Was anyone still paying attention to the closing minutes of yesterday afternoon’s Independence Bowl? Georgia had all but tucked away the game, but a flurry of late points after the game had been decided made for some dramatic moments in Over/Under betting. The fact the Over was even in play was remarkable considering the total set was in the mid-60s and the teams played a scoreless game until 25 minutes of game clock had ticked away The game was on pace for 42 points at the half and 51 points after three quarters, so it looked like an easy win for Under bettors. Then, four fourth quarter touchdowns, including a pair in the final four minutes.
I was fascinated with the total points number in this one throughout the day. When I sat down to work on Bowl Chronicles, I checked the lines and the total was 67 points. When I posted on the blog and went back to the Book to make a play on the side, I noticed the total play had tumbled all the way down to 65.5 points. That’s a lot of late money on the Under to push it down a whole 1.5 points during betting the day of the game.
For most of the game, it looked like easy money. Until all those late garbage touchdowns. But, when UGA scored to make it 44-14, they missed the extra point, so 8 points was still needed in the final three minutes of play to hit the Over. Surely that killed it, right? Not quite. The Aggies, after spending much of the second half tripping over themselves, finally put together a scoring drive and put one in the end zone. For no apparent reason, they went for two. Even though they missed, I am sure a lot of bettors at least gave Aggie Coach Mike Sherman credit for having their gambling backs. Maybe all the former Franchione newsletter subscribers backed the Over and word got down to Sherman? I dont know.
Regardless, the conversion failed. Under wins. But there must have been some steamed sportsbooks across the Vegas strip as the closing minutes played out. The House had the Over, it had to made folks behind the scenes at the Books hot under the collar to see the Over go up in flames thanks to a pair of missed PATs in the final minutes of the game.
Hey, I can relate. No, I didnt take the total last night. I did so poorly last year on Over/Under totals during bowl season that I resolved to make no plays on those numbers. But, I have lost the last two nights of bowl season. UK failed by a single point and the Aggies last night redefined special teams disaster en route to breaking open a close game into blowout loss. Twice this bowl season, I’ve peaked at +1.9 Units only to knocked back down again. The damage the last two nights have put my current bowl record at 5-6, -0.3 Units. Had you been betting to $100 on each of my plays, you’d be down a mean 30 bucks. We’re a third of way through, so we’re frustrated over here, but hardly in panic mode. I always get one hot streak per bowl season. If it hits now, at least I’m not really in a hole I need to climb out of first.
We have a doubleheader today, including a nightcap where the Big 10 makes in debut appearance of this postseason. So, lets get after it. The first game between Temple and UCLA begins at 4:30 with the Badger/Cane nightcap kicking off in primetime at 8:00. Here’s hoping the night can deliver some winners.
THE UNDERCARD
EAGLEBANK BOWL: TEMPLE VS UCLA. LINES, UCLA -4, O/U 45
For the second time in three bowl days, we have a game that sounds more like a second round game in the college hoops tournament than a bowl game. Well, maybe not a second round in this year’s March Madness, UCLA fans.
This game is one reason I was pulling for the Cadets in the annual Army/Navy classic a couple of weeks ago. A win by Army would have put them into this game against Temple. Now, Owls/Knights certainly doesnt have me stoned on contact buzz alone, but at least we’d have something in the way of symetry. We’d have a pair of lowly programs, rising up after years of losing to finally play in a bowl game. When we’re talking lower tiered bowls between mid majors, there is no difference between that and the Rose Bowl. Or at least the Outback Bowl.
Army lost, however, that day to the Middies, bumping the UCLA Bruins into this spot. A Pac 10-MAC matchup? Not exactly something we’re all clamoring to see, right? I have been wondering all along how to go about handicapping this game. This just has to be a mismatch, doesnt it? I mean, I know the Bruins arent truly a good football team, but we’re judging them as they go up against a difficult slate in the Pac 10′s best season in years. Give them Temple’s slate and they probably do end up looking like a nice team on paper. Unless its Washington State, shouldnt every Pac 10 team be at least double digit favorites against most MAC schools?
We saw MAC Champion Central Michigan and best overall program in the league the last four season play a Pac 10 team this year. CMU’s otherwise potent attack got shutdown and would have struggled to just move the ball across the street. The Chips lost to Arizona 19-6. Now, UCLA might not be as good overaall as Arizona, but they’re every bit as good on the defensive side of the ball. And Temple is but half the offense of Central Michigan. They are an effective running team, the best power team in the MAC, but they are very one dimensional with subpar QB performance. A Bruins defense with six All-Pac 10 performers, including future NFL draft picks at each postional unit should be able keep the Owls from putting too many scores on the board. The MAC is 2-13 SU, 4-11 ATS in bowl games since 2005, and I have a hard time buying the notion those numbers will change in a game against a Pac 10 team, even one as historically flaky as UCLA.
Even with the ups and downs this program has had, the Bruins still have been able to beat Utah, BYU and Notre Dame during this year’s senior class tenure on campus, as well as beat Tennessee in each of the last two seasons. Despite their bad offensive numbers, general inconsistencies and lack of signature Pac 10 win, I think UCLA is an alright Pac 10 team. They had a great September winning and covering the spread in all three games, including a road win in Knoxville over the Vols and double digit wins over San Diego State and Kansas State. They had a good November, going 3-1. They played hard, but didnt have enough offense against USC in the closer, but a pair of tough wins over UW and ASU separated them from the non-bowling pack of the league. The problem with the Bruins was an awful Ocotber that saw them lose all five Saturdays, all to the upper echeleon of the conference. They played solid, close games against Oregon State and Stanford, but were outclassed and lost easily to Arizona, Oregon and Cal. Prince wasnt available fulltime for all those games, so the development of the offense with its best lineup on the field really stagnated that month. The Bruins are 5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS this season when Prince is the primary QB and doesnt split time at all in a game.
Price wasnt bad down the stretch. Other than struggling in the closer against USC, Prince’s play ranged from competent game manager to legit playmaker throughout the previous four games. He didnt pile up guady numbers, but he didnt make mistakes or hurt his team, an important notion considering the Bruins shutdown defense. He made enough plays to his nice collection of wideouts, including Nelson Rosario, to move the ball and put points on the board. Rosario will be a huge matchup issue for the Owls all day, due to his size advatnage and ability to go over the top of defensive backs. The Prince-Rosario combination will go for over 100 yards and provide the only points out of the passing game all afternoon. Prince did outduel Jake Locker in a key one-point November win for UCLA. I think he can hold his own and be more than effecitve today, despite Temple’s overall defensive numbers on paper.
I dont like the Owls overall matchup with the Bruin D. Yes, behind their big, physical offensive line, they will have some success pounding the football with Bernard Pierce and Mack Brown. But, I dont think they will have any success through the air. There is going to be a limit on just how successful they can be just by running the football. This will be the best defense the Owls will have faced since knocking heads with Penn State in September in a game they mustered just a pair of field goals in offense. They’re starting freshmen Chester Stewart today at QB. He’s played in just five games this year, completed only 40 percent of his passes and now steps up from MAC play to a BCS foes for the first time in his career. And, this is no average BCS defense. The Bruins have the defense right now to compete for a major bowl berth out of the Pac 10. I think Brian Price will live in the Owl backfield. I dont think they can block him. And, look for ballhawkers Alterreaun Verner, Rahim Moore and Tony Dye to shut down the passing attack and make passing miserable for Stewart. I dont think the Owls score two touchdowns today.
The Pick: UCLA -4, 1 Unit……my only fear is the Bruins are a disinterested favorite, having to cross country, play in cold weather against a lowly team from the MAC. If Neuheisal has their heads on straight, this should be an easy win for the Bruins. Temple will fight them tooth and nail. They wont shrink from the challenge. But, they’re just too one dimensional to log a ton of points in this one and facing a speed, size and depth disadvantage against a Pac 10 team, they just wont have enough to stick with them all four quarters. I can see UCLA holding a touchdown lead late in the game and their ballhawking secondary picking off a Temple pass, setting up a game, and pointspread, salting touchdown. Bruins win 23-10.
THE MAIN EVENT
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL: WISCONSIN VS MIAMI. LINES, MIAMI -3.5, O/U 57.
The main event tonight is in Orlando where the Big 10 makes its debut appearance of the bowl season with the Wisconsin Badgers taking on the Miami Hurricanes from the ACC. A lot of the intrigue tonight rests with what kind of statement will Wisconsin make on behalf of its conference brethern. Last season, the proud Big 10 had its worst bowl season in years, going just 1-6 in those games. Wisconsin did its share to add to the shame by being run off the field in the second half last year on this exact same field by Florida State in a 42-13 drubbing. The Badgers, a program that otherwise had been a solid bowl team until then, look to make amends for that tonight and, in the process, make a statement about the Big 10.
This should be a fun game tonight. Both teams are young, with gamebreaking talent who are eyeing an even bigger year in 2010. Both were a few plays away from bigger bowl destinations this year. Where would the Canes be had they not proven overmatched against Virginia Tech in September or drop winnable home games to Clemson and UNC later in the year? The Badgers would be playing on New Year’s Day had it not been for a 2-point loss to scrappy Northwestern in the season finale.
Conventional wisdom says the Badgers will again be at a speed and athletic disadvantage against the Canes tonight like they were against the Noles a year ago. I think that logic is just a bit simplistic. The Badgers have a true big play tailback, unlike last year where they featured the plodder PJ Hill against FSU. Their QB play is significantly better this season and big play targets like Nick Toon and Isaac Anderson, secondary targets a year ago, are more dangerous than a year ago. And, their defense is playing much better than a year ago. I think this translates to a whale of a ball game tonight with a lot of next level talent showcasing their games. Earlier in the bowl season, I mentioned the Pitt/UNC game could very well be a BCS matchup in the next year or two. So too could this matchup. These programs will be back mostly intact next season. The winner tonight probably sets themselves up a sparkly top-15 ranking in the preseason polls next summer.
I like the Badgers chances in this one. I love their offense. This has the makings of the Big 10′s most explosvie offense in 2010, and I think they make a statement as such this evening against a Hurricane defense thats been shaky all season against good, healthy offenses that can put pressure on them along the perimeter. I love Anderson and Toon going up against a Cane secondary thats had trouble covering people one-on-one all season and apt to comit interference and holding penalties. Toon, in particular, will show he is the Big 10′s best kept secret. The Badgers passing attack can also kill you with multiple TEs in the routes as well.
Of course, their meal ticket is Jonanthan Clay, the Big 10′s Offensive MVP. I think he goes off tonight. I felt had they featured Clay instead of Hill more last season, they would have had a better record and been more competitive in the bowl game against FSU. Clay is a stud. He gets better as the game wears on and gets a ton of yards after the initial contact. He will wear out an athletic, yet undisciplned Cane front. This might sound arse backwards, but I think the Badgers have too many weapons for the Cane defense to contain. I expect a big enough day out of Clay where whispers of him turning pro will become loud screams. And QB Tolzien really only had one bad game all season. I think he’ll be more than effective taking advantage of a Cane D keying of Clay and moving the football through the air with Toon and friends.
Of course, lets not discount the Canes matching them point for point. I love the Jacory Harris kid. I feel the Canes have an ACC Title in their future with him calling the signals. He is the more explosive QB in this matchup. He might not be the most consistent, but he can win this game with his big play ability more so than Tolzien can for the Badgers. He has some wonderful, big play targets in Leonard Hankerson and Travis Benjamin. They will make plays tonight and throw some haymakers to match whatever the Badgers can do.
In the end, I lean towards the Badgers for a few reasons. Mainly, I like their defense better than the Canes. I think they have a few more answers on that end of the ball than Miami does. The Canes offensive line has been spotty this year. Tonight, they go up against an active and beefy DLine. O’Brien Scholfield has not been blocked all season. He dominated Terrelle Pryor and OSU, for example. I think he meets Jacory Harris up close and in person a lot today. The Badgers are one of the best teams in the country at getting pressure, sacking the QB and TFLs. I think the Badgers front on defense wins the battle against the Canes offensive front enough times tonight to tilt the difference.
While I think Harris can have as big a day throwing the football as Tolzien, he has proven way more mistake prone than his counterpart. He’s one of the leaders in the country at tossing interceptions and he is going against a defense that will pressure him up front into mistakes right into the hands of a Badger secondary that has picked off as many balls as Harris has thrown this year. On paper, this doesnt bode well for Miami.
Wisconsin is the more complete and balanced on offense. I have no doubt the Badgers can set the tone with Clay. If he’s given two dozen carries, he will break several big runs and has the power to shed tacklers and acceleration to run away from defenses and take it to the house. The Badgers, however, have stoned everybody with their rush defense. The Canes lack a true running identity. We have an underdog in Wisconsin that I feel good about going into the game outrushing the favorite. I like that. Dogs who outrush their foes cover at an excellent rate. As do any bowl team that outrushes their opponent.
The Pick: Wisconsin +3.5, 2 Units…….Only one time has the Wisconsin offense been shutdown this year and that was against Iowa. Iowa specialized in making other teams’ QBs look bad. The Canes are not at that level. As long as Tolzien plays within himself, I think he avoids mistakes and takes advantage of a Cane D thats shut down the bad offenses in the ACC, but has been vulnerable all season to league attacks with a pulse. Any defense that allows 34 points to the pop gun offense at North Carolina is going to have problems with an offense that has a competent passer and NFL talents at RB, WR and TE. I think the Badgers take this game over late on the legs of Clay, who puts up 150 yards and makes an NFL statement in the process. Badgers win 28-20.
