NFL Week 16: Backing Steelers Playoff Chances
(Programming note: Bowl Chronicles will post later this afternoon. It’s a 8:30 pm kickoff for the Music City Bowl between Kentucky and Clemson. It’ll be posted at least a couple hours before it starts. In the interim, I am doing foolish things with money on the NFL today.)
NFL Week 16 and the defending champion and MY Pittsburgh Steelers are in trouble.
So, what to do? How about pushing chips into the middle of the table and backing them with their backs up against the wall. I dont endorse betting with your heart, but I have a feeling that last week’s final second win over Green Bay was not a final stand, but instead the spark they need. I think they beat Baltimore today and I wouldnt be surprised if the right other results went their way today, putting them in position to clinch a playoff spot next week.
In fact, here’s my prediction: next Sunday’s finale in Miami between the Steelers and Dolphins will be a winner-take-all contest for the final wild card spot in the AFC tournament. And, today, our money will be on all the results needed to make that happen. What can go wrong with that strategy? You know, it’s better to not tell me.
The Steelers and Dolphins both need to win to make next week’s showdown somewhat meaningful. To make it for a playoff bid, then a series of results on the out-of-town scoreboards needs to fall their way. Here’s what needs to happen: New England needs to beat Jacksonville at home, Philadelphia needs to beat Denver at home and Indianapolis needs to beat the Jets at home.
The Dolphins dont need all those results to fall that way for them to have a bid on the line next Sunday, but the Steelers do. A Pittsburgh win with those results, pushes the Steelers ahead of the Jets and Jaguars in the standings. It would tie them with Baltimore and Denver. The Ravens would still be ahead, based on AFC record, but the Steelers own a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Broncos by virtue of a Monday Night Football win nearly two months ago. The Dolphins also own a head-to-head tie break with Denver, so if both Miami and Pittsburgh win and the other three results fall, then we’ll get a virtual playoff game between the Fins and Steelers next Sunday. With that setup, here are the picks:
Miami -1 over Houston…..Dolphins have covered 8 of their last 11. One of the more reliable plays since October started. This team knows its identity and knows how to play effectively to its strengths. They win on a field goal late in the game.
Steelers -2 over Ravens……bitter rivals. blood hate. they played a violent playoff game last year with a Super Bowl bid on the line on this field. Now, they both are fighting for their postseason lives. This game will not speak of holiday spirit. With Big Ben back in the lineup–he missed their OT loss on the road to the Ravens four weeks ago–the Steelers ease by the Ravens further invigorating their chances at defending their title.
Moneyline Parlay: New England to win over Jacksonville, Phily over Denver and Indy over Jets. The payoff for this moneyline parlay isnt that big, but all we need are these teams to win, not cover the spread. That’s important as the Patriots and Eagles are both favored by more than a touchdown. I dont make these plays ever, but I am doing so today in the spirit of making the out-of-town scoreboard work for the Black and Gold. A one unit wager pays off 1.5 unit in winnings.
I am wagering 100 on each play above. Be back with the latest Bowl Chronicles later this afternoon.
