

Purdue, #1 seed. Other #1′s: Texas, Kansas, Kentucky

The Boilers are one of the Matirx’s four #1 seeds, along with Texas, Kansas and Kentucky. Wouldn’t an NCAA bracket with both UK and PU on the #1 line be pretty much close to a nightmare March for Hoosier fans? Yuck, says this one. The Boilers support on the top line, however is the weakest among this quartet, with only half of the early bracketologists giving Purdue a top seed. Despite my IU blood, I actually like this Purdue team. A lot. And, that forbidden love will likely show through as I follow and write about Big 10 hoops all winter. Two seasons ago, when the Baby Boilermakers emerged, they coverd 13 of 16 games during a Big 10 run, winning their boosters a lot of cash. Already this season, they are 5-3-1 ATS wih a pair of nice covers against Wake Forest in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge and last weekend on the road at Alabama. Despite being down double figures at one point, the Boilers still came back, won and covered the 6-point number. They have the most impressive win in the Big 10 with their nuetral site victory over Tennessee, a Matrix 3-seed. Before heading into the bulk of Big 10 play, Purdue faces West Virginia, a matrix 2-seed, on New Year’s Day. Read more »

Bama Backers, Beware The Heisman Jinx

December 14, 2009
By

So, I take it everyone out there did the right thing and put money on Texas, plus the points, over Alabama in the BCS Title Game? While the game remains 24 days away and there’s plenty of time to break it down even more, the deciding factor really took place Saturday night, when they awarded Alabama tailback Mark Ingram the Heisman Trophy. It may have been an historical first for Tide fans, but it also doomed their hopes, cursed now with the Heisman Jinx.

The college regular season has its Coulter/Krugman Curse in the Blog Poll. The Bowl Season’s annual spell of doom is the Heisman Jinx. The winner’s team rarely lives up to expectation. They’re a good team to bet against when their bowl game does get around to kicking off. Did you know that Heisman Winner teams are just 8-25-1 against the spread, a meager 27-percent success rate. Hey, this goes back to 1974 and Archie’s Griffin’s first of back-to-back trophies. Needless to say, the Buckeyes lost both Rose Bowls outright as favorites to the Pac 10 champ and a legend was born. This has pretty much incorporated my whole life, so I could have Quantum Leap’ed it at anytime and basically uttered ‘bet against the Heisman Winner’ and looked like a golden prophet from the future.

What Ingram is doing is fast becoming the norm. That being,  taking the Heisman burden with him into a BCS National Title Game. He will be the eighth one to do it this decade. His predecessors were not not profitable, going 1-6 ATS. Only USC’s wood shedding of Oklahoma behind 2004 winner Matt Leinhart proved to be a winning bet. The other six not only failed against the spot, but didn’t win the game either. Not a  winner, but no cover even in the lot.  Four failed as favorites, the roll Ingram’s Tide are in. Let’s take a tour of the title game damage left in the wake of winning the Heisman.

Chris Weinke, the 2000 award winner, continued the Heisman jinx at the start of the decade, by leading his Noles to a whopping 2 points in a 13-2 loss to Oklahoma in the championship game.  Eric Crouch (2001) might have peed his pants watching The U 30 for 30 documentary on ESPN the other night. Jason White (2003) could barely get first downs against Saban’s LSU team. Reggie Bush (2005)? BOOM VINCE YOUNG’ED. Troy Smith (2006) LOL. And, last year, Sam Bradford was also Gator Bait and failed to cover +5 in a 24-14 loss in the final game.

Here is the full list, going back to 1974, with the closing line, with your result had you bet againt the winner of the famed stiff-armed trophy.

1974 SO CALIF 18 – Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 17 + 6½ WINNER
1975 UCLA 23 – Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 10 + 14 WINNER
1976 GEORGIA 3 – Pittsburgh (Tony Dorsett) 27 + 3½ Loser
1977 NOTRE DAME 38 – Texas (Earl Campbell) 10 + 6½ WINNER
1978 NEBRASKA 24 – Oklahoma (Billy Sims) 31 + 11 WINNER
1979 OHIO STATE 16 – So Calif (Charles White) 17 + 7½ WINNER
1980 PITTSBURGH 37 – So Caro (George Rogers) 9 – 10 WINNER
1981 PENN STATE 26 – So Calif (Marcus Allen) 10 + 2 WINNER
1982 PENN STATE 27 – Georgia (Herschel Walker) 23 – 4 Tie
1983 MIAMI (FLA) 31 – Nebraska (Mike Rozier) 30 + 11½ WINNER
1984 HOUSTON 28 – Boston College (Doug Flutie) 45 + 6 Loser
1985 TEXAS A&M 36 – Auburn (Bo Jackson) 16 + 2½ WINNER
1986 PENN STATE 14 – Miami (Vinnie Testaverde) 10 + 7 WINNER
1987 TEXAS A&M 35 – Notre Dame (Tim Brown ) 10 + 4½ WINNER
1988 WYOMING 14 – Okla St (Barry Sanders) 62 + 2½ Loser
1989 Houston (Andre Ware) did not go to a bowl.
1990 TEXAS A&M 65 – Byu (Ty Detmer) 14 + 3 WINNER
1991 WASHINGTON 34 – Mich (Desmond Howard) 14 – 6½ WINNER
1992 ALABAMA 34 – Miami (Gino Torretta) 13 + 8 WINNER
1993 NEBRASKA 16 – Florida St (Charlie Ward) 18 + 15½ WINNER
1994 NOTRE DAME 24 – Colorado (R. Salaam) 41 + 7½ Loser
1995 TENNESSEE 20 – Ohio State (Eddie George) 14 – 4 WINNER
1996 FLORIDA ST 20 – Florida (Danny Wuerffel) 52 + 3½ Loser
1997 WASH ST 16 – Michigan (Charles Woodson) 21 + 6 WINNER
1998 MISSISSIPPI ST 11 – Texas (Ricky Williams) 38 + 6½ Loser
1999 STANFORD 9 – Wisconsin (Ron Dayne) 17 + 13½ WINNER
2000 OKLAHOMA 13 – Florida State (Chris Weinke) 2 + 10 WINNER
2001 MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 – Nebraska (Eric Crouch) 14 – 8½ WINNER
2002 IOWA 17 – Southern California (Carson Palmer) 38 + 5 Loser
2003 LOUISIANA ST 21 – Oklahoma (Jason White) 14 + 5½ WINNER
2004 OKLAHOMA 19 – So California (Matt Leinart) 55 + 2 Loser
2005 TEXAS 41 – So California (Reggie Bush) 38 + 7 WINNER
2006 FLORIDA 41 – Ohio State (Troy Smith) 14 + 4 WINNER
2007 MICHIGAN 41 – Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10½ WINNER Read more »

NFL Week 14

December 13, 2009
By

We’re at the three-quarter pole in the NFL season, and I noticed something about the final acts of the season as I poured through the standings and future schedules the other night during Green Bay win over Baltimore on Monday Night Football.

In the NFC, we could be heading to a unique and dramatic final Sunday of the season in 25 days. Let me explain.

First, let’s start with this premise: We know who the NFC playoff teams are going to be already. With four games to play, I think the NFC tournament is filled with six of the following teams: Dallas, Phily and the Giants of the NFC East, the Vikings and Packers of the North, the Cards from the West and, of course, the New Orleans Saints from the south. One of those teams will be left out of the dance, most likely, but far from a certainty, the third place team from the East.

As for the other clubs, I truly feel we can bury them and begin inking their 2009 obituary. Teams like Atlanta, San Francisco and Carolina remain on the fring of the chase, mathematically still alive for January football. But, at this point, those clubs not only need to run the table, but lose out on so many tie breakers, that they need to forge a tie with just the right teams just to somehow nab a Wild Card.  Until a more clear and sane path to the playoffs can be mapped out, then I am eliminating these fringe teams.

That leaves us the seven teams above for six spots. The Saints and Vikings have a lock grip on their division and would take extreme collapses to fall from those perched spots. The Cardinals are up 2 with 2 to play in the West and cam  make it a formality with a win over the 49ers next week on MNF. The Packers can keep winning without any worries and snare a wild card. The NFC East is the up in the air, with the two runners-up remaining strong wild card contenders.

What i find compelling about that is the first Sunday of January. Week 17 of the NFL season. The final day of the regular season. Well, six of those teams go head to head against each other. Whoa. That’s definetly odd. It certainly sets up a somewhat dramatic and unique possibilty of stakes on the line as that day plays out. Phily goes to Dallas, the Giants travel to Minnesota and Green Bay is at Arizona. The one team in this mix playing somebody outside of this family on the final day is the Saints, who host Carolina. But, the Saints are probably the most secure in their spot as the others, and, hey, if they’re capping an undefeated regulars season, well, then that just adds to the craziness and intrigue of the day.

If a few results go a certain way over the course of the next three regular season games, then we could have a final day where the Vikings need a home win over the Giants to maintain their #2 seed, bye and home game in the divisional round. The Cardinals would need a home win over the Packers to keep the pressure on in that race. Meanwhile the stakes for their foes, the Giants and Packers as well as the Eagle and Cowboys in their tet a tet, a win could put any of the NFC East teams as high as the #3 seed, but a lose by any of them could wipe them totally off the playoff bracktet when its all said and done. Read more »