For my fellow Michigan fans, today’s Humanitarian Bowl between Bowling Green and Idaho offers a chance to see first hand the Maize and Blue’s foe in Week 4 of the 2010 season in September. I can sum up your armchair scouting report in one sentence: Thank God, Freddie Barnes wont be on the team anymore. Or Tyler Sheehan, for that matter. Alright, so thats two sentences, but you get the point.
That game next season would be on everyone’s preseason ‘Upset Alert’ list with the explosive QB/WR combo of Sheehan and Barnes. Barnes is a legit NFL prospect and looks to follow Greg Jennings path of MAC stardom to starting NFL wideout. Michigan Stadium can rest easy this offseason knowing that when the Falcons come to town, those weapons will no longer be in Coach Dave Clawsen’s arsenal. Getting back to the present, the chore today for Sheehan and Barnes in their Falcon Swan Song is to try and hang point for point with the WAC’s Idaho Vandals and their high scoring offense.
HUMANITARIAN BOWL: BOWLING GREEN VS IDAHO. LINES, IDAHO -1, O/U 68
This is a game for the college fantasy football nuts. Do you think we’ll see some guady stats tonight or what? With the Vandals you have the 10th ranked total offense in the land. They’ve gained over 5,000 yards this season, mostly on the arm of QB Nathan Enderlee who has engineered the nation’s 11th ranked passing attack and regularily puts up a stat line that includes a YPA above 10. They run the football well with three different backs in the 5 ypc range, paced by DeMaundray Woolridge and his 12 touchdowns. Bowling Green does not have the same impressive numbers from top to bottom, but with the Sheehan/Barnes combo, they have the 8th ranked passing attack in the land. Sheehan has gone over the 300 yard mark in passing in eight games this year. And, Barnes numbers alone would have leading your fantasy league as he’s booked 1,500 yards and 18 scores this season. Neither team packs much in the way of a shutdown defense, so dont expect a low tally of points, stats or fantasy numbers. They’re playing on the Blue Turf in Boise, and it’s going to look a lot like the pinball machine type games the hometown Broncos play. Except maybe a lot less one sided as this one ought to remain in doubt well into the fourth quarter.
If you were to begin handicapping this game based on how well the teams were playing to end the season, you have to like Bowling Green. The Falcons climbed out of an early season hole, won their final four games and notched this bowl invite after missing out on the postseason a year ago. They won six of their last seven games, earned 5 of seven covers and closed scorching hot on a 4-0 SUATS run in November.
The Vandals, meanwhile, saw their hot start fade. They began the season by going 6-1 and in mid October had covered the spread in all seven games. They became the flag bearer for the JCB’s own Power Poll which debuted this season. But, its been a long time since then. They won just one of their final five games. They didnt cover the spread in any of those games. In fact, they havent covered the spread since October 17. During the late season fade, they allowed 52 or more points three times and permitted an even 50 points per game during their 1-4 close to the year.
Despite the MAC’s overall poor showing in Bowl Games (a record that is now 2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS after Temple’s fourth quarter collapse yesterday), I will ride the recent trends both teams have been on. Bowling Green will continue to play well and do just enough to win. While Idaho will continue to give up yards and points in bunches and lose the game in the end. The Vandals have, after all, given up more than 5,000 yards in offense this season.
Idaho has really been killed by every quality team it faced this season. Their offense can keep up for awhile, but eventually it falters for a possession or two and its defense cant seem to break serve. Eventually games against Nevada, Fresno and Utah State got away from the Vandals and they found themselves on their way to double digit losses. I mean, they gave up 52 points to Utah State. Can you reasonably expect a defense thats ranked worse than 100 in total yards and scoring to win a game?
Neither program has too many wins over fellow bowlers. But, the Falcons have performed better. They beat Sun Belt Champ Troy, holding that powerful offense to just 14 points. In tight losses to other bowl teams, the Falcons allowed just 17, 20 and 24 points to Marshall, Missouri and Central Michigan, all offenses that can put pressure on a defense in ways like Idaho. The Falcons might not have won those games, but they showcased some defense that’s a bit better than the stat rankings would indicate.
The Pick: Bowling Green +1, 1 Unit…….Idaho brings no defense to this game, the Falcons pack at least some defense. Thats the difference. They have been decent against the pass this season and didnt allow big yardage through the air against teams like Troy, Central and Missouri who like to pass all day. I think they get enough service breaks in this one to take control in the end. Here’s another thing I like: BG starts and finishes strong as the first and fourth quarter provide their biggest scoring advantages. Idaho has a tendency to start slowly and they allowed 114 fourth quarter points. They also have had a stretch in all their key games where a series of mistakes buries the offense. They didnt have the defense to overcome that against the likes of Utah State. Sheehan and Barnes will make them pay as well.
HOLIDAY BOWL: NEBRASKA VS ARIZONA. LINES, NEBRASKA -2, O/U 41
The Holiday Bowl is expected to shed its usual identity tonight. It has a reputation as the one bowl game guaranteed to offer bigtime offensive fireworks, a repuation born from its affiliation with the old school WAC when the bowl was first played in the late 1970s. Throughout its time on the bowl docket, the games have continued to add to this reputation. From the 38-37, 46-45, 38-36 games beteen BYU/IU, BYU/SMU, BYU/Wassau from 1979-1981 to 39-38 and 50-39 games in the late 1980s to Oregon’s 35-30 win over Texas and the Horns 47-43 over UW to start this decade. You can always book points in this game. The last two years have seen 86 and 73 points as Texas and Oregon each earned another Holiday Bowl Trophy in the process.
This year, however, the Holiday Bowl is dressing up as Defense for the holiday. With Arizona and Nebraska, two of the more stout defenses in the land invade San Diego. Neither carries a ton of explosiveness in its offensive bag, so for folks expecting a traditional Holiday Bowl score, they might want to check out ESPN Classic listings instead. Consider the Over/Under total of 41. The winner of this game has exceeded that total by themselves in five of the last eight Holiday Bowls. If the game goes Under the total, it will be guaranteed to be no worse than the fourth lowest Holiday Bowl since 1984. This bowl game is expected to change its stripes tonight, indeed.
In the end, I am taking Nebraska. I see a lot of folks on Arizona out there in punidtry land. But, to me, this is easy. I cant wait to watch Ndomakang Suh play and I want to be on his side. In a coin flip game, I’ll take the team with the most destructive force and most dominant unit between the two teams.
Really nobody has touched up this Husker defense all season. Sure, Texas Tech’s goofy pass happy spread got them for bigtime points, but lets be honest: The Red Raiders have provided matchup issues for the Huskers all decade. I’m not that shocked it happened again this year. Otherwise, teams scoring in the single digits has been the norm. I dont expect Arizona to offer much resistance to that. The Huskers will get better QB play than they did against Texas in the Big 12 Title game and eventually ease by with a 20-10 win.
When I think of this game, I come back to Arizona’s match with Iowa back in September. The Hawkeyes knocked around two different Arizona quarterbacks. Nebraska will do the exact same thing. The Cats really could not handle the Hawks up front and today they will play not only a DLine that is just as good, but carries a single player that is a lot better than anything Iowa had. Foiles, the Arizona QB, had a tremendous first half of the season but has seen his completion rate drop signinifcantly during the back half of the season as he faced better defenses. Tonight, he plays the best one he’s seen all season.
The Pick: Nebraska -2, 2 Units……I know the Cats will bring some defense too, but I just feel Nebraska has the more dominant defense, they make QBs look terrible and that they will be able to generate a bit more offense today than Arizona. Pellini vs Stoops is a fun coaching matchup to see which coach will be more animated on the sideline. In the end, I really like Pellini more. I think they get this game done and Arizona, like most of Nebraska’s foes this season, will struggle to get two touchdowns on the board.
