This is as interesting holiday weekend for college hoops as it is for college football. Among the line up of games strung out over the next four days include Ohio State-Wisconsin, Oklahoma-Gonzaga, Purdue-West Virginia, Louisville-Kentucky, Kansas-Temple, Dayton-New Mexico, Gonzaga-Illinois, Xavier-Wake Forest, Clemson-Duke and Ohio State-Michigan. In a way, arent these games more compelling and meaningful than the forced matchups that have us all of watching the bowl games? I dont know, thats something we can go around and around on, but I think you can make some meritorious arguments in favor.
The whole thing explodes with a quintipleheader on ESPN2 this afternoon. Doesnt that alone speak to this being as much as hoops weekend as a football one? On one of the WWL’s primary channels, there are as many college hoop games being broadcasts than there are total bowl games on New Year’s Day. Anyway, the lead off game today is one that’s always close to my heart: Indiana vs Miuchigan, naturally since I am an Indiana Alum and lifelong Michigan fan. It might be just a 5 vs 10 matchup as far as Big 10 Power Polls go, but its an important game to me. So, with that game beginning a fun four days of wall-to-wall hoops that kicks off league season all over the country, allow me to take a short break from Bowl Chronicles to hack out a few words on today’s game at Assembly Hall.
I’ve been pretty bullish about the Hoosiers making strides after last year’s 6-win campaign that netted just one league win. But now everyone is recalibrating their expectations for Year 2 f the Crean Rebuilding Project in the wake of losing leading scorer Maurice Creek for the season with a knee injury. That includes me. I’ve said some foolish things about Indiana’s chances this year. Like, say, for example, they would have a winning home record in Big 10 play. If I must, i will stand by that pick. The Hoosiers still have a lot more firepower, options and depth than they had last year. They were barely a Div 1 basketball team last season, and had no chance in Big 10 games. I was happy if they just covered the spread (they did that 9 times in league play, fwiw). This year, a road map exists with this roster to get a fair share of wins. Without Creek, however, a lot of paths have closed down. With Creek, they had a guy who could score as well as anyone in this league. He is their go-to guy to exchange buckets in the heat of the moment with the other team. That scoring now has to come from somewhere else. Perhaps Devan Dumes, last year’s leading scorer who only ranks seventh on this year’s team, regains his role. The Hoosier faithful have been pretty patient during this process, but Dumes is the one player who has received a lot of angst on call-in shows and blog comment sections. That should add an interesting element to the ‘what now’ mindset among the fanbase the last couple of days.
I wonder if a winter of noticeable progress will give way to more frustration all due to a single injury. Its probably not appropriate to measure progress now based on wins and losses in Big 10 play. The IU basketball team’s attempt to rebuild and get back to the top has mirrored Michigan’s football program to do the same. Like this past year’s UM outfit, this IU has so much more in their bag. They can enter games with the legit expectation to win, unlike the respective first years of both coaching regimes. But, like the Michigan team this season, they are still young, need to learn how to win first and need everything to go close to perfect to win, in order to overcome the still obvious holes in the program. The Creek injury makes the burden of playing close to perfect more severe. Hold me to my boast of the winning home record in Big 10 play. I can take it. But, my new sense is that those 2-3 close games they lost at Assemby Hall will turn into wins. I dont know if we can expect more than that right now out of Indiana. I want to see how they respond and how competent they look without Creek before resume my bullishness, as far as wins are concerned, about Crean’s second year.
We’ll find out right away. One of those close losses that got away at home last season was against Michigan, who just so happens to be the opponent in today’s Big 10 season opener for both squads. They’re doing a lot of expectation changing in Ann Arbor as well over the hoops team. Fresh off their first tournament appearance in over a decade, the Wolverines were ranked in every preseason poll, whispered as a Sweet 16 darkhorse and a favorite to win a tough Thanksgiving weekend tournament. Well, they finished fourth in that field and its been a steady show of mediocrity ever since, dropping listless games to Boston College and Utah in the process. They battled top-ranked Kansas much better than anyone expected, perhaps signalling a turning of the corner, especially on the defensive end. Still, after touting the club a sure a tournament team, most fans have been steeling themselves to the likely return to the NIT when its all said and done.
Michigan in hardly cooked as far as an NCAA berth goes. A good Big 10 season will surely do it. If they improve on last season’s 9-9 league mark, I think they stand a good chance at netting an invite, provided they dont flame out and lose their first Big 10 tournament game. Doing that will still leave Michigan with a record only a few games above .500, but I still think they would have an attractive enough resume. A winning Big 10 mark would give Michigan one impressive win a week from here on out. People will notice that. In the end, their strenghth of schedule will help offset the fact that the slate also provided a lot of November and December losses. There is plenty of precedent for teams with so-so looking records making the field. The resume requires that they excel in the league slate, the league is considered top flight and that the so-so looking final record goes hand in had with a good overall SOS. Teams like Georgia, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin have all made the field at one time this decade with records barely hovering above .500.
Even today’s opponent Indiana nearly snuck away with an at large bid in 2005 despite a 15-12 record when the regular season ended. I planned on doing deeper research into teams just above .500 making it into the Dance, but I got hung up on comparing the situations between this year’s Michigan team and the Indiana club from five years ago. After a 2-0 start, the Hoosiers lost six straight games, some to powers like UNC, UK and UConn, others to average, yet Brand Name, clubs like Missouri, Notre Dame and UNC-Charlotte. When they dropped their conference opener at Northwestern by 19 points, they stood as far away from a tournament bid as you can get. Then, something unexpected happened. They got hot. They won four big 10 games in a row, kept their head above water and notched a couple wins during a grueling portion of the league stretch, and then caught fire again, winning another four in a row, including a nationally televised upset of a Michigan State tean ranked in the top-5. When they closed the season by thumping Northwestern at home, it gave them 10 league wins, but an otherwise uninspiring 15-12 overall record.
But, they were thick in the Bubble conversation. Heading into the 4/5 game of the Big 10 tournament against Minnesota, there was widespread punditry agreement that the winner of the game would notch an at-large bid. Alas, Indiana was still coached by Mike Davis back then. And, since Minnesota was not coached by Tommy Amaker at that htime, the Hoosiers got run off the court by the Gophers and were promptly seated at the NIT table. The point, however, was the bid was there for them despite a rather dull record. If Michigan somehow places itself in the 4/5 game of the Big 10 Tournament and/or notches 10 wins in league play, they will have put themselves in no worse a position than those Hoosiers were five years ago: in the discussion with a chance to notch a big with a good showing in the league tournament. It’s not the road map Wolverine fans expected six weeks ago, but its the one thats out there.
I see a lot of similarities between this year’s Michigan club with that IU team from five years ago. Neither was loaded with talent. It’s easy to doubt whether or not they have the chops to follow through and go on the necessary run in Big 10 play. Questionable scoring options as you get past the first couple of guys. Minimal post presence. Michigan has DeShaun Sims now, IU had DJ White, the Big 10 Freshmen of the Year, then. Everything about the offense revolved around mercurial stars who sometimes make you shake your head with some of their decisions on the floor. IU was led by Bracey Wright. Dont get me wrong. I would take Manny Harris everytime over Wright. It’s not even close. Harris wants to be at his college. He does so much more for his team than Wright ever did. He doesnt need the ball to impact the game. Manny is much stronger to the goal. By comparison, Wright was a one-dimensional, streak shooter. But, enough of that.
Michigan, by virtue of Harris and Sims, are more equipped than that team five years ago. And, they’re coached by John Beilein. Not Mike Davis. That’s an important distinction, right? I have hope for Michigan because that Indiana team, that was less talented and not as well coached, nearly coaxed a bid out of run up the Big 10 charts, despite a disastrous out of conference slate. Indiana had a manageable, winnable start to their Big 10 season that season, much like Michigan does this year. But, to make that surge, they almost need to begin winning right away, starting with this road contest in, coincidentally, Bloomington against the Hoosiers.
Usually there isnt much on the line in conference basketball openers. But, in Bloomington today we’re going to find out fast if Indiana has any more game in the tank in the wake of a killer injury and we’re going to learn if Michigan has what it takes to launch out to a fast Big 10 start to make everyone forget their less than stellar start. Throw in the OSU/Wisconsin showdown afterwards and we have a fun league doubleheader this afternoon. We can only hope that the games are as fun as last night’s Illinois win in overtime over a feisty Northwestern squad.
