[note](Programming note: Bowl Chronicles will be done in multiple parts today. This is the final part of the day: Peach Bowl, Hokies vs Vols. I also downgraded the Minny pick to a single unit. The previous three parts focusing on the Armed Forces, Sun, Texas and Insight Bowls are below. I’ll see everybody in 2010. Happy New Year. Be safe out there tonight. Oh, and I woke up chanting SUUUUUHHHHHH!!!! this morning. Nothing like easy money to fire you up. Lets keep it rolling today)[/note]
PEACH BOWL: TENNESSE VS VIRGINIA TECH. LINES, VT -5, O/U 49
This game makes me chuckle. In one corner, you have a money team of mine over the years, the Virginia Tech Hokies. I make no bones that I have a fondness for this team and root for it every week, even when I havent invested in the Hokies. In the other corner, a team I mock and love to bet against. Its been a hobby, cottage industry really, of mine to bet against Tennessee in big spots. For much of the decade, the Vols have been on the downslide, a Brand Name in label only. And, I generally rooted against them, even when I dont have money on the other side. Its hard to explain, yet typical of the college football fan experience, but sometimes you just always roots for certain teams and against certain others.
I’m chuckling because that hasnt really been the case this season. Nor, will it be tonight.
The Hokies let me down in the opener against Alabama. In their dramatic win over Nebraska, they won by just a point, falling short of the spread. They did blow out Miami, earning some back, but fell hard against Georgia Tech and UNC to close out October. They just werent coming through for me, and I was nowhere to be found when they closed the season with four double digit wins and covers to close the season. In my defense, the last three came against the worst of the ACC and the Hokies had shown little to assume they could cover heavy chalk.
The Vols, meanwhile, looked like the same old Vols when they were upset at home as double digit favorites against UCLA in Week 2. But, then something funny happened. The Vols began outperforming the betting public’s expectation, beginning with staying in range of winning outright over Florida. They hung with Bama, losing on a blocked kick, and blewout East rivals Georgia and South Carolina who now suddenly find themselves behind the Vols in the pecking order. They went 3-1 ATS when catching points this season and for the most part saved their best for when nobody expected them to compete.
This year, at least, I’m bullish on the Vols, not on the Hokies. I expect the investing patterns of the season to continue in this one. The Hokies will struggle to cover against a quality team on its schedule. The Vols will rise and play up, keeping it closer than the experts expect.
Frankly, its even a bit easier than that. The Vols are the better team. They are every bit as stout on defense as the Hokies. In fact, maybe even stronger up front, at the point of attack, by virtue of their size, and better in the backfield, thanks to the singular greatness of Eric Berry. Statistically, they are better, despite playing in the stronger conference. On offense, both can pound its way down the field. The Vols Montario Hardestry and Hokies Ryan Williams are two of the more effective tailbacks in America. They found the end zone a combined 32 times, so expect this guys to at least swap touchdowns tonight. The advantage for the Vols comes in the passing game. Both can run, but only the Vols will be efficient through the air. They have the better quarterback in this game. Frankly, if his name was not Jonathan Crompton, we’d be talking about the much better play of the Vol QB this year. He has 26 TDs to just 12 picks and he’s been so much better at pushing the ball downfield this year. While the Vols will move the chains and find points out of the passing game, I dont think the Hokies will. Yes, Tyrod Taylor will make a few plays out of nothing. But, I think the Vols pressure D and Eric Berry will also bait him into more mistakes. Those will eventually tip the game in the favor of the Orange in what should be one of the physically played games of bowl season.
The Pick: Tennessee +5, 2 Units……I do think these teams are even. I am fascinated by a game with both Bud Foster and Lane Kiffin calling the defensive shots. In the end, I like the extra edge Kiffin has brought to the Vols defensive schemes and am convinced they can use Hardesty all day on the undersized Hokie D-Line. Crompton will make more plays through the air than Taylor will, giving the Vols more balance. Eric Berry will make a pair of plays to thwart the Hokies, turning the game in their favor.
INSIGHT BOWL: MINNESOTA VS IOWA STATE. LINES, MINNY -1, O/U 48
Can Minnesota make the beleaguered Big 10 2-for-2 in bowl games this season, and, in the process, double the league’s postseason win total from a year ago? The bad news? Minnesota might be the worst Big 10 entrant this winter. The good news? Iowa State might be the worst Big 12 bowler out there. Why make early New Year’s Eve dinner reservations when this is on, amirite?!?! In a game that must have Iowa Hawkeye fans everywhere LOLing, I lean to the Big 10 Golden Gophers.
I might be one of the few people out there willing to defend Tim Brewster’s program. Thats not to say I think he’s a good coach or that anything bigger than continued appearances in this game are in the future. But, I enjoyed the turnaround last year, i am intrigued by the QB situation and i like several of the individual players, particularily on the defensive end. Maybe I’m just one of the few who will admit an interest in the program period, rather than defend it.
In this game, I think Adam Weber puts a little of his inconsistencies behind him. I think the extra bowl practices allow for him to get comfortable and reps in with other targets like Brandon Green and Nick Tow-Arnett. The Gophers struggled a bunch once Eric Decker went out of the lineup. I have felt all along the Gophers had been ignoring other weapons, so I banking on the extra prep time helping those to emerge. And, I think you’ll see an effective usage of Marquis Gray this afternoon. Neither offenses are great. Both kill themselves with turnovers. But, I like the Gophers with the passing of Weber and a better collection of other playmakers will give Minnesota more juice this afternoon.
On the other side of the ball, ISU isnt that great. They have a good back seven that can get turnovers, but I dont think they’re much of a run stopping unit and they dont get any pressure on the QB. Weber has been mistake prone this season, but I dont think he’ll be flustered without much of a pass rush in his face. I do, however, like the Gophers defense. Its never been a shutdown unit, but over the last two seasons, its been very effective of bending, but not breaking and has turned games around in its favor by hanging in their and eventually making the proverbial big play. I think its more of the same against the 102nd ranked scoring offense in the land. With Traye Simmons, Marcus Sherrels, Simoni Lawrence and Lee Campbell, I think they have more than enough defense to contain Iowa State.
The Pick: Minnesota -1 (-125), 1 Unit…..this line fell to 1.5, and I bought it down to one by paying a little extra juice. I think the Gophers are a little bit better on offense, a little bit better on defense, have the better quarterback and have achieved more to get to this point. Iowa State has a great win over Nebraska, but the Huskers handed them that game with a record number of turnovers. Otherwise, the Clones have been outclassed this season, losing by double digits to the four other bowl teams on their slate this season. The Gophers meanwhile beat three bowl teams (Michigan State, Northwestern and Air Force…..that last one looks pretty good now, doesnt it?) and held their own against two others in Cal and Wisconsin that bring in a whole heckuva lot more game that ISU does. This wont be pretty, but the Gophers get it done.
I’l ride a pair of technical angles that I like in the two other afternoon bowl games.
SUN BOWL: OKLAHOMA VS STANFORD. LINES, OKLAHOMA -10, O/U 55
This might sound odd given how easily I bet against (and won) Arizona last night, but I love Pac 10 teams as an underdog in bowl games. Including last night’s Arizona failures, the Pac 10 remains a profitable 14-5 ATS as an underdog in bowl games since 1999. I’ll play those percentages and risk a unit that Pac 10 underdogs wont get shutout this bowl season. I know, there is nothing to point to as matchups go that tell you the Cardinal will have their way with the mighty Sooners today. Their QB is doubtful. Defensively, they’re not fast enough. They’re not big or talented enough in the trenches. They havent matched up well against the Pac 10 either, but they still find away to be effective enough on the field. I think they still establish Gerhardt, they can still get the ball downfield in the passing game and I think defensively they can overachieve a little. Dont forget, this isnt the 2008, score 60 points like its their job Sooners. They’ve been a contained offense all season and the Cardinal can keep them in range.
The Pick: Stanford +10, 1 Unit……..Watching Gerhardt meet Gerald McCoy in the hole might be some of the best collisions this bowl season. I have been a believer in the Harbaugh program from the get go. I think he’s going outprep Stoops and outcoach him today. I’ll take the coach that pulled out eight outright underdog upsets the last three seasons over one that 3-7 ATS in bowl game, 1-6 as chalk.
TEXAS BOWL: NAVY VS MISSOURI. LINES, MISSOURI -7, O/U 54.5
Navy is 40-25-2 as an underdog since 1999, including 26-14-1 since the second half of the 2003 season. So, this is trending upwards, even as Navy becomes less and less of a secret to oddsmakers and the betting public. Throughout their Renaissance as an annual bowl team, the Middies have always exceeded expectations against the better teams on their slate, while laying eggs as chalk against the seemingly gimme wins. The latter has actually kept Navy from closing the gap as far as point spreads go and allowing them to remain valuable underdog plays. For example, why would anyone think Navy can hang with Notre Dame the week after losing to Temple?
I have been a Navy backer virtually my entire capping career. I know their ups and down. I know that straight up losses to Duke, Rice and Delaware are comingled with money efforts when nothing is expected from them. Those are the games I look for with them. I can say with surety that Navy has probably won me more money than any other program out there over the last six years or so. I always take a chance on them in Bowl Season and they’re 4-2 ATS during that time. I’ll play the game again with them this year.
The Pick: Navy +7, 1 Unit……..By all accounts, the Tigers should out athelte the Middies today. But, thats a weekly occurence in Navy games. Why are we all so sure Missouri is so good that they’ll blow out Navy. Teams always seen to struggle playing Navy’s triple option the first time and in Ricky Dobbs they have an engineer out there running it to move all day on any defense it can get on its heels. Missouri has never proven to be a consistent team. Unless they’re playing Illinois, of course. But, they’re too flaky for my tastes to believe that they’re going to be properly focused and disciplned enough to just walk all over Navy. They were just 1-5 ATS against bowl teams this season, struggled to put away other mid-major bowl teams like Bowling Green and Nevada. I think Navy can have the same kind of success and they’re better defensively than those clubs. Again, I’ll take the head start with my old friends from Navy.
ARMED FORCES BOWL: AIR FORCE VS HOUSTON. LINES, HOUSTON -5, O/U 63.5
Since we coming up to kickoff, I dont really have to time to go too in depth on this one. But, is it really necessary anyway? We saw these teams play twice last season, the games were near carbon copies of each other. Why not a third? So here’s what to expect: At least 35 minutes of time of possession for Air Force, a 100-yard total advantage in offense out of Houston, clutch third down conversions from both teams, a lot of penalties, a turnover advantage for Air Force and a close game that goes down to the wire.
Oh, and dont expect to many Air Force passing attempts. Last year, the Force won the regular season game over Houston and didnt complete a single pass (out of seven attempts) the whole day. They did rip off close to 7 yards a carry running the football and salted away a close 31-28 win with their lethal option offense. They met in this very same bowl to close the season and Houston extracted some revenge. The teams went back and forth exerting their styles of play. The Cougars forged a late six-point lead and then stopped the Force on fourth down as they were driving in the final minutes clinching a 34-28 win.
Twelve months later, the long awaited rubber match. Who wins? Well, I expect another close game. The Force rarely gets blown out, so I’m not intimidated seeing them go against a fast, pass happy team. In fact, I relish it. I am a firm believer that underdogs who outrush their opponents cover the spread at a high rate. The tricky wicket is IDing those dogs before a single stat is registered. Well, this is a case where we can be reasonably assured. We have the #3 ranked rushing offense with Air Force against the 111th rushing defense in Houston. On the other side, its the 83rd rushing offense in Houston against the 38th rushing defense in the Force. The Pilots will outrush Houston today putting them on the good side of historical precedence.
Air Force has lost in this Armed Forces Bowl two years in a row. I backed them both times. Both times, I lost painfully. Against Cal two years, they dominated the Bears, but their QB tore his knee early in the second half. Their offense stalled, Cal exploded, took a late lead and the last chance to cover the +3.5 line went by the wayside with a failed two-point conversion in the following minute. Last year, in the aforementioned Houston game, they lost by 6 when catching just 5 points and their drive to take the lead late in the game was turned away. Sometimes, I just refuse to learn. We’re giving the Force another stab here.
The Pick: Air Force +5, 1 Unit……..Not to mention, Air Force has the top rated pass defense in the land as far as permitting yards through air. This is a classic battle of different styles: Run and Shoot vs Old School Option. Air Force is more equipped to thwart the other’s style and break serve in what should be another game in the high 50s, low 60s between these clubs. Remember, Air Force did this against a rugged Mountain West slate and a slate that included six bowl teams. They allowed just 19 points a game in those contests. They took Utah and TCU into overtime, teams that are better from top to bottom than Houston. I’ll take the five point head start
