Bowl season kicks into an extra gear today with the Independence Bowl. For the first time this bowl season, a pair of traditional, college football Brand Names meet head-to-head in the sort of regional matchups that should be more of the essence of bowl season. Of course, Brand Name teams arent synonomous with Elite teams and that’s what makes today’s game between Texas A/M and Georgia all the more intriguing.
Independence Bowl: Georgia vs Texas A/M. Lines, UGA -7, O/U 67
The Aggies Brand Name has, to be kind, dulled throughout this entire decade. They’ve missed out on the postseason in four of the last nine seasons, including last season’s 4-8 debacle in Mike Sherman’s debut season. Their return to the bowl calendar this season hasnt been an obvious statement that announces that their back either. They got to bowl eligibility, but only defeated two fellow bowlers along the way. They never had that signature win that made you ever take notice of them. The pushed Texas deep into the fourth quarter on Thanksgiving night, which, if anything, showcased their explosive offense and spoke more to their potential than their current abilities. Beating the Georgia Bulldogs from the mighty SEC could signal a new Big 12 contender next fall.
Georgia’s own Brand Name has taken hits in recent seasons. They were suppoed to be national championship contenders a year ago, but never ended up being a factor in the race. This season, they had all sorts of defensive breakdowns and had loads of troubles trying to replace the production on offense from some departing stars. The net result was a 5-loss season, three within the SEC East, and an overall sense that the program was more than just a step below the current and emering contenders in the league. Three defensive coaches have been let go since the regular season ended, a telltale sign that things were spinning out of control, even for the non rebuilding side of the team which still had pretty good numbers on paper. This is still very much a program in transition from the Stafford/Moreno era and would love to make a statement on their own headed into the offseason.
They may very well to that tonight, but I am sticking with the underdog in this game. I took the 7-points last night and painfully came up a point short. I’ll give it another spin tonight even though the game, like last night’s, looks like a mismatch when just consider the public perception of both programs. I give the Aggies a bit of a motivational edge. They dont give a rip their bowl game is in Shreveport. They’re happy to be here. Georgie has been hearing all month people whining about an inglorious bowl destination. I think the Aggies will have more focus than the Dawgs.
I cant help but think back to last year’s bowl game when UGA wasnt sharp enough to put away Michigan State until late. There was some yawn factor going on with that and this spot is even more obscure. And, Sparty was led by the innacurate Brian Hoyer. He couldnt generate the offense to take advantage of UGA’s lacksadaisicalness. That will not be a problem today for the Aggies and QB Jerod Johnson. The Junior QB emerged this season as a bigtime playmaker, accounting for over 3,700 yards and 36 touchdowns. He gets balanced production from a pair of running backs and five pass catching targets all with somewhere between 30-45 catches. In addition to Johnson, seven different Aggies scored at least 3 touchdowns. This is the 5th ranked total offense in the nation, 14th ranked scoring offense and they tallied 31 or more points in 10 games this season, six of them in Big 12 games. The Aggies might not be winning they like used to in the 1980s and 1990s, but at least this season, their offense was exciting to watch.
I dont trust Georgia’s defense, which was vulnerable all season to the big play, to hold down this offense and take it out of its game. I think we can bank on the Aggies taking a strong run at another 30-plus point game. With a QB at the top of his game, who doesnt kill his team with turnovers, with many options to throw to, are the Aggies the type of team Georgia needs to play right now after wholesale defensive coaching changes. Breakdowns are still going to happen because I doubt everyone is on the same page right now. There just hasnt been time.
Not, let’s not make this sound like an obvious Aggie cover or win. Their defense is not very good. The Dawgs will have success on offense. Heck, maybe even among their best output of the season. But this offense cant get into a track meet. The Aggies will put a lot of pressure on it to score touchdowns on half their possessions to win. I’m not sure they can succeed in that type of game. And, they’ve been turnover prone all season. I see a TO margin in favor of the Aggies today and Johnson will make them pay on any short fields.
The Pick: Texas A/M +7, 1 Unit………I see a high scoring, who-has-the-ball last sort of game in this. It’s a Happy Hour special with a 5:00 kick. I just like the extra gear of the Aggies offense in this one to set the pace. I’ll take my chances with the TD-head start. Besides, the Bulldogs have been nothing bt money burners as a favorite in recent times. They’re jst 2-5 ATS as chalk this season and 5-11-1 the last two seasons. Consisently overrated when the betting public expects them to win, I’ll continue to fade them as chalk.
